Blue Jays: What the Wild Card picture really looks like

With the Blue Jays just 5.5 games back in the Wild Card standings, it’s tempting to think that they still have a chance to make a run at the playoffs this season. While it is statistically possible, there are a lot of hurdles, including as many as seven teams to leapfrog in order to qualify.

It’s a tall order, but it is statistically possible the Blue Jays to make a run at the playoffs. I’ll admit, it feels unlikely, and even the philosophy of the front office would indicate they believe the same, albeit with optimism about next year. Forgive me if the image of Jim Carrey from “Dumb and Dumber” comes to mind when we’re talking about this, but there is a lot of baseball left to be played.

The biggest problem for the Jays isn’t the 5.5 games that they need to make up in the Wild Card race, but rather how many teams they need to surpass in order to get there. As things stand as of this writing, the Blue Jays have six teams between them and the Kansas City Royals, who currently occupy the second Wild Card position.

The other teams include division rivals, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, as well as the Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers. At 52-59, there would have to be an awful lot go the Blue Jays’ way for the remainder of the season, but there are still plenty of reasons to keep tuning in this season, contending of not.

For interest sake, let’s have a look at the teams the Blue Jays would need to surpass in the standings, and how feasible that may be.

Just ahead of the Blue Jays

Texas Rangers (4.5 of the 2nd WC spot)

The Rangers have had a season that has been equally disappointing to that of the Blue Jays, and have basically thrown in the towel for 2017. They still have a talented core, but the front office elected to trade some crucial pieces in Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, and Jonathan Lucroy to the Colorado Rockies, signalling that their focus is on next year and beyond.

Adrian Beltre added a significant highlight of their franchise history, collecting his 3000th career hit, and cementing himself into the Hall of Fame once he retires from the game.

Fan Graphs gives them a 4.2% chance of taking a Wild Card spot, so things don’t look good for them either. Stranger things have happened though, and they’re only 4.5 games behind the Royals for that second spot.

Minnesota Twins (3.5 back of the 2nd WC spot)

The Twins weren’t supposed to be contenders this year, but they’ve outperformed their expectations, even if they’ve faltered a bit recently.

They started out as buyers prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but quickly reversed course after a stretch of losses. They acquired Jaime Garcia from the Atlanta Braves, and then dealt him to the Yankees after just one start with Minny. It’s hard to fault the front office for getting creative, because again, they weren’t planning on being contenders this year.

Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier and others have lead them to a 53-56 record, and they’re currently just 3.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot, and have a 5.2% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. They’re seemingly resigned themselves to focusing on the future as well, but a hot streak could make them change their minds in a real hurry.

And then….

Los Angeles Angels (3.0 back of the 2nd WC Spot)

The Angels have had an up and down season, but still find themselves in the hunt, despite being below .500. They’ve had great seasons from obvious candidates like Mike Trout, but have also enjoyed a breakout year from Andrelton Simmons, who is hitting .301 with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases, to add to his all-world defence.

As with many teams that are out of the playoff picture, the Angels are lacking in the pitching department more than anything. They have been playing better lately, winning six of their last ten, but it feels like they needed to add to their rotation for them to become serious contenders. FanGraphs gives them a 10.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Baltimore Orioles

This team is a curious case, as they were expected to be serious sellers at the trade deadline, and were even rumoured to be shopping Zach Britton and Brad Brach in trade talks. Neither player garnered the kind of offer that made Dan Duquette pull the trigger, so both remain with the team as well as the rest of their veteran core.

The even more unexpected part of their deadline was that the Orioles actually became buyers, bringing in Tim Beckham and Jeremy Hellickson to join the team. Neither qualifies as a bold move and were likely more intended at improving the team next year and beyond, but they certainly help the Orioles’ chances in the short term as well.

With guys like Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Britton, and more coming off the books after 2018, Duquette would love nothing more than to take a final run with this group. As has always been the case, their starting pitching will need to improve, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially when their offence is clicking. Fan Graphs says those chances are currently set at 7.9%.

So, how does it look for the Jays?

If the Blue Jays are going to make an improbable playoff run, step one will be to take advantage of their upcoming series with the New York Yankees, which gets underway tonight. The Yankees occupy the first Wild Card position, with a 59-51 record. Granted, sweeping the Yankees may not make a dent in their deficit, but taking down one of the leaders certainly helps the cause.

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The Blue Jays were soft sellers at this year’s deadline, and based on the support from the fan base you would think that they’re still in contention, which obviously motivates the front office to keep them interested. Fan Graphs gives them a 4.9% chance of making the postseason, with 4.6% in the Wild Card, and just a 0.3% chance of catching the Red Sox for the division lead.

As we’ve already stated, the chances are pretty slim for the Blue Jays to get back there, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to make things interesting. With the addition of the second Wild Card spot, it really does keep teams in the hunt far longer than ever before.

The Yankees look strong and added some significant pieces before the non-waiver deadline, and the Royals (57-53) have a strong core with a history of success, with the additional motivation of knowing that their window is closing. Outside of the two Wild Card leaders and maybe the Rays, I’m not sure there are many teams to bet on to go to the postseason, but baseball has a way of surprising us.

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Still, it’s a tall order for the Blue Jays to make a comeback in 2017, simply because of the volume of teams they need to leap frog.