Blue Jays: Early prediction about free agent additions

With the Blue Jays needing a few new pieces for their 2018 season whether they want to compete or not. Who might Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro bring in via free agency?

When a major league baseball team wins, the front office tends to try to “keep the band together”, but when they lose then things tend to change in pretty big hurry. For the Blue Jays in 2018, there are many spots already filled for the roster, for better or for worse, and a lot of payroll already committed to veteran players.

Assuming there are no trades this offseason, the Blue Jays are really only looking at needs in right field, a fifth starter, a back-up catcher, and probably some bullpen help. You could argue they could use a utility infielder as well, who could presumably fill in for the oft-injured Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki if either is placed on the DL in 2018, a place they’ve each frequented throughout their careers.

Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro are likely to look at the trade market to fill some of these holes, but there could be solutions on the free agent market, especially if the payroll isn’t terribly restricted. Jose Bautista‘s 18 million is off the books, but there will be substantial raises for Marcus Stroman, Josh Donaldson, Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, Kevin Pillar and more in arbitration, so it’s hard to say what the front office will be working with for payroll.

After they announced that ticket prices would raise in 2018, let’s assume they’ve got some flexibility (but not an endless amount), here are some early predictions for who I think the Blue Jays could bring in to round out the team.

Starting Pitching

The Blue Jays will return Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, and J.A. Happ, to the rotation next year, and will hope that Aaron Sanchez can finally stay healthy and return to make a formidable foursome in Toronto. The front office will likely want to safeguard against Sanchez having issues again, so they may choose to bring in a few options at the back end of the rotation. They’re also planning on giving Joe Biagini another extended look during spring training, so that could factor into the equation, and the depth chart.

My guess is the Blue Jays bring back a familiar face in Brett Anderson. The outspoken left-hander has been pretty solid since signing in Toronto on a MiLB deal, making seven starts and pitching to a 5.13 ERA in 33.1 innings. Those numbers don’t sound that sexy, but Anderson was actually pretty solid in his short cameo, enough so that I would bring him back at the right price. If you take away his rough outing against Kansas City (allowed eight earned runs in 1.1 IP), he only allowed 11 runs across 32 innings, a very respectable number.

The thing about Anderson is the Blue Jays will need additional depth with him as well. If they went into the rotation with both Sanchez and Anderson in their top five, there is an admitted risk of injury that makes me a little uncomfortable. However, say they start Joe Biagini in Triple A, and bring in some additional solid depth to start in Buffalo? Someone like Tom Koehler could fit that description, or maybe others like a Kris Medlen type.

Whatever the front office decides, they would be wise to go with stronger depth than they had in 2017, when we saw way too many starts from the likes of Mat Latos, Casey Lawrence, and company. Anderson shouldn’t cost any more than he did in 2017 (3.5 million on one year for the Cubs), and I think he could be a worthwhile option, even if he’s a gamble with his injury history. If they’re willing to spend more on the position, even better, but Anderson would be a solid, low-cost option.

Bullpen

This might be one of the strongest areas of the team heading into 2018, and it could be a very formidable group if they can add a shut down left-hander to the mix. With names like Roberto Osuna, Dominic Leone, Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and more returning, the Jays should have plenty of depth from the right side, but they could use some help on the left side.

Both Tim Mayza and Matt Dermody impressed in their stints with the big club and could get an extended look in spring training. That said, I’d love to see the Blue Jays address the position with a veteran arm as well, much like they tried to do with J.P. Howell in 2017. Unfortunately that didn’t work out at all, but that happens when you’re building a bullpen. It really can be a crap shoot from year to year.

There are actually some decent options in free agency this year, depending on how much the front office wants to spend on the position. There are names like Jake McGee, Matt Albers, Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, and maybe others like Jerry Blevins if their options aren’t picked up. Francisco Liriano will be a free agent, and as strange as it sounds, he could be a very nice fit in a bullpen if he can’t find a gig as a starting pitcher, but that’s a bit of a stretch obviously.

