Blue Jays: Looking ahead at the FA outfield market

After a disappointing offensive season from their outfield picture, the Blue Jays could be in the market for an upgrade for 2018 and beyond. Which outfielders might be available this offseason?

If we’re to believe the Blue Jays’ front office about their 2018 philosophy, it sounds like they’ll be looking for some better luck and a chance to contend in 2018. There is plenty of talent on the roster already, but in a season full of injuries and underperformance, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins would be foolish to enter next season with the exact same roster.

With that in mind, there aren’t a great deal of places for the team to upgrade, unless of course they choose to look at the trade market as well, both for additions and subtractions. With better health, the entire infield should return, and the bullpen likely won’t be all that different. There are needs in the starting rotation, and in depth all over the diamond as well, but the most significant change is set to take place in the outfield, as almost nobody expects Jose Bautista to return in 2018.

That spot could go to some combination of Teoscar Hernandez or even Ezequiel Carrera (don’t laugh, it could happen), but if the Jays want to contend it’s likely the place that makes the most sense to spend some money, other than the rotation of course.

If they’re going to do that on the free agent market, what sort of options are going to be available? It’s not like the crop that’s coming in 2019, but there are plenty of serviceable veterans who will be looking for a new contract, so Shapiro and Atkins have some options. There could be some additional options if their teams decide to buy them out (Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton (his opt-out) ), but I’ve left it to players who will be outright free agents, with one exception. I’ve also assigned an arbitrary “Probability of being a Blue Jay” score to each player, that is based on nothing more than my best guess.

Let’s have a look.

Top tier options

Lorenzo Cain

The 31 year old has had an excellent season with the Kansas City Royals, poising himself for a pretty solid pay day, and likely a guaranteed ticket to a new team. He’ll be among the pricier options, but he could be worth looking at if the market doesn’t treat him the way he and his agent are hoping for.

He’s hit .303/.366/.446 with 14 home runs, 46 RBI, and has earned 4.5 WAR in 2017. He’s also swiped 24 bags, and managed to stay healthy throughout the campaign, something he’s struggled with a bit throughout his career.

The problem with Cain of course, is that his game largely relies on speed, and that’s a difficult thing for someone on the wrong side of 30 to retain. He is an excellent hitter as well, but his speed and defence have been his main calling card throughout his career, so it’s hard to say what he’ll be bringing to the table as a 35 year old.

Probability of being a Blue Jay?=  C

J.D. Martinez

Martinez was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and it’s worked out well for for his new club. He’s hit 40 home runs, has 90 RBI, and has earned 3.6 WAR as an corner outfielder. He sports a slash line of .297/.374/.679 (!), and has improved on his strong first half performance since the trade.

Despite the fact that he’s loaded with talent, this one is a big long shot for the Blue Jays. He’ll be expensive, and he also profiles as the type of hitter the Blue Jays have relied on for the last number of years, a philosophy they seem intent on getting away from.

Probably of being a Blue Jay=  D

Michael Brantley

Brantley has an option for 11 million next year in Cleveland, and would cost them a cool million to buy him out. I think he’s got too much upside for Cleveland to give up on him at that price, but if they decide otherwise then I think he’s a very interesting possibility, though the Blue Jays may be reluctant to bring in another injury prone player.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  D-

Lower Tier Options

Jarrod Dyson

The former Royal has spent the season with the Seattle Mariners, and he’s performed pretty consistent with how he has throughout his career. In 346 at bats, he’s hit .251/.324/.350 with 28 stolen bases in 35 attempts. At 33, he’s one of the rare breed who maintain their speed into their 30’s and he could be a candidate to keep it up, as he doesn’t have as much wear and tear on the body as others his age.

He could be a descent fit for the roster, especially if the Blue Jays are interested in having Teoscar Hernandez as one of the full-time options. Both he and Dyson could play 2/3’s of the third with others moving around, and that wouldn’t be the worst case scenario at all.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  B

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Curtis Granderson

Like Jay Bruce, Granderson has been a rumoured option for the Blue Jays in the past, but he found his way to the Dodgers for their playoff stretch. He’s hit just .206 in his age 36 season, but still gets on base at a .321 clip, and has hit 23 home runs and added 60 RBI.

He’s not what he used to be, but he could be used in much the same way that Dyson would fit the roster, and likely wouldn’t cost a whole lot.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  C+

Jose Bautista

Don’t rule it out completely, even if it feels like we’re in the midst of witnessing his final days with the Blue Jays. It felt the same way entering the 2016 offseason, but the Blue Jays ended up bringing him back on a one year deal after both parties didn’t find what they were looking for on the open market.

That said, this feels like the longest shot on the list, even if he’ll go down as one of the all-time greats in the Blue Jays’ uniform.

Probability of being a Blue Jay=  D-

Notables mentions: Rajai Davis, Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, Seth Smith, etc.

Next: Donaldson is the key to the short term future

Who did I miss? Do you think the Blue Jays will add to the outfield at all? Let me know what you think, because your guess is as good as mine.