Blue Jays: Not a pile of money to work with this offseason

Despite the fact that the Blue Jays will save 18 million on Jose Bautista’s salary in 2018, there’s not a ton of payroll room to work with this offseason for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro.

Free agency will open in just a few days, and it’s one of the most exciting times in the calendar, especially considering there aren’t any games being played. Fans and front offices have all kinds of dreams and big plans for their rosters, and the idea of a fresh slate and a new season is always exciting.

For the Blue Jays, this offseason comes on the heels of an unexpectedly poor 2017 season that saw the team in last place for all but the final day of the regular season. They never once reached .500 after a disastrous start in April, despite the fact that the team was largely comprised of the same veteran stars that had carried them to the ALCS in consecutive years. Losing Edwin Encarnacion was expected to be a blow, but nobody saw this kind of downturn coming.

And because there is so much talent still on the roster, the front office has indicated that they’re not ready to blow things up, or even throw in the towel for the 2018 season. With Josh Donaldson still under contract for another year and all kinds of talented pitching on the roster, it makes sense to take another shot at the playoffs with this group, and hope that a new season brings better health for their impact players.

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There will be differences, most notably the absence of Jose Bautista in right field for the first time in a decade. The Blue Jays will also look to shore up some holes on their roster, and look for solutions in the bullpen, rotation, back-up catcher, utility infielder, and likely the outfield as well. With Bautista’s contract off the books it’s tempting to think there is room to play, but it’s not that simple. The Blue Jays have several significant players that will be getting raises in arbitration, including Donaldson, Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Sanchez, and more, which could make it nearly a wash.

MLBtraderumours.com released an article the other day about the Blue Jays offseason outlook, and pointed to their likely payroll picture. They started the 2017 season with 163.3 million payroll, and currently have 19 players under contract for 142.5, among them are eight guaranteed contracts and 11 more arbitration eligible players. See their article for the full details.

The reality it paints is that the Blue Jays may have around 20 million to spend, depending on how arbitration goes, and ownership’s willingness to spend this offseason. You can’t exactly call the Rogers organization cheap anymore either, as the Blue Jays ended up spending the fourth most in baseball on payroll last season, trailing only the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox. The same website predicted they would spend 26 million on free agents, so let’s say they have 25-30 million to spend.

Even at that, they can’t cover all of their lineup needs with impact players, at least not without making a few trades. Those trades would have to either create some payroll space, or solve a need, and there doesn’t seem to be a great urgency within the front office to trade their minor league assets.

Shapiro and Atkins may have to get a little creative this offseason to accomplish their goals, and that’s nothing new to them, especially the former who worked under tight budget contracts in Cleveland for many years. However, it doesn’t mean that fans will probably have to understand that eating money on Morales or Tulowitzki’s contracts is likely off the table, as is chasing most of the premier free agents.

It will largely be on the group that’s already in place, and with a lot more luck in the health department and a few savvy tweaks this offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays as contenders again. In the era of the second Wild Card it doesn’t take a powerhouse to be in the picture anymore, and this roster isn’t that far away from being in the playoff hunt. They just won’t be able to fix all of their problems by throwing money at it.

Next: Trade route becoming more likely as options are exercised