Blue Jays: Predictions as Free Agency opens

Now that free agency has officially opened, I’m going to take a stab at how I believe the Blue Jays’ offseason needs will be filled. Feel free to bookmark this article for future mocking.

I feel like I’ve been a bit of a broken record here lately, but that’s because we’ve been waiting for free agency to open since the Blue Jays’ regular season concluded over a month ago. It’s time to look ahead to the future and with several roster needs for the Blue Jays in 2018 and beyond, it should be a fairly busy offseason for Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins.

Among the needs are a back-up catcher, a utility infielder, bullpen help, a fifth starter, and likely another outfielder. Atkins was notably quoted as saying he’d like to, “bring in at least one impact arm, and one impact bat”, and the front office should have a little bit of money to work with. The fans continued to come out in droves despite the struggling team in 2017, and the club announced that ticket prices would raise for next year, so they’ll have to spend a bit of money to keep the fans happy.

However, they already have approximately 142 million committed to 19 players, and they had a payroll of roughly 163 million to open last season, so the new additions likely won’t be of the “premium” variety.

There are a bunch of different ways Atkins and Shapiro could choose to spend their dough this winter, and here is my predictions about how things will play out. I did something similar a month ago, but I figured that now that free agency is set to open, it might be fun to make an annual tradition of a “Top 5 predictions”, and then look back and laugh at myself every Opening Day.

Without further adieu…

Bullpen

The Blue Jays have a solid stable of right-handed arms in the bullpen, and it should be a strength for the club in 2018 as long as the group stays healthy. While there were up and down portions of the calendar for the bullpen, they did an impressive job considering the amount of innings they were tasked with on a consistent basis, the most for any ‘pen in the bigs.

The team should expect Roberto Osuna, Ryan Tepera, Dominic Leone, and Danny Barnes back from the right side, with a group like Carlos Ramirez, and Tom Koehler hoping to earn a spot as well. If the Blue Jays ultimately decide to give up on Joe Biagini as a starting pitcher, he’ll factor into the equation as well, so it’s a crowded group. For what it’s worth, I would guess that the front office will non-tender Koehler, but could potentially bring him back as a cheaper free agent, if he’s willing of course. Either way they should have plenty of depth from the right side in the bullpen.

So that leaves my prediction on lefty front, and there are some in house options here as well. I’m going to guess that just one of Aaron Loup, Matt Dermody or Tim Mayza breaks camp with the team, as I feel like the front office would like to bring in a veteran option here, as they tried to do with J.P. Howell in 2017. Loup could end up as a non-tender candidate as well, but he may have performed his way into another season with the Blue Jays.

As far as a prediction for an addition, I’m going to go with Zach Duke. Now 34 years old, Duke spent the 2018 season with the Cardinals organization, and returned from Tommy John surgery to appear in 27 games, throwing 18.1 innings. He had a 3.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.036, so his performance was admirable, especially coming off the surgery.

While there are sexier, more “guaranteed” options on the free agent market like Jake McGee or Mike Minor, the Jays have enough talent in the bullpen that they’ll likely try to get away with a cheaper contract in this spot. With the above mentioned in house options available as well, bringing in a veteran like Duke to the mix will hopefully do everything they hoped Howell’s addition would last season.

Prediction:     1 year for 4 million, with a mutual option for 3.5

Utility Infield

The more the dialogue around the 2018 team continues, the more I’m convinced that the front office will make the middle infield a priority this offseason. In the article I wrote last month (sorry to keep bringing it up), I predicted the team would stick with Ryan Goins whether we like it or not, but a lot has changed for me since then.

We learned that Devon Travis is an injury prone player, something that we already knew, but now even John Gibbons and the medical staff have confirmed that he’ll be hard pressed to ever play a full season. I don’t believe the club will give up on him yet, nor should they, but I do think they’ll bring in suitable insurance, and it’ll be someone who can cover for both Travis and his keystone partner, the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki.

MLBtraderumors.com has the Blue Jays grabbing Eduardo Nunez on a two year contract, and I really like that solution. However, I also believe the Red Sox will be inclined to keep him around, especially with doubts about Dustin Pedroia‘s failing body. For that reason, I think the Blue Jays turn to the trade market in this area, and to a familiar trade partner in the Oakland A’s.

The A’s recently exercised their 2018 contract option on Jed Lowrie, who will make six million in 2018, and had a solid season in Oakland while playing multiple positions. He makes sense for a number of reasons in Toronto, including a reasonable contract cost, multi-position ability, and short term commitment. The Blue Jays are likely hoping that Lourdes Gurriel can ultimately fill the “super-utility” role, so a short term solution may make the most sense for Toronto.

