Blue Jays: If they trade him, where could Estrada go?

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals were the team that knocked the Blue Jays out of the 2015 playoffs, and the majority of their core from that group is still together. However, that’s about to change this offseason, as Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and more will be eligible for free agency, which may close the window in Kansas City for a little while.

At the moment the Royals are just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card race, so they’re right in the thick of things. If the Dayton Moore and the front office were going to throw in the towel on the season, they would have been selling at the deadline. Instead they chose to roll the dice with this group one more time, hoping to have a strong final two months and have a chance to return to the World Series.

The biggest achilles heel for the Royals has been their starting pitching, as they’ve dealt with a variety of injuries and underperformance. Jason Vargas was an All-Star, but has largely struggled in the second half and currently sports a 13-6 record with a 3.40 ERA. Danny Duffy has been serviceable with a 7-7 record and a 3.48, but Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy has mostly struggled, with 4.83 and 4.68 ERA’s respectively. They traded for Trevor Cahill prior to the deadline, but he’s currently on the DL deadline with a shoulder impingement.

They also had reported interest in Estrada before the deadline and weren’t really able to land a significant rotation upgrade, so some of the ground work could be laid already between the two clubs. For that reason, they seem like the most likely fit, if the Blue Jays decide to move him.

Houston Astros

For as incredible as their season has been, the Astros haven’t had a great deal of luck with their rotation in 2017. Dallas Keuchel has missed significant time with injury, making just 14 starts so far. That said, he’s made a significant impact when he has been on the mound, as he’s 9-2 with a 2.87 ERA. He was hit hard during his start on Tuesday, but chances are the Astros can rely on him going forward now that he’s healthy.

Beyond him, they’ve finally got Colin McHugh back from the DL as well, as he’s made just four starts thus far. He hasn’t been great yet, but he should be an asset before the season is out. Charlie Morton has had a surprisingly good year at 9-4 with a 3.78 ERA, and Mike Fiers has been serviceable as well at 7-6 and a 4.03 ERA.

Lance McCullers Jr. may be the wild card, as his wonky back has his back on the disabled list. If the Astros knew they could rely on his health as well, maybe there’s enough upside with the total group. As it is, they could probably use the help, and someone with the playoff experience and pedigree that Estrada boasts could be useful for the American League’s best team.

The two teams already hooked up on a deal for Liriano, so they’re familiar with each other’s systems and may even have had talks about Estrada before the non-waiver deadline. To me it feels like the Blue Jays won the Liriano for Hernandez/Aoki deal, especially given the former’s performance with Houston thus far, so maybe Houston will shy away from dealing with Toronto again. However, if they’re looking for a potential rotation upgrade, Estrada is among the few viable candidates they could explore in August.

Seattle Mariners

This is the team that probably makes the most sense, at least in terms of need. The Mariners have been absolutely snake bitten by injury in their rotation, and yet here they are just a half game back of the second Wild Card spot with the Kansas City Royals.

They lost Drew Smyly for the season to Tommy John surgery, and they’ve also been without Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma for the vast majority of the year. The icing on the cake came this week when James Paxton joined the rest of them on the DL with a strained pectoral muscle on his throwing side. He’s expected to be out at least three weeks, and maybe longer. Given his emergence and the lack of other quality options in the rotation, Estrada could be a big difference maker in Seattle.

They should have Paxton back in plenty of time for the playoffs, and the team is hopeful that “King Felix” will be healthy by then as well. They’ll need to get there first though, and relying on a rotation on Ariel Miranda (7-5, 4.65), Yovani Gallardo (5-7, 5.38), Erasmo Ramirez (4-4, 5.10), and whomever else they come up with, just isn’t going to get it done.

The Mariners have a very potent offense, and are on the cusp of a playoff position at the moment, so it would make sense for them to call the Blue Jays and see if there’s a trade to be had. If they’re not fans of Estrada, you’ve gotta think they’re looking around to find some help from somewhere, right?

Hang tight- Keep him in Toronto

The Blue Jays may decide that their playoff hopes are still feasible, even if they have a pile of teams to leapfrog in the Wild Card standings. Or maybe they decide they’d like to keep Estrada in house, and evaluate him first hand before re-signing him in the offseason. He’s had a rocky year to be sure, but outside of a two month stretch in June and July, he’s been an excellent starter since early in 2015. They may also decide they need to keep him around, if for no other reason than the team needs a few starters they can rely on.

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Whether or not that warrants the Blue Jays bringing him back is another question, though it sounds like there is interest from both parties about keeping the 34 year old in Toronto. There’s no doubt his stock has taken a big hit, but that may play into the Blue Jays’ chances of retaining him anyway.

Next year the club will return the trio of Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, and hopefully a healthy Aaron Sanchez to their rotation, so they could certainly use a productive Estrada if they have designs on contending in 2018. It’ll come down to cost of course, and his performance over the remainder of the season will go a long way toward determining that number.

On one hand, if he continues throwing seven innings of shutout baseball, his price will go back up substantially and could make it more difficult for the Jays to lock him up. On the other, if he shows more signs of regression then they may not want him back anyway, so it’ll be an interesting development to follow. The Blue Jays will obviously hope he can continue to pitch the way he has over his last four starts, as he’s been in All-Star form.

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One way or another the Blue Jays are finding ways to keep things interesting despite their current occupation in the basement of the AL East. And whether they decide to rekindle trade talks with anyone about Estrada or not, it’s great to see him throwing well again.