Blue Jays: Biggest surprises of the 2017 season

The 2017 season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Blue Jays, and there were several surprising factors that contributed to the disappointing outcome.

There aren’t many guarantees in the game of baseball, and the Blue Jays were harshly reminded of that this season. After having reached the ALCS in back to back seasons, hopes and expectations were high for this group, as it was largely made up of the same winning formula. Sure, Edwin Encarnacion moved on to Cleveland, but the front office brought in some reasonable talent in free agency, and the young stars were another year older.

Unfortunately, it’s been a comedy of errors in many ways, and despite a roster with all kinds of talent, the Blue Jays are in the cellar of the AL East, where they’ve been for the entire season. Turning a legitimate contender into a basement dweller usually doesn’t happen this quickly, and many of us believe that this team could have a different year in 2018 with largely the same group. Some tweaks will most certainly take place, but there are some things you can’t predict.

And there were many surprises for the Blue Jays this year. Some were of the pleasant variety, but many more were unfortunate disappointments.

Justin Smoak

Let’s start with the positive side of things before we get into the depressing talk. Justin Smoak has had an incredible season, and I challenge anyone to claim they saw this coming. There was reason to believe he could improve on the numbers he’d put up throughout his career, but I don’t think anyone expected he would be the Blue Jays’ most consistent and productive hitter over the course of season.

Thinking back to spring training, this was a guy who many of us argued the Blue Jays should outright release, and admit the “mistake” they made extending him in last year. It was a bitter pill for Blue Jays’ fans to see him at first base with Encarnacion wearing another jersey, but it honestly was a blessing in disguise for the organization.

He received full time at bats early in the season, and his hot start ensured he stayed in the lineup on a consistent basis. He started the year hitting 6th or 7th in the order with regularity, and now he’s moved right into the heart of the lineup, becoming the most feared hitter on the team outside of a healthy Josh Donaldson.

He’s currently slashing .283/.362/.560 with 37 home runs and 85 RBI in 138 games played. He was named to the All-Star team, and will easily surpass his career highs in every offensive category. He’s earned 3.3 WAR, and did it all for just over four million in salary?

Saw that one coming? Liar.

Aaron Sanchez

The Blue Jays were supposed to have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2017, just as they did last year when they reached the postseason. Marcus Stroman has had the best year of his career, but outside of his performance you could argue that there have been disappointments all around. J.A. Happ has been very good since he’s been healthy, but he missed a big chunk of time. Marco Estrada has been hot and cold, and Francisco Liriano was pretty brutal before he was traded to the Houston Astros.

Then there was Aaron Sanchez. The 25 year old was supposed to take another step toward being an ace and Cy Young contender following a 2016 season that saw him lead the American League in ERA. It was also supposed to be the year that his workload restrictions would be lifted, and we’d see what he could do without any limitations from the organization.

Instead, Sanchez has made four trips to the disabled list, and it’s looking increasingly unlikely that he’ll make it back to a big league mound this season. He will need time to build up his arm and that’s a lot more difficult without the minor league system to use as a tune up, which ended earlier in the week. Sidenote- kudos to the Dunedin Blue Jays for being co-champions of the Florida State League!

Injuries aren’t the easiest thing to predict, but would you have believed me in February if I told you he’d only throw 36 innings because of blister and finger issues? It’s been a minor problem for him in the past, but this season it’s completely wiped him out.

It’s hard not to think about what kind of difference the former 1st round pick could have made in 2017, and it was all spoiled because of blisters and fingernails. Go figure.

Below average defence

Yes, Kevin Pillar is a human highlight reel, regularly wowing us with his wall-crashing grabs. We’re obviously not talking about him here. And I’m not really talking about Jose Bautista or Steve Pearce‘s play in the outfield either, because I think we all knew that would be a bit of a weakness.

I’m talking more about the guys who’ve thrived in the past. A hobbled Troy Tulowitzki wasn’t nearly the asset he used to be, and he’s been out most of the year anyway, finishing the season with 66 games played. Ryan Goins has always been an outstanding defender, but he rated at -0.1 dWAR, which is alarming and puzzling given his past performances. Darwin Barney has a Gold Glove award in his cabinet, but has been worth -0.2 dWAR in his age 31 season.

Josh Donaldson has greatly improved his performance lately as well, much like he has on the offensive side since being fully healthy. Still, he rates at just 0.3, and has been considered an above average asset in the past (1.5 dWAR in 2015). Russell Martin has missed a great deal of time on the DL as well, and his replacements have been pretty rough, outside of Luke Maile of course. And of course, Devon Travis has missed all but 50 games this season, so it was a steady dose of Goins and Barney before the September call-ups, and Richard Urena‘s arrival.

For a team that had a quality infield on paper, there have been a lot more struggles than I ever would have expected. If healthy, I believe this group could be very solid on defence, and look for the Blue Jays to build a bit more depth there before 2018.