Blue Jays and Cardinals: What Might a Donaldson Trade Look Like?

The Cardinals are rumoured to be interested in trading for Josh Donaldson.  What might such a trade look like?

I think that the best response to the rumour that the Cardinals are interested in trading for Josh Donaldson was from Andrew Stoeten, who said “There are few organizations in the game that wouldn’t benefit from having Josh Donaldson on their roster. In fact, the number is actually zero.”  I suspect that many teams will be touching base with Team Shapkins this offseason.

I do not take Mark Shapiro’s statement that he would only trade Donaldson if it made the Jays stronger in 2018 too seriously.  It would hardly help his negotiating position if he publicly said that he is actively looking to trade JD, and will accept a package composed entirely of high-risk prospects.  I suspect that the truth is that the Jays will “listen” on any player at any time, and will consider any trade that they believe to be a win for the Jays.

So, possibly just as a thought experiment … what pieces do the Cardinals have to offer in a Josh Donaldson trade, and which ones would the Jays want to target?

Alex Reyes

Most writers start their Cardinals wish list with Reyes.  When he is on, Reyes is a beast.  He has three plus pitches, including a 97 mph fastball, and was the only pitcher rated as a 65 prospect value by fangraphs entering 2017.  He was ranked as the #4 prospect in baseball by Baseball America entering 2017 (#1 by Baseball Prospectus).  And he has already pitched at the MLB level, with 46 innings at a 1.57 ERA in 2016.

In the most recent complete decade (2000-2009), the median result for a major league pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery is appearing in about 60 games or logging about 100 innings pitched over the rest of his major league career

But there are questions.  His 1.57 ERA in 2016 came with a 3.96 SIERA and a 4.05 xFIP – both 3rd starter level numbers.  His shoulder injury in 2015 raised questions about his durability even before 2017, and his two suspensions for marijuana usage raised questions about his mental makeup.  And of course, the elephant on the table is Reyes’ 2017 Tommy John surgery.  While he appears to be progressing well, Tommy John has no guarantee of full recovery – in fact, it is estimated that only 80% of pitchers who get TJ surgery ever pitch even one more inning at the MLB level, and that the number who return at pre-surgery levels is even lower.  It is significant that Baseball America has dropped Reyes’ prospect position to 12th from 4th in their latest ranking.

This is both positive and negative.  As much as the Cards might want to acquire Donaldson, they might hesitate to trade a 100% healthy Reyes.  The risk associated with the surgery might be enough to get him on the table.  At issue would be whether the Jays would prefer to put their eggs in the high-risk, high-return basket, or spread them out over a package of quality players with lesser upside.

Luke Weaver

Luke is a 24-year-old right handed pitcher, drafted by the Cards in the first round in 2014.  He has a four-pitch mix, with an average fastball, but a strong cutter, and very good control.  In 2017, he pitched 55 innings for the Cards (including starting 9 games) with a 3.23 ERA (3.00 SIERA and 2.68 xFIP).  He is rated as a 50 (on the 20-80 scale) by fangraphs, which translates to a strong #3 starter, so his upside is not as high as Alex Reyes’.  But a 10.99 K/9 with a 2.10 BB/9 in 2017 is nothing to sneeze at.  And he is clearly MLB-ready, so he would solve the Jays’ 5th starter problem for 2018.

Carson Kelly

Going into 2017, Kelly was considered a higher-level version of Reese McGuire.  He was very strong defensively, but his bat was in question.  So naturally, he put up a .283/.375/.459 batting line with a 120 wRC+ with AAA Memphis, before struggling in a late season call-up for the Cards.  He is now ranked as the #51 prospect (and the #3 catcher) by Baseball America.

Kelly is interesting, but with Danny Jansen knocking on the door and Max Pentecost, Reese McGuire, and 2017 draftee Riley Adams coming up fast, catching might be an area of relative strength in the Jays’ system.

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Jack Flaherty

Jack is ranked #57 on Baseball America’s midseason top prospects list.  His stuff is good, with a fastball that runs 91-95 and touches 96, he has good offspeed pitches, and his control has been good (1.56 BB/9 in AA and 2.53 in AAA).  He struggled as a September callup with the Cards, with a 6.06 ERA and a 21% HR/FB.   His biggest weakness is a lack of command (i.e. too many “mistake” pitches), which can be more dangerous at the MLB level.  However, he is projected to be a strong #3 starter with a chance at #2 if he can overcome the command issues.  Like Reyes and Weaver, he is MLB-ready and comes with multiple years of team control.

Tyler O’Neill

The Cards acquired O’Neill from the Mariners in July of 2017.  He has been called a three-outcome prospect: he either homered, struck out, or walked in more than 40% of his plate appearances in the minors this year.  While people tend to focus on his bat, he has a strong arm and decent range in RF, and has good speed despite his 5’11/210lbs build.  But his strength is clearly his bat.  Rated by fangraphs as a 70 for raw power, he hit 31 HR in 557 PAs at AAA this year.  The concern is that his all-or-nothing approach will not play as well in the majors.  And did I mention that he is Canajan, eh?  Born in Burnaby, BC.

Jedd Gyorko

The Jays would ideally like to get someone back in the trade who can play third base – at least until Vladdy graduates in 2019 or 2020.  Jedd Gyorko is the current Cards 3B, and so would be out of a job if they acquired Donaldson.  But Gyorko is versatile – in fact, in 2016 he was the first player in the modern era to hit 30 HR while playing all four infield positions.  His 2.4 and 2.5 WAR in 2015 and 2016 would both translate to over 3.0 over a full (600 PA) season, and he is under team control through 2020 at a reasonable-but-not-cheap $9m/$13m/$13m.

I like Jedd first for his name (kidding), but also because he fills the third base hole and could potentially shift to second if a Devon Travis injury made that necessary.  He could also ultimately become the super-utility player that good teams need. A downgrade from Donaldson’s likely 6.0 WAR in 2018 to Gyorko’s 3.0 is significant, but not so great that it could not be overcome in other areas.

Aledmys Diaz

Diaz was signed out of Cuba in 2014.  His four-year contract expired at the end of 2017, but he is still under team control for another two years.  Diaz had a strong (133 wRC+) 2016 followed by a poor (79 wRC+) 2017, but he plays short, second, third, and left to some degree, and could be of value as an inexpensive super-utility with upside, at least until Lourdes Gurriel Jr. arrives.

Paul DeJong

OK, so this idea is a bit more crazy.  DeJong had an outstanding rookie season for the Cards in 2017, with a 122 wRC+ and a +3.1 UZR/150 at shortstop.  However, he is not expected to continue at that level – he was St. Louis’ #10 prospect entering 2017 and is ranked as a 45 by fangraphs.  So what if the Jays took DeJong, but the Cards took Troy Tulowitzki and the $58m remaining on his contract?

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The bottom line

A Josh Donaldson trade might never happen.  And if it does, it might well be with a team other than the Cards.  But if the Bluebirds and Redbirds were to hook up, the Cardinals should have enough pieces to put together a tempting offer.