Blue Jays: What’s the trade market for Estrada like now?

With Marco Estrada on an expiring contract and the Blue Jays all but out of the race, it’s expected that the front office will look to shop him prior to the trade deadline. With the Kansas City Royals making a trade for pitching on Monday, after being the rumoured trade partner for the change-up artist, where else could he land?

While Marco Estrada continues to struggle on the mound, there will always be a great need for pitching the MLB, especially in the Wild Card era. With someone like Estrada, there is enough of a recent track record to believe that a change of scenery could net you a borderline ace, even if he’s looked like a minor leaguer since the calendar flipped to June. (Sorry Marco..)

He’s had ERA’s of 3.13 and 3.48 in 2015, and 2016, and looked to be off to the same type of season in April and May. Since then however, his season has fallen apart along with his struggling teammates, with a 9.11 ERA in June, followed by a mark of 10.38 in July across nine starts combined.

The reality for a pitcher with Estrada’s skill set, is that they have to locate in order to find success. The Mexican born hurler has one of the best changeups in baseball (when he’s right), but his fastball barely touches 90 miles per hour. His ability to really “pitch” has given him a great deal of success, but when he’s not hitting his spots then things unravel pretty quickly, as we’ve seen far too frequently of late.

With all of that said, he appears to be healthy and is young enough at 34 to dismiss complete regression, especially with the way he started the season. For contenders looking for a relatively cheap gamble on a rotation boost, he could be a worthwhile roll of the dice.

In a piece much like yesterday’s about Jose Bautista, this is my own speculation based on a few rumours and what makes sense for other team’s rotational needs. Let’s have a look.

Teams who’ve already upgraded

Minnesota Twins

The Twins made a deal with the Braves to acquire Jaime Garcia, giving them a modest lift in their rotation at a reasonable cost. Garcia is a solid starter having a good year, but he’s not an ace by any means.

That said, Marco Estrada hasn’t been pitching like an ace lately either, so it’s hard to say how much interest there might be. Estrada will be owed roughly 6 million for the rest of the season, so the buyer would have a cost involved, albeit a reasonable one for most clubs. The Twins may not want to spend another six million, but their rotation could use the additional boost. Plus, if Estrada can find himself, he could be a solid addition to the front of the rotation, joining Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios.

The Twins have been giving Bartolo Colon starting opportunities lately, so if they are serious about contending this year, they may look for additional help.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals were the most likely destination for Estrada before their Monday trade, and it’s possible the two teams could still work out a deal. The Royals acquired three pitchers in a trade with the San Diego Padres, including left-handed starter Trevor Cahill.

Estrada shouldn’t require a significant trade return by any means, so it’s entirely possible the Royals throw a little more money at their playoff run this year. With as many pending free agents as they’ve got coming up this offseason, this really could be the last kick at the can for this group.

They currently have Danny Duffy and Jason Vargas performing well from the left side, but their right-handers in Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy have been hit pretty hard this year. That said, they both have better ERA’s than Estrada, so maybe there isn’t much of a fit there now, unless they are particularly big fans of his playoff experience.

Other possibilities who could use rotation help

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are reportedly interested in Sonny Gray, but they’ll have competition for his services. As will be the case with many teams, they might be looking at fall back options as well, and unfortunately Estrada now fits that bill for many teams.

The Mariners have Felix Hernandez and James Paxton to form a solid one-two punch, but they could use an upgrade, especially one with playoff success and experience like Estrada has had. Losing Hisashi Iwakuma and Drew Smyly were big blows to the rotation, so they could use the help.

Milwaukee Brewers

Maybe a reunion with his old team would make some sense, as the Brewers could use a boost to their staff if they’re going to be serious about contending this year. They’ve had a solid performance from Jimmy Nelson, and a resurgent season from Matt Garza, but the rotation hasn’t been all that hot outside of that. Brent Suter has pitched well since moving into the rotation, but it’s hard to say if he can keep it up.

Estrada is familiar with the Brewers’ organization, and they shouldn’t have any problem paying for his salary for the remainder of the year either. They’re a team that’s looking to build from within in many ways, so Estrada’s low-cost, high potential upside, probably makes the most sense as an approach for their front office.

He spent the 2010-2014 seasons in Milwaukee before the Blue Jays traded for him, sending Adam Lind the other way. At the time, Estrada was pretty much unknown to Blue Jays fans, and figured to compete for the long-man position in the bullpen. Little did we know that he’d go on to become one of their best starters over two and a half seasons. With all due respect to Lind, that deal certainly worked out in the Jays’ favour.

Division Rivals, not likely to happen

New York Yankees

The Yankees could use an upgrade in their rotation, and you can bet that GM Brian Cashman has been on the phone a great deal this month. We’ve already watched them swing a big trade with the Chicago White Sox to bring in Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see them look for a rotation upgrade as well.

Cashman and the Yankees have been conservative over the last few years, especially when it comes to sacrificing the development of their system, and/or trading prospects. However, as we’ve already discussed, Estrada’s cost shouldn’t be terribly high, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Yankees at least consider it.

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They’re currently lining up Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and Luis Severino as their top three, with Jordan Montgomery and Luis Cessa filling out the back end. While both have had admirable efforts this year, the Yankees could use an upgrade if they’re serious about contending in 2017. You can never have enough pitching, especially in the playoffs.

Boston Red Sox

I can’t see them being interested, as their top five is pretty solid. Moving on.

Tampa Bay Rays

Hard to imagine them as buyers, especially within the division.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles looked like they were all but dead in the race, but they’ve been playing better baseball recently and have made their way up the standings. They’ve been talked about as a seller, but the reality is they’re only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. With a veteran roster that could want to take another run at the playoffs with the likes of Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones and more on the roster, it’s feasible that they could end up as buyers.

Whether or not they could hook up with the Blue Jays on a deal or not is a whole other thing, and it seems unlikely. Estrada would be a fit as a rental for them though, so I could see their being some interest. In their dreadful rotation, Estrada’s ERA doesn’t look nearly as bad.

Next: Blue Jays' trade deadline untouchables

So, who did I miss today? As I said, this was speculation on my part, so feel free to let me know if you see another team as a likely buyer for Marco Estrada in the comments section below.