Blue Jays: Looking ahead at the FA outfield market

After a disappointing offensive season from their outfield picture, the Blue Jays could be in the market for an upgrade for 2018 and beyond. Which outfielders might be available this offseason?

If we’re to believe the Blue Jays’ front office about their 2018 philosophy, it sounds like they’ll be looking for some better luck and a chance to contend in 2018. There is plenty of talent on the roster already, but in a season full of injuries and underperformance, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins would be foolish to enter next season with the exact same roster.

With that in mind, there aren’t a great deal of places for the team to upgrade, unless of course they choose to look at the trade market as well, both for additions and subtractions. With better health, the entire infield should return, and the bullpen likely won’t be all that different. There are needs in the starting rotation, and in depth all over the diamond as well, but the most significant change is set to take place in the outfield, as almost nobody expects Jose Bautista to return in 2018.

That spot could go to some combination of Teoscar Hernandez or even Ezequiel Carrera (don’t laugh, it could happen), but if the Jays want to contend it’s likely the place that makes the most sense to spend some money, other than the rotation of course.

If they’re going to do that on the free agent market, what sort of options are going to be available? It’s not like the crop that’s coming in 2019, but there are plenty of serviceable veterans who will be looking for a new contract, so Shapiro and Atkins have some options. There could be some additional options if their teams decide to buy them out (Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton (his opt-out) ), but I’ve left it to players who will be outright free agents, with one exception. I’ve also assigned an arbitrary “Probability of being a Blue Jay” score to each player, that is based on nothing more than my best guess.

Let’s have a look.

Top tier options

Lorenzo Cain

The 31 year old has had an excellent season with the Kansas City Royals, poising himself for a pretty solid pay day, and likely a guaranteed ticket to a new team. He’ll be among the pricier options, but he could be worth looking at if the market doesn’t treat him the way he and his agent are hoping for.

He’s hit .303/.366/.446 with 14 home runs, 46 RBI, and has earned 4.5 WAR in 2017. He’s also swiped 24 bags, and managed to stay healthy throughout the campaign, something he’s struggled with a bit throughout his career.

The problem with Cain of course, is that his game largely relies on speed, and that’s a difficult thing for someone on the wrong side of 30 to retain. He is an excellent hitter as well, but his speed and defence have been his main calling card throughout his career, so it’s hard to say what he’ll be bringing to the table as a 35 year old.

Probability of being a Blue Jay?=  C

J.D. Martinez

Martinez was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and it’s worked out well for for his new club. He’s hit 40 home runs, has 90 RBI, and has earned 3.6 WAR as an corner outfielder. He sports a slash line of .297/.374/.679 (!), and has improved on his strong first half performance since the trade.

Despite the fact that he’s loaded with talent, this one is a big long shot for the Blue Jays. He’ll be expensive, and he also profiles as the type of hitter the Blue Jays have relied on for the last number of years, a philosophy they seem intent on getting away from.

Probably of being a Blue Jay=  D

Michael Brantley

Brantley has an option for 11 million next year in Cleveland, and would cost them a cool million to buy him out. I think he’s got too much upside for Cleveland to give up on him at that price, but if they decide otherwise then I think he’s a very interesting possibility, though the Blue Jays may be reluctant to bring in another injury prone player.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  D-

Mid-Tier Options

Jay Bruce

The Blue Jays were tied to Bruce many times throughout the last couple of seasons, but a deal never came to fruition. He was eventually traded to Cleveland, and he’s had a great season, slugging 34 home runs and knocking in 94 runs batted in.

He’ll likely be affordable, and the Blue Jays may be interested in his left handed bat, but he would be best served as a DH/1st baseman these days, two positions the Blue Jays have plenty of depth for already.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  C-

Carlos Gonzalez

This one intrigues me, mostly because I think he’s more valuable than people give him credit for. That’s often the case with players who’ve made themselves known while playing in Colorado’s hitter’s haven, but I’m not sure it’s totally fair. And please, don’t point to Troy Tulowitzki as proof of this theory either. You have to be healthy to hit, and he’s been anything but that while in a Blue Jays’ uniform.

Gonzalez feels like the type that might accept a 1 year deal to re-establish his value, and it might not be all that expensive. That makes sense of course, as he’s hit just .254 with 13 home runs and 54 RBI in a down season for the 3x All-Star. He’ll be 32 on opening day next year, so he should have some solid baseball left in him, and could be an oddly decent fit.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  B-

Melky Cabrera

Would the Blue Jays consider a reunion with the Melk-Man? His defence leaves a little to be desired, but the switch-hitter can still hit for average, and has even added 17 home runs and 79 RBI this year.

It’s hard to say what his market might look like this offseason, and he could be a name to keep an eye on. Ideally the Blue Jays would like to have someone with better defensive skills in the outfield, but Cabrera is the type of hitter that the lineup badly needed this season, so his fit in the lineup makes sense that way at least.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  C+