Blue Jays: Aaron Loup is starting to look like his old self

The Toronto Blue Jays have had many pleasant surprises through the season’s first 2 months and a bit. The most discussed surprises include Justin Smoak, Joe Biagini, and Joe Smith. One of the most underrated and not talked about surprises is that of Aaron Loup, who is starting to look like his old self again.

Loup has had a rough go of things the past few years for the Toronto Blue Jays. Loup arrived in the MLB in 2012 and has been a mainstay since. He posted some good seasons for a reliever with 0.9 fWAR in 2012, 0.7 in 2013, and 0.3 in 2014. Then came the struggles. Loup was at a 0.2 fWAR in 2015, but he got really unlucky with a .339 BABIP and 4.46 ERA. However, look past the ERA and he’s at a 3.72 FIP and 2.89 xFIP. He wasn’t as ineffective as it may seem.

It got worse for Loup in 2016 with a 5.02 ERA and .342 BABIP. The caveat to his performance last year is that Loup was dealing with arm injuries all season long. The average fastball velocity for Loup was down to 91.1 MPH from 93.2 MPH in 2015. With the loss in velocity, the walks went up from 1.49 BB/9 in 2015 to 2.51 in 2016.

For some comparison sakes, let’s look at 2015, 2016, and 2017:

• 2015 – 9.78 K/9, 1.49 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9, .339 BABIP, 69.8 LOB%, 55.2 GB%, 20.7 HR/FB%
• 2016 – 9.42 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, .342 BABIP, 72.9 LOB%, 40.0 GB%, 18.2 HR/FB%
• 2017 – 9.82 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9, .339 BABIP, 80.9 LOB%, 54.1 GB%, 5.6 HR/FB%

It’s interesting to see that the K/9 has largely remained the same, as has the BABIP. There really isn’t a pitcher who has more unlucky hits against him than Loup, but the difference between 2015 and 2016, is the fact that he is able to get more ground balls to get out of innings, and he hasn’t allowed the home run ball nearly as often as in seasons past.

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Another added benefit that’s contributing to Loup’s effectiveness in 2017 is the contact rates against him. He’s getting more soft contact and allowing less medium and hard contact against him. The opposition isn’t barreling Loup up as much as they have the past two seasons.

Now, the few things that Loup will need to improve on more before he is back to being fully trusted by John Gibbons is the walks and facing left-handers. Lefties are currently slashing .297/.405/.361. For Loup’s career, he’s held left-handers to a .214/.290/.305 slash line. The 4.09 BB/9 is a concern as for his career, he’s at 2.40.

There are some positive trends for Loup as he continues to throw the ball and seems to be getting better each time out. He still gets unlucky quite often as evidenced by the BABIP. He is throwing the ball harder than a season before despite the average MPH being .8 higher than a season ago, but he is stranding more runners, getting more ground balls, and he isn’t allowing the home run ball like he has the past two years.

Next: Blue Jays select UNC shortstop Logan Warmoth

Loup will need to fix some things, but he definitely is trending in the right direction to becoming another surprise for the Blue Jays in a season where they’ve had quite a few nice surprises.