Blue Jays: If MLB had expansion draft, who would the Jays protect?

As the NHL approaches their expansion draft, it got me wondering who the Blue Jays would protect if they had to choose only 10 players.

The NHL has been buzzing with news of their expansion draft this week, as the league is facing the addition of the Las Vegas Golden Knights. When a new team is added to the league, each franchise goes through a process prior to the expansion draft, where they choose a set number of players to protect in the expansion draft. The whole thing reveals a lot about how each club views their assets.

With that in mind, it had me wondering who the Blue Jays might protect if the MLB went through the same process. In the NHL model, each team is allowed to protect either 8 or 10 players, depending on the formula they choose between forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders. For the purpose of this exercise let’s pretend the Jays have 10 spots to work with.

I’ve determined my list using a variety of factors including age, potential, salary, contract commitment, etc, so it’s not a list of who I view as the best players on the team by any means. I’ve also decided to keep it to players who have made an MLB appearance this season, so for example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not make the list, but Dwight Smith Jr. would be eligible.

The Obvious Choices

Marcus Stroman

Stroman is just 26 years old, and is having another solid season as his stock continues to rise. He’s 7-3 with a 3.15 ERA thus far, and is putting the struggles of last season’s first half far in the rearview mirror. He is under club control through the 2020 season, and is making just 3.4 million this year. He’s about to get more expensive, but at this point he’s definitely worth a lot more than the Jays have to pay him in 2017.

Aaron Sanchez

While this season hasn’t been anything to write home about for Sanchez, there’s no denying his talent and potential. It appears likely that we’ll see him back on the mound in the near future as well, so hopefully he can put together a healthy second half and remind Jays fans how good he really is. He won’t be a free agent until 2021 either, and is making just $535,000 this season.

Josh Donaldson

The Blue Jays have had one of the better bargains in baseball with Josh Donaldson since he’s arrived, and he really just got “expensive” this season, making 17 million in 2017. While that is a lot of money, the “Bringer of Rain” is well worth the dough when he’s healthy, which he has been since returning from the DL.

He’s eligible for arbitration one more time in 2018 before becoming a free agent in 2019. The Blue Jays will likely try to extend him before he hits that point, but his health and performance will go a long way to determining what kind of contract he lands. If he performs as the MVP contender that he can be, 17 million will look like chump change.

Roberto Osuna

Osuna has been one of the best closers in the American League since making the team in 2015, and there’s no reason to think the 22 year old is going to slow down now. He has a 2.64 career ERA and has saved 74 games, including his latest on Monday night.

I’m not a big believer in the value of closers per say, but I do think Osuna is a tremendous asset, and for the sake of this exercise there’s no way I’d let him go unprotected.

The likely choices

Justin Smoak

I probably could have included Smoak in the above section, but there’s nothing wrong with falling in a category just below the names already mentioned.

The biggest surprise of the 2017 season has 20 home runs already, matching a career high (and we’re only in June!), and is signed through next season, with an option for six million for 2019. Assuming he doesn’t regress back to the Smoak we used to know, the option could be exercised yesterday.

Kevin Pillar

Pillar may have cooled off quite a bit since his red-hot beginning to the season, but he’s still one of the more valuable players on the roster, especially when you consider his contract. He is making just $555,000 this season, and won’t be a free agent until 2021, lining him up with guys like Stroman and Sanchez as well.

“Superman” will hit arbitration for the first time next year, but he will still be a bargain relative to his production. Factor that in with the years of club control, and he’s a no brainer.

Getting tougher

J.A. Happ

Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman are obvious choices to protect because of their youth, contract control, and talent. When it comes to the veterans on the staff, it gets a lot more difficult.

I chose to go with J.A. Happ over Marco Estrada, mostly because of the extra year of club control. Estrada will be a free agent at the conclusion of this season, while Happ has a year remaining on his contract. Injuries have stunted his production so far this season, but the man went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA last season.

Devon Travis

I debated this one a lot, but I can’t ignore Travis’ talent, especially when you factor in the club control and contract cost as well. It’s indisputable that he’s been an injury problem for the Blue Jays throughout his tenure, but at just 26 years old, I would gamble on him as an asset worth protecting. I feel like an expansion team would gobble him up in a moment’s notice, but maybe I’m wrong.