Blue Jays: If they trade him, where could Estrada go?

With his recent surge on the mound, speculation will ramp up that Marco Estrada could end up being traded in August. Which teams might still be interested in acquiring him?

It’s a tricky thing trading for a rental pitcher, and even more so when they’re being acquired in August. A team really has to believe in their playoff chances in order to make that type of trade, because you’re basically getting a half dozen or so regular season starts, and however long you last in the playoffs.

However, there are plenty of teams in need of pitching as the stretch run approaches, and even though the non-waiver deadline has come and gone, teams are still able to make moves in August, it’s just a little more difficult.

Prior to the non-waiver deadline, the Blue Jays traded Francisco Liriano to the Houston Astros, and Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians. Both pitchers are on expiring contracts and didn’t represent foundational pieces, but trading pitching is never a good sign towards your chances of competing in the current season. For the Blue Jays, it was a chance to bring back some players that could help soon, and in the Liriano trade they brought back Teoscar Hernandez, in addition to veteran outfielder, Nori Aoki.

If they have a chance to move other expiring contracts like Marco Estrada‘s, or even Jose Bautista‘s in August, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins do just that. Bautista has already been rumoured to have been on the revocable waivers, but there hasn’t been any reports of the same for Estrada, yet anyway.

If the Blue Jays decide to move him for the remainder of the season, it won’t preclude them from bringing him back next year, and could help them in the long run. It could also be a fun couple months for Estrada if he can latch on to a playoff team, and will only serve to improve his stock in free agency.

So, who might be interested?

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals were the team that knocked the Blue Jays out of the 2015 playoffs, and the majority of their core from that group is still together. However, that’s about to change this offseason, as Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and more will be eligible for free agency, which may close the window in Kansas City for a little while.

At the moment the Royals are just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card race, so they’re right in the thick of things. If the Dayton Moore and the front office were going to throw in the towel on the season, they would have been selling at the deadline. Instead they chose to roll the dice with this group one more time, hoping to have a strong final two months and have a chance to return to the World Series.

The biggest achilles heel for the Royals has been their starting pitching, as they’ve dealt with a variety of injuries and underperformance. Jason Vargas was an All-Star, but has largely struggled in the second half and currently sports a 13-6 record with a 3.40 ERA. Danny Duffy has been serviceable with a 7-7 record and a 3.48, but Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy has mostly struggled, with 4.83 and 4.68 ERA’s respectively. They traded for Trevor Cahill prior to the deadline, but he’s currently on the DL deadline with a shoulder impingement.

They also had reported interest in Estrada before the deadline and weren’t really able to land a significant rotation upgrade, so some of the ground work could be laid already between the two clubs. For that reason, they seem like the most likely fit, if the Blue Jays decide to move him.

Houston Astros

For as incredible as their season has been, the Astros haven’t had a great deal of luck with their rotation in 2017. Dallas Keuchel has missed significant time with injury, making just 14 starts so far. That said, he’s made a significant impact when he has been on the mound, as he’s 9-2 with a 2.87 ERA. He was hit hard during his start on Tuesday, but chances are the Astros can rely on him going forward now that he’s healthy.

Beyond him, they’ve finally got Colin McHugh back from the DL as well, as he’s made just four starts thus far. He hasn’t been great yet, but he should be an asset before the season is out. Charlie Morton has had a surprisingly good year at 9-4 with a 3.78 ERA, and Mike Fiers has been serviceable as well at 7-6 and a 4.03 ERA.

Lance McCullers Jr. may be the wild card, as his wonky back has his back on the disabled list. If the Astros knew they could rely on his health as well, maybe there’s enough upside with the total group. As it is, they could probably use the help, and someone with the playoff experience and pedigree that Estrada boasts could be useful for the American League’s best team.

The two teams already hooked up on a deal for Liriano, so they’re familiar with each other’s systems and may even have had talks about Estrada before the non-waiver deadline. To me it feels like the Blue Jays won the Liriano for Hernandez/Aoki deal, especially given the former’s performance with Houston thus far, so maybe Houston will shy away from dealing with Toronto again. However, if they’re looking for a potential rotation upgrade, Estrada is among the few viable candidates they could explore in August.

Hang tight- Keep him in Toronto

The Blue Jays may decide that their playoff hopes are still feasible, even if they have a pile of teams to leapfrog in the Wild Card standings. Or maybe they decide they’d like to keep Estrada in house, and evaluate him first hand before re-signing him in the offseason. He’s had a rocky year to be sure, but outside of a two month stretch in June and July, he’s been an excellent starter since early in 2015. They may also decide they need to keep him around, if for no other reason than the team needs a few starters they can rely on.

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Whether or not that warrants the Blue Jays bringing him back is another question, though it sounds like there is interest from both parties about keeping the 34 year old in Toronto. There’s no doubt his stock has taken a big hit, but that may play into the Blue Jays’ chances of retaining him anyway.

Next year the club will return the trio of Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, and hopefully a healthy Aaron Sanchez to their rotation, so they could certainly use a productive Estrada if they have designs on contending in 2018. It’ll come down to cost of course, and his performance over the remainder of the season will go a long way toward determining that number.

On one hand, if he continues throwing seven innings of shutout baseball, his price will go back up substantially and could make it more difficult for the Jays to lock him up. On the other, if he shows more signs of regression then they may not want him back anyway, so it’ll be an interesting development to follow. The Blue Jays will obviously hope he can continue to pitch the way he has over his last four starts, as he’s been in All-Star form.

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One way or another the Blue Jays are finding ways to keep things interesting despite their current occupation in the basement of the AL East. And whether they decide to rekindle trade talks with anyone about Estrada or not, it’s great to see him throwing well again.