If it were up to me, I would target a guy like Mike Minor, who pitched out of the bullpen for the Kansas City Royals this season. He might be looking to get back to the rotation as he’s done throughout his career, but he’s proven to be a very effective reliever, posting a 2.55 ERA across 77.1 innings this season. He’s battled a host of arm injuries in his career, but at just 29 (he’ll be 30 on Opening Day), it looks like he’s finally healthy and in a great position to succeed.

His price tag could be ore than the Jays want to spend, but he would offer some potential stability from the left side, and maybe someone who could start in the event of injury, and especially if Mayza and Dermody can hold down a big league gig next year. Minor has a mutual option for 2018 with the Royals, but my guess is one or both parties would be willing to part ways. The Royals will need the cap space, and Minor may want to capitalize after a solid season.

Utility Infield

This is a position where “what I think will happen”, and “what I wish would happen” are two totally different things. I’m sure you can guess where I’m going with this.

This year the Blue Jays relied on Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney to fill the utility roles, and eventually the majority starters in the middle infield with the injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis. Barney is a free agent, and despite the fact that both sides get along great, I’m going to guess that they move on in 2018. Goins is under control through arbitration, and I expect the team will bring him back in some capacity. I know some of you love this, and others absolutely despite it, but that’s what I’m gonna guess here.

The team has players like Richard Urena and Lourdes Gourriel Jr in their minor league system as well for depth, but both players could use some more seasoning before being counted on at the highest level. There are others coming as well like Bo Bichette and eventually Logan Warmoth, but that doesn’t help for 2018.

If it were up to me, I would pursue someone like Jedd Lowrie, who can play all over the diamond and provides a decent bat. He’s got an option in his contract with the Oakland A’s next season, but should be someone the Jays could acquire either through free agency or in trade if it came to it. Still, I expect they’ll start the season with a healthy Tulowitzki and Travis with Goins in the utility role, and Urena waiting in Triple A. Maybe they retain Barney as well, but it doesn’t feel like the team is going to spend a whole lot, especially with the potential in the minor leagues.

Outfield

There are a TON of variables in this picture, at least as far as I’m concerned. Will the Blue Jays continue to roll with Kevin Pillar in centre field (my guess is they absolutely will)? Can they count on Steve Pearce to stay healthy and play in left field? Are they going to bring Ezequiel Carrera back? Is Teoscar Hernandez ready to play full time over the course of a full season?

The one question I didn’t include was whether Jose Bautista will return, which seems to be a decision that’s been already made. With that in mind, the Jays will have to find a full time starter for right field, and it could be Hernandez’s gig to lose.

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There is an argument to be made that if the Jays are serious about competing in 2018, that it’s not exactly wise to rely on a rookie to take over the spot, especially with the needs the lineup is facing. He’s a good fit as far as improved speed and defence, but it’s hard to predict what you’ll get from him once the league has adjusted to him. He greatly impressed in his September stint this year, but that kind of production can’t be sustainable for someone the Jays got for Francisco Liriano, can it?

If I was going to take a stab at what happens here, I’m guessing the Blue Jays pursue someone like Jarrod Dyson as a 3rd/4th outfielder. He would provide solid defence and a spark with speed on the base paths, and shouldn’t cost a whole lot. He provides some insurance in case a) Hernandez can’t handle the job, b) Pillar struggles, c) Pearce gets hurt, and would provide a great late inning, defensive replacement for Pearce as well.

It’s not the sexiest option with guys like Lorenzo Cain and others on the market, but it might make the most sense.

So there you have it, my “way too easy” predictions for the 2018 roster. If the Blue Jays bring in a group like Brett Anderson, Nick Hundley, Mike Minor, Jedd Lowrie, and Jarrod Dyson, it wouldn’t be a guarantee by any means, but it feels like the team would be shored up quite a bit, even if those names aren’t headliners by any means. Again, this isn’t my “wish list”, but rather what I think the team will end up doing. As I said, there are so many variables it can make your head spin, so I could be way off on everything here and I wouldn’t be shocked at all.

Like for example, if the Blue Jays trade Josh Donaldson, then EVERYTHING changes. It’ll be an interesting offseason to follow the rumour mill, and a big indication of where things will stand in 2018 and beyond.

Next: Marcus Stroman needs your vote!