Blue Jays: We haven’t quite seen the real Kendrys Morales just yet

I will start this piece by saying I am a big fan of Kendrys Morales. I have been since his breakout season in 2009 with the Los Angeles Angels. He has been pretty much as advertised. A switch-hitting power hitter who will DH and play occasional 1st base. However, Blue Jays fans still have yet to see the real Morales.

Kendrys Morales has hit 15 home runs, driven in 44 runs, and has a slash line of .262/.308/.476. His wRC+ is at 104 and has a -0.1 fWAR. Now, DH’s typically don’t bring a ton of value in the WAR department due to the fact defense and baserunning work against them. Unless you’re posting monster type seasons like the legendary David Ortiz, anything between 0.0 to 2.0 is pretty standard for a DH.

I want to highlight some career numbers for Morales compared to what he’s done through 295 plate appearances in 2017:

• Career: .272/.329/.466/.795, .341 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 7.2 BB%, 20.7 K%
• 2017: .262/.308/.476/.785, .331 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 5.8 BB%, 18.0 K%

Morales isn’t too far off from his career norms. They stats are quite similar to his career, but there are a few trends that are inhibiting Morales from being at least at his career norms if not better than his career.

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The first thing that you notice from Morales is the batted ball profiles, where he is currently pulling the ball in 42.8% of his at bats. His career pull percentage is 39.8%. He’s going up the middle (center) of the diamond at 32.1% compared to a career number of 35.6%. He’s going to the opposite field 25.1% of the time compared to a career total of 24.6%.

Morales is clearly looking to pull the ball in 2017, which is hurting his batting average. Based on those career numbers, Morales is a pretty good spray hitter. He divides where he hits the ball pretty well. Though based on the batted ball numbers, he is trying to pull the ball more than ever.

Another trend in 2017 that is working against Morales is the number of groundballs he’s hit. He’s hitting ground balls at 50.2% of the time (career 46.9%) and fly balls 30.2% of the time (career 34.4%). When Morales gets the ball on the ground, it usually ends up being a ground out or a double play. He’s grounded into 12 double plays so far in 2017. He hasn’t gotten the ball into the air as often as he has in the past.

Combine the batted ball profiles, with a contact percentage of 73.1%, and you have the higher than normal strikeout percentage, fewer walks, and a clear focus on trying to pull the ball instead of going to all fields like he has for his career. Whether or not that’s in large part due to Morales knowing he’s hitting in a hitter friendly park for the first time in his career, Morales isn’t quite the guy he has been through his career.

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All of that being said, he’s been productive and almost exactly as advertised when the Blue Jays signed him in the off-season. His power has come up big many times in 2017 and is a large reason why the Blue Jays were able to climb out of their early season meltdown. All it will take is a slightly different approach for Morales and we can see him go on a tear. I think that will happen the more Morales gets comfortable with the Rogers Centre and the rest of the AL East.