Blue Jays: Will Bautista’s decline affect Donaldson negotiations?

After the Blue Jays had a front row seat to the decline of Jose Bautista, will that affect their stance on extending Josh Donaldson beyond 2018? Should it?

The Jose Bautista era in Toronto has seemingly come to an end, and for some of us it came much faster than we expected. It doesn’t feel that way if you look at this season in a vacuum, but for those of us who have been following the team for a number of years, it’s hard to believe that #19 won’t be in right field next season, and even more so that most of us are in agreeance that it’s time to both on from the franchise icon.

It’s not particularly strange that a 36 year old’s skills are in serious decline, but rather that Bautista felt like the type that would extend his career a little further, and for what it’s worth he still may. When he approached the final year of his previous deal in Toronto (he signed for a one year deal with options for 2017), it was reported during spring training that he wanted as many as five years on his next contract, and famously stated that he wasn’t interesting in a hometown discount with his next contract. 

At the time, I would have agreed with him for the most part. He had just come off a season with 40 home runs, 114 RBI, and his 6th consecutive appearance in the All-Star game. He’s always been noted for his conditioning, he didn’t play a lot early in his career which cuts down on the wear and tear on his body, and he showed no signs of slowing down. Extending him seemed like a no-brainer.

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Then came 2016, and two injuries later the questions started creeping in. With a little hindsight, we were all thankful the front office chose to wait things out a bit, and they saved themselves an enormous amount of money in the process.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the Blue Jays gave him a five year extension during spring training in 2016, giving him a raise on his final year of his previous contract, and getting four more years of control. If that had gone down then, the Blue Jays would still have another three years remaining on that deal, and would be paying him somewhere between 20-25 million (or more) per year. With aging players, it pays off to wait sometimes.

And unfortunately, that’s where we’re at with Josh Donaldson in the here and now.

Just like Bautista, Donaldson has one year remaining on his deal before he’s eligible for free agency, and the knee-jerk reaction is to extend him and have him as a piece of the core that ushers the new generation of the team into the fold. He’ll only be 32 next year, so he’s three years younger than Bautista would have been at the same time, but otherwise there are several parallels that the Blue Jays may consider.

As general managers change their view and approach to building rosters, less emphasis has been put on power hitters, especially as they get older. It’s hurt plenty of mashers in recent years, such as Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion (his market wasn’t what he thought), and many, many more. While a 32 or 33 year old MVP calibre player may be easily worth 25-30 million a season, it’s awfully tough to pay a 38 year old the same money, especially if he can’t really hit anymore. It’s happening in LA with Albert Pujols now, and he’s still got four years and 114 million owing on his contract, which is a huge handcuff for the Angels.

If you don’t think the Blue Jays’ fans would turn on Donaldson in three or four years if he’s not an MVP calibre hitter, then just look at the wrath being sent Troy Tulowitzki‘s direction this year, or even at Russell Martin at times. Fans, and to a less extent, front offices, want to see some production when a player is taking up that much of the payroll, and when you’re signing someone like Donaldson, you have to accept that there will come a time when you’re overpaying, or at least paying for past performance. Are the Blue Jays prepared to do that?

Personally, I’m in the camp that would like to see him extended, but I worry that with the many examples of rapid descent in baseball including Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, A-Rod, and their own “Joey Bats”, that the lesson may be a little too fresh in the minds of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins to truly get serious about an extension. I hope I’m wrong, but only time will tell when it comes to how many years and dollars Josh Donaldson and his agent will want, and whether the Blue Jays are prepared to pony up.

That said, the Blue Jays have one more year of control of their star third baseman, and I suspect they’ll wait things out just as they did with Bautista in 2016. Based on recent history, it’s hard to blame them.

Next: Pearce's odd fit with the Blue Jays' roster in 2018