It’s really hard to say what the A’s may want in return for Lowrie, but it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if they shopped him this offseason, especially because they’re not expected to contend in 2018, and have young talent like former Blue Jays prospect Franklin Barreto ready for a full-time shot.

Back-up Catcher

Whether we want to admit it, Russell Martin is getting older and probably shouldn’t be starting 130 games a year anymore. You’d never get him to admit that he can’t do it either, and maybe he still can, but relying on him to stay healthy with that kind of workload is probably a foolish expectation.

There have been plenty of writers who’ve advocated for bringing in a solid tag-team partner for Martin in 2018, and there’s a good argument to be made for that idea to be sure. Keeping him fresh will only help his performance, and hopefully keep him off the DL. The Blue Jays tried all kinds of different solutions in 2017 including Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Raffy Lopez, Luke Maile, Miguel Montero, and more, and none of them were able to grab the job and secure it going forward. Maile arguably performed the best, but offered little to nothing on the offensive side.

As much as it makes some sense to spend money in this area, I don’t see the Blue Jays breaking the bank on Martin’s back-up. There should be some capable solutions to be had for a relatively cheap contract, and I’d explore Atkins and Shapiro to explore those options. Especially knowing that Danny Jansen could be on the verge of earning a big league call-up, and other capable options coming in the pipeline as well.

For these reasons, I’m going to predict the Blue Jays bring in Chris Stewart on a 1 year deal, pairing him with Russell Martin. The two have worked together in the past, both with the Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Stewart is 35 now and will be 36 by Opening Day next year, but he should have some gas left in the tank as he played in 51 games this past season.

The unfortunate part is he didn’t perform very well offensively, hitting below the Mendoza line for a .183 mark. He did hit .286 in 2014 and .294 in 2015 with the Pirates though, so he’s performed more effectively in the recent past, even if he struggled greatly in 2017.

The familiarity with Martin and potential for value on a cheap deal could entice the Blue Jays into bringing him into the fold, especially as they’ll be hoping to give guys like Jansen more seasoning in Triple A.

Prediction:     One year for one million

Starting Pitcher

Here’s where I think the Blue Jays will spend the majority of their money this offseason, and also the spot where I have the potential for the biggest miss in my predictions. While I would love to see them pursue someone like Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, I don’t see the payroll jumping up that much.

Which is why the second tier options like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are so appealing, but unfortunately that’s the case for many other clubs as well. Those two should be mid-rotation arms in a worst case scenario, and I would expect that Atkins and Shapiro will check on them, but I’ll ultimately guessing they’ll land elsewhere.

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Instead I’ll go to the next sub-tier, where I believe the next Blue Jays’ starting pitcher resides, and several other potentially useful options. The thing about established pitching though, is even when you’re talking about a third tier to free agency, there is still a cost associated. Guys like Tyler Chatwood, Andrew Cashner and even Chris Tillman have a realistic shot at multi-year deals for 10 million or more a year. That’s the way baseball values pitching.

For the Blue Jays, I’m going to go with a prediction of Jason Vargas. The savvy veteran may have pitched himself out of a multi-year deal with his performance in the second half, but was an All-star after leading the AL in ERA prior to the All-Star break. Unfortunately things fell apart for him over his final 16 starts, and a 6.66 ERA over that time leaves him in an interesting position this offseason.

He’s never been one to rely on velocity in his arsenal though, and at 35 years old it’s a reasonable expectation to think he could bounce back, and likely do so on a relatively cheap deal. The reason I expect the Blue Jays to pursue a veteran for the rotation is the question marks surrounding Aaron Sanchez‘s health in 2018, and when both Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ become free agents after next season.

To me, Vargas makes sense on a one year deal with a club option for a second year if he performs well. Admittedly that was the toughest position for me to make a choice, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went bargain hunting/gave Joe Biagini another crack at the position. However, it’s the Sanchez finger situation that has me choosing Vargas, and I hope the front office is thinking with a similar mindset.

Prediction:     One year for 9 million, club option for 11 million with 1 million buyout. 

Next: Justin Smoak a finalist for Comeback Player of the Year

There you have it, if my predictions come true than the Blue Jays will have a new stable of players including Jarrod Dyson, Zach Duke, Jedd Lowrie, Chris Stewart, and Jason Vargas. While there isn’t a star in the group, the Blue Jays already have plenty of star power on their roster, and the supplementary players are what could make all the difference in the world in 2018.