Blue Jays: Ranking and Dissecting the First Half

Pitching Staff: C+

Injuries really have taken their toll on the pitching staff, and I’d make an argument that they’ve overachieved in some ways, especially when you account for the DL time spent by crucial arms.

Aaron Sanchez went from the 2016 AL ERA leader, to a completely irrelevant arm in the first half of this season. Fortunately he’s healthy and back on the mound now, but it’s been frustrating that he hasn’t been able to build on such a strong 2016 performance. Assuming he can stay healthy, the Blue Jays should get tremendous value from him in the second half, but unfortunately it’s been next to nothing to this point in the campaign.

J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano also spent time on the DL, with Happ in particular missing a big chunk of time. They’ve also received next to nothing from J.P. Howell, who has spent nearly all of the season on the DL, and are currently missing Joe Smith, who was one of their most effective relievers before his injury.

Throw in names like Bo Schultz, Leonel Campos, Glenn Sparkman, and the early issues with Roberto Osuna, and the bullpen has overcome an awful lot in their mediocrity. Guys like Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes have really stepped up, so it’s not all doom and gloom on the staff either. Marcus Stroman has been their best starter, and likely should have been an All-Star as well.

As a unit they carry a 4.53 ERA, good for seventh in the American League. With a healthy Sanchez, and hopefully an improved performance from Happ and the struggling Marco Estrada, the pitching staff really isn’t the biggest problem in Toronto, despite the less than stellar first half. They have had solid performances from Osuna and Stroman, and hopefully the others can have a stronger second half to improve the numbers for the talented group.

Hitting: D-

If someone wanted to make a bet with me in April that Justin Smoak was the only offensive All-Star, I would have put the deed to my house on the line. 2017 has just gone to show that nothing is for certain in the game of baseball, and that certainly applies to the slugging first baseman, but in the good way.

On the downside, pretty much everyone else has disappointed, whether due to injury or underperformance. Devon Travis rebounded from a dreadful start to break the Blue Jays’ franchise record for doubles in May. Unfortunately he’s now out for what looks like the rest of the year, after having surgery to clean up problems in his troublesome knee.

Kevin Pillar was the team’s best hitter in April, but has since struggled and regressed closer to career norms. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki spent a good portion of the first half of the disabled list, and I’m not sure that either has been 100% healthy yet this year. Their numbers aren’t where fans and pundits would expect them to be, but injuries have their way of doing that to a player’s slash line.

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/881650749813510144

The team batting average of .244 is 12th in the American League, and it’s been awful with runners in scoring position, coming in at .226. They’ve been heavily reliant on the long ball as usual, only this year they haven’t been hit with the same frequency. It hasn’t been a successful formula.

With Jose Bautista on an expiring contract (assuming his option isn’t picked up), and Donaldson a year away from free agency, there will certainly be chatter around the Blue Jays as a deadline seller. Bautista is a 10-5 candidate, so he would have to approve a potential trade, but he may entertain it to go to a contender, especially if he knows the Blue Jays won’t be bringing him back next year. Losing changes a lot of things.

Defence: C-

Kevin Pillar has been up to his usual tricks in centre field, routinely crashing into the wall, or diving into the turf to take away another potential hit. Hopefully this will be the year that he’s rewarded with a Gold Glove trophy, as he’s put together another highlight reel filled campaign with the glove.

With names on the roster like Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Ryan Goins, and other strong defenders, it’s surprising to see that the team is sitting at -2.5 bWAR on defence as we hit the All-Star Break. Pillar is sitting at 0.8 dWAR earned thus far, but the situation isn’t pretty for many others.

Bautista is -1.2 on defence, and Ezequiel Carrera is close behind at -1.0, despite playing far fewer games in the outfield. “Zeke” has looked lost at times in left field, dropping balls and making odd choices about where to throw the ball. Steve Pearce hasn’t been much better in left either, sitting at -0.6. Shockingly, even Ryan Goins is in the red, sitting at -0.2.

On the plus side, Russell Martin has earned +0.3, and Donaldson has done in the same in limited action. Otherwise, things are pretty rough on the defensive end in Toronto, which is a little surprising considering how strong the defence has been in the last few years. We expected a few adventures in the corner outfield, but a negative 2.5 team rating didn’t seem like it would be in the cards, and yet here we are. Acquiring Miguel Montero won’t help either, as Luke Maile had earned the only other positive mark over 0.5, finishing with 0.6 before hitting the DL.

Coaching Staff: C

The coaching staff has been criticized a fair amount this year, and in some ways they’re deserving of just that. In their defence, the team has dealt with a ton of injuries, and I think the pitching staff in particular deserves some credit for piecing things together.

John Gibbons continues to be a divisive figure among Blue Jays’ fans, but you have to give him credit for the way he has stuck up for his players throughout the season. He’s loyal, maybe even to a fault, but it appears that he has the respect of his clubhouse, and the front office as well.

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His entire supporting staff was rewarded with an extension a few days ago, in an unexpected move given the team’s recent struggles. Gibbons’ contract had been guaranteed until the end of 2019, and the front office choose to extend the rest of the staff to the same timeline. Given the timing of the move, it would be surprising to see them make changes to the staff this season, but stranger things have happened.

Fan base: A

As far as the fan base is concerned, they (you) likely deserve the most credit of anyone involved in the first half of the 2017 season. Fans have come out to the Rogers Centre in droves, with the Jays ranking first in the AL and 4th in baseball with 39,489 as their average home attendance. The fan interest on social media continues to be strong as well, and the front office will have to take that into consideration as they near the trade deadline.

Fan interest hasn’t been this rampant in Toronto since the early 90’s and Rogers knows how much better their books look when the team is winning. Doing a complete rebuild seems unlikely, and it would also be a disservice to a fan base who has supported the team in great numbers over the last two and a half years.

It’ll be interesting to see if things wane as the season wears on, especially if the front office does trade a few key pieces, but overall I believe the Blue Jays’ fan base is deserving of as much or more credit than any other facet of the organization.

Next: Jays Journal Podcast with guest, Jackie Redmond

How would you assess the first half? Let’s be honest, I could have turned this into a novel here, but all in all this is a talented team that has greatly underperformed, however you stack things up.