Blue Jays: What to expect from Justin Smoak in 2018

Justin Smoak had a breakout year in 2017 at the age of 30, breaking the Blue Jays’ single season record for HR by a switch hitter, and becoming a first time All-Star as well. What can we expect from him as an encore in 2018?

In the middle of a lot of disappointment this season was the surprising output from Justin Smoak. The first baseman set personal bests in nearly every category, slashing .270/.355/.529 with 38 home runs and 90 RBI. The 38 home runs set a new Blue Jays single season mark by a switch-hitter, passing Jose Cruz Jr’s previous mark of 34.

His batting average was 31 points higher than his previous best, and Smoak had never hit more than 20 home runs and 59 RBI before, so the leap was substantial. He started the season hitting mostly 6th or 7th, and ended up hitting in the heart of the order throughout most of the year once he was moved. All this from a guy we weren’t sure would make the team out of spring training.

He’ll be 31 when spring training begins, so he should theoretically be in his prime for at least another season or two, and high current contract is a phenomenal bargain for the Blue Jays if he can keep this up. He’s slated to be paid just 4.125 million in 2018, with a club option for six million in 2019. That said, the option could increase to either seven or eight million, depending on how many plate appearances he ultimately ends up with. Barring injury, he’ll likely make eight million in 2019, but still, that’s a bargain for this type of production.

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That said, what can we realistically expect from Smoak going forward? There’s a very good chance we just witnessed his career year (which is a shame that it went to relative waste), but it does appear that he’s taken significant steps forward with the bat. I do believe that he’ll be a worthwhile major leaguer, and should be a bargain at the rate he’s being compensated, but I’m in the camp that doesn’t expect to see this sort of production again, even if I’m a believer.

What concerns me a bit is his production in the second half of the season, after he mashed his way to his first All-Star honour of his career. Have a look for yourself:

The power numbers being down doesn’t bother me as much as seeing the batting average being down, and his strikeout numbers being the same despite playing 16 less games in the second half. It was encouraging to see his walk totals go up though too, and his overall numbers weren’t anywhere near what we saw from him as he struggled through 2016.

If I were to make a projection for him for next season, I would guess something like this:

.259/.328/.496, 29 home runs, 86 RBI, 24 doubles, in 154 games and 550 at bats.

I’m not exactly projecting a massive fall off here, and again, at 4.125 million he’s the kind of bargain that makes a significant difference on a roster. However, I do believe that the second half showed us that while Smoak has become an asset to the lineup, we shouldn’t necessarily expect him to be a perennial All-Star by any means.

And for the record, I’m not trashing on the former first round pick at all, and I’m definitely among the believers that he’s figured things out and will have another solid year in 2018, I just don’t think it’ll be quite as good as this year. And that’s okay.

Next: Blue Jays will select 12th in the 2018 amateur draft