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Blue Jays: Looking ahead to the free agent pitching market

By Chris Henderson |
BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 31: Marco Estrada
BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 31: Marco Estrada
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BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 31: Marco Estrada
BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 31: Marco Estrada /

The Blue Jays will have to decide on a fifth starter, make a decision on re-signing Marco Estrada, and hope Aaron Sanchez is healthy in 2018. With that many variables, don’t be surprised if they’re in the market for some pitching help this offseason.

The Blue Jays entered the 2017 season expecting to have one of the strongest rotations in baseball. I feel like a broken record at this point, but if you haven’t been paying attention it goes like this: Aaron Sanchez only made eight starts due to fingernail and blister issues, J.A. Happ missed more than a month, Francisco Liriano struggled and was traded, and Marco Estrada has been inconsistent this year. Marcus Stroman has had an excellent year, but otherwise it’s been a lot of disappointment.

With Estrada set to be a free agent and there still being question marks about Sanchez’s future, the Blue Jays’ front office likely has to take a strong look at the free agent pitching market this offseason. There is some mutual interest between them and Estrada, but even if they do retain him they would be well served to look at least one more arm.

They could go with Joe Biagini, who has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, or even look at other younger options including Ryan Borucki, or Chris Rowley. But if the front office wants to contend in 2018, as they have said they intend to, then they’ll need some experienced depth to help improve on their 2017 performance.

With that in mind, what are we looking at for free agent options this offseason? There are a few solid options to be sure, but it remains to be seen if a) the Jays bring back Estrada, and b) how much they’ll be willing to spend, especially with their upcoming arbitration cases this year. Yesterday, I did a similar piece on outfield options, and as I did in that one, I’ve assigned an arbitrary probability rating based purely on my own opinion. Take it for what it’s worth.

Let’s have a look.

TOKYO, JAPAN – NOVEMBER 12: Shohei Ohtani
TOKYO, JAPAN – NOVEMBER 12: Shohei Ohtani /

Top Tier options

*Update*- Rumours of Marco Estrada’s imminent signing broke after I wrote this piece (because, of course), but I decided it’s still worth having a look at anyway. The top tier options are likely completely off the table if Estrada’s signing becomes official.*

Shohei Otani

We’ve talked about Otani a fair bit around here lately, and with good reason. He has the potential to be one of the most talented players to ever make the move across the pond, assuming he does just that during the upcoming offseason.

He’ll be pursued by literally every team in baseball, so the Blue Jays will have to make a pretty strong case to get him on their roster. Our own Jim Scott made a pretty solid case for just that yesterday.

The 23 year old can throw over 100 miles per hour, has a devastating slider, and is also dominant hitter for the Nippon Ham Fighters. If he were to wait two more years he could command a much bigger salary, but it sounds like he’s done waiting. The Blue Jays could offer him an immediate spot in the rotation, potential DH bats in between (maybe?), and a potentially more comfortable place to live in Toronto than to some US Markets. At the very least, they have to throw their hat in the ring here.

Probability of being a Blue Jays= C-

Yu Darvish

I can remember former GM Alex Anthopoulos lamenting the missed opportunity to sign Yu Darvish, and the Blue Jays could get a second chance this offseason. He’ll likely be the most expensive arm on the list, and he comes with injury risk, but he’s also extremely talented.

After spending his entire career with the Rangers, Darvish was traded to the Dodgers for their stretch run this year, and he’s scheduled to be a free agent at season’s end. The Dodgers may choose to retain him and throw whatever money is needed at the equation, but if he truly hits the open market then the Blue Jays should at least check in.

If he can stay healthy throughout his next contract, Darvish has the potential to be an expensive bargain. He won’t get the 30 million that other aces are looking for these days, so if he can reach his potential then he could offer a lot of value.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/910298711019966465

Probability of being a Blue Jays= C-

Jake Arrieta

I’m listing him here because he’s one of the premier options on the market this season, and there are no guarantees that the Cubs bring him back. He’s become an All-Star since moving to the National League a few years back, and has had a much better second half after struggling before the All-Star break.

He won’t get the same contract he would have if he had been a free agent before this year, but Arrieta is due for a nice payday, one I don’t think the Blue Jays will fork over for the former Cy Young winner.

Probability of being a Blue Jay= D-

Marco Estrada

I could probably include him in the Mid-Tier options on the next page, but I’m putting him here because this is how I would predict the Blue Jays will use their money in the rotation. He wants to return, and the Blue Jays know more about his potential upside than anyone. It’s a fit that makes sense, especially if it’s on a one year, “show me” deal.

