Blue Jays: Ranking and Dissecting the First Half

With a record of 41-47 to close out the first half, the Blue Jays have come up short of their expectations in 2017. We’ll take a look at what’s gone well, all that’s gone wrong, and what the future may hold for the team.

It’s been one of the most inconsistent seasons I can remember as a baseball fan, which has culminated in the Blue Jays sitting in last place in the AL East, and 8.5 back of the Red Sox. They’re 5.0 games back in the Wild Card race as well, but have to leapfrog seven teams in order to take one of the two spots. That’s a tall order, even at this early (ish) stage of the season.

Not everything has been bad, as we’ve watched Justin Smoak transform into an All-Star before our eyes, and he will represent the club at the Mid-Summer classic on Tuesday. He’ll be joined by Roberto Osuna, who has been as dominant as any closer in baseball this year.

However, the bad far outweighs the good for the Blue Jays this season, which isn’t hard to figure out when you look at how things have gone. They’ve had tremendous struggles to overcome in the injury department, including the likes of Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and more on offence, and Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano and plenty more on the pitching staff.

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It hasn’t just been the injury issues though, as even those who’ve managed to stay healthy have largely struggled on the diamond. One could argue that their two All-Stars are the only players who’ve outperformed expectations, and that’s not exactly a recipe for a contending team.

Let’s have a look at each department of the team, and break down what’s gone wrong for such a talented roster.

Pitching Staff: C+

Injuries really have taken their toll on the pitching staff, and I’d make an argument that they’ve overachieved in some ways, especially when you account for the DL time spent by crucial arms.

Aaron Sanchez went from the 2016 AL ERA leader, to a completely irrelevant arm in the first half of this season. Fortunately he’s healthy and back on the mound now, but it’s been frustrating that he hasn’t been able to build on such a strong 2016 performance. Assuming he can stay healthy, the Blue Jays should get tremendous value from him in the second half, but unfortunately it’s been next to nothing to this point in the campaign.

J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano also spent time on the DL, with Happ in particular missing a big chunk of time. They’ve also received next to nothing from J.P. Howell, who has spent nearly all of the season on the DL, and are currently missing Joe Smith, who was one of their most effective relievers before his injury.

Throw in names like Bo Schultz, Leonel Campos, Glenn Sparkman, and the early issues with Roberto Osuna, and the bullpen has overcome an awful lot in their mediocrity. Guys like Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes have really stepped up, so it’s not all doom and gloom on the staff either. Marcus Stroman has been their best starter, and likely should have been an All-Star as well.

As a unit they carry a 4.53 ERA, good for seventh in the American League. With a healthy Sanchez, and hopefully an improved performance from Happ and the struggling Marco Estrada, the pitching staff really isn’t the biggest problem in Toronto, despite the less than stellar first half. They have had solid performances from Osuna and Stroman, and hopefully the others can have a stronger second half to improve the numbers for the talented group.

Defence: C-

Kevin Pillar has been up to his usual tricks in centre field, routinely crashing into the wall, or diving into the turf to take away another potential hit. Hopefully this will be the year that he’s rewarded with a Gold Glove trophy, as he’s put together another highlight reel filled campaign with the glove.

With names on the roster like Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Ryan Goins, and other strong defenders, it’s surprising to see that the team is sitting at -2.5 bWAR on defence as we hit the All-Star Break. Pillar is sitting at 0.8 dWAR earned thus far, but the situation isn’t pretty for many others.

Bautista is -1.2 on defence, and Ezequiel Carrera is close behind at -1.0, despite playing far fewer games in the outfield. “Zeke” has looked lost at times in left field, dropping balls and making odd choices about where to throw the ball. Steve Pearce hasn’t been much better in left either, sitting at -0.6. Shockingly, even Ryan Goins is in the red, sitting at -0.2.

On the plus side, Russell Martin has earned +0.3, and Donaldson has done in the same in limited action. Otherwise, things are pretty rough on the defensive end in Toronto, which is a little surprising considering how strong the defence has been in the last few years. We expected a few adventures in the corner outfield, but a negative 2.5 team rating didn’t seem like it would be in the cards, and yet here we are. Acquiring Miguel Montero won’t help either, as Luke Maile had earned the only other positive mark over 0.5, finishing with 0.6 before hitting the DL.

Coaching Staff: C

The coaching staff has been criticized a fair amount this year, and in some ways they’re deserving of just that. In their defence, the team has dealt with a ton of injuries, and I think the pitching staff in particular deserves some credit for piecing things together.

John Gibbons continues to be a divisive figure among Blue Jays’ fans, but you have to give him credit for the way he has stuck up for his players throughout the season. He’s loyal, maybe even to a fault, but it appears that he has the respect of his clubhouse, and the front office as well.

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His entire supporting staff was rewarded with an extension a few days ago, in an unexpected move given the team’s recent struggles. Gibbons’ contract had been guaranteed until the end of 2019, and the front office choose to extend the rest of the staff to the same timeline. Given the timing of the move, it would be surprising to see them make changes to the staff this season, but stranger things have happened.

Fan base: A

As far as the fan base is concerned, they (you) likely deserve the most credit of anyone involved in the first half of the 2017 season. Fans have come out to the Rogers Centre in droves, with the Jays ranking first in the AL and 4th in baseball with 39,489 as their average home attendance. The fan interest on social media continues to be strong as well, and the front office will have to take that into consideration as they near the trade deadline.

Fan interest hasn’t been this rampant in Toronto since the early 90’s and Rogers knows how much better their books look when the team is winning. Doing a complete rebuild seems unlikely, and it would also be a disservice to a fan base who has supported the team in great numbers over the last two and a half years.

It’ll be interesting to see if things wane as the season wears on, especially if the front office does trade a few key pieces, but overall I believe the Blue Jays’ fan base is deserving of as much or more credit than any other facet of the organization.

Next: Jays Journal Podcast with guest, Jackie Redmond

How would you assess the first half? Let’s be honest, I could have turned this into a novel here, but all in all this is a talented team that has greatly underperformed, however you stack things up.