*Note- Again, it sounds like the two sides are nearing agreement on an extension, as announced by Jon Morosi on Twitter on Tuesday night.*

Probability of being a Blue Jays= B+

BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 10: Alex Cobb
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 10: Alex Cobb /

Mid-Tier

Alex Cobb

Cobb has spent his entire career in the AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays, so the Blue Jays are intimately familiar with his upside. He had Tommy John surgery and missed more than entire season, but has been back at full strength in 2017 and back to his dominant, yet underrated self.

On the season Cobb is 11-10 with a 3.63 ERA in 171.1 innings, a nice bounce back from the arm injury. He’ll be just 30 years old when the 2018 season opens, and is a candidate to perform better than what his market will likely reward him in free agency.

The Blue Jays were among the teams that were reported to have interest the other day, but will likely be joined by several suitors for his services. He made just four million this season, so he’ll be due for a nice raise wherever he ends up.

Probability of being a Blue Jay= C

Lance Lynn

Lynn is another pitcher that I would argue has been underrated throughout his career. He is 11-7 with a 3.09 ERA in St. Louis this season, and has thrown 180.1 innings for the Cardinals. He missed the 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery as well, but has been very solid throughout his career in the National League.

The 30 year old is not expected to return to St. Louis next season, and like Cobb he could provide tremendous value depending on the contract he ultimately settles on. He’s performed like a top of the rotation starter, but hasn’t always gotten the credit for his work either. Those guys tend to be the type that the Blue Jays target, so don’t be surprised if there are reports of interest.

Probability of being a Blue Jay= C-

Jason Vargas

Vargas was exceptional in the first half of the 2017 season, and earned himself a place on the All-Star team while pitching for the Kansas City Royals. He’s come back down to earth in the second half, but he’s still 16-10 with a 4.19 ERA in 29 starts this year.

I don’t know that I see him as a terribly likely fit, but he’s another underrated type that could end up being a bargain for his next team. Pitching is always valuable, but if Vargas falls in the range where the Blue Jays see solid value, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever. At 34, I’m sure he’s looking for a longer deal than the Blue Jays would likely be interested in, though.

BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 03: Brett Anderson
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 03: Brett Anderson /

Lower Tier options

Brett Anderson

We’ve had a first hand look at the left-hander this fall, and he’s looked pretty good overall. The issue with Anderson of course, is that he’s had a hard time staying healthy throughout his career, something the Blue Jays may shy away from. That said, he’s shown enough upside that if the price is right, there’s good reason to expect mutual interest.

For Anderson, it’ll likely come down to the opportunity that he’s presented, in addition to a guaranteed big league deal. He was signed to Toronto on a MiLB contract after having been designated by the Cubs, so he’s likely looking for a guaranteed contract, and an honest chance at winning an opening day rotation spot.

If the Blue Jays’ other options fall through and Anderson doesn’t like the market he finds elsewhere, a reunion makes some sense, for both parties.

Probability of being a Blue Jay= C+

John Lackey

Lackey is a veteran of the AL East as well, but has spent the last ___ seasons in the National League with the Chicago Cubs. He’ll be 38 next season, and it’s expected that the Cubs will move on from him and look at other rotation options for 2018 and beyond.

He’s 11-11 with a 4.62 ERA in 28 starts this season, and has provided 159.2 innings for the defending World Series champions. He’ll be 39 at the start of next season, so it’s entirely possible he calls it quits at the end of the year, but he’s probably got something to offer a big league team as well.

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He won’t be asking for a long contract, and he shouldn’t be terribly expensive either, so it’s possibility there’s a fit here. Admittedly, it feels like a pretty big long shot though.

C.C. Sabathia

I could have listed many different pitchers here, but I chose to go with Sabathia because I am mildly intrigued with him, depending on the price of course. He’s had a decent season for the Yankees, going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA in 24 starts. During spring training it wasn’t necessarily a guarantee that he’d be in the rotation, so it’s been a nice season for the former staff ace.

His contract finally comes to an end this offseason, and he should have something to offer a big league rotation for a season or two. If the Yankees don’t bring him back on a much more club-friendly deal, it could be worth checking on the big lefty, especially if he’s still looking for a job late in the offseason.

We’re also into the lower tier options now, so this is where teams take risks, especially with aging veterans who are looking for a guaranteed job and pay cheque. If Sabathia ends up fitting that category, don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays at least ask about their long time division rival.

Other possibilities: Jaime Garcia, Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Cashner, Hector Santiago, and more

Next: 7 reasons Otani should consider Toronto this offseason

Who did I miss? Do you think the Blue Jays will spend money on their rotation? As I said yesterday, your guess is as good as mine, so feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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