Are the Blue Jays Well Prepared for a Possible Rebuild?

Optimist – A Plethora of High-Upside Players

It’s no secret that the Blue Jays’ roster is an aging one. Whether it is this season or the next, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins will have their hands full as they try to smoothly transition away from the current core of Bautista, Donaldson, Tulowitzki, and Martin.

Luckily, the Blue Jays have many prospects in the minor leagues that profile as high-upside talent to go along with young stars already at the MLB level. Even without trading away veterans for more quality prospects, the Blue Jays roster in 2-3 years looks like it could already boast some of the game’s premier young stars.

In the rotation, the Blue Jays figure to have a very solid top three of Sanchez, Stroman, and Reid-Foley while in the infield, the Jays can expect to see Tulowitzki, Travis, Tellez, and possibly even Guerrero Jr. handling the everyday duties. The outfield could boast two of the most athletic players in the game in Kevin Pillar, or “Superman”, and Anthony Alford, a football player turned baseball wunderkind. Russell Martin would likely be done catching every day at that point with McGuire or potentially even Pentecost looking to secure the starting catcher job. The bullpen, too, looks to have a very strong core with Osuna closing and Biagini acting as his primary set-up man (although the Blue Jays could look to transition Biagini into the rotation) with high-upside prospects like Greene joining the mix.

All in all, the Blue Jays already have a very strong team they can roster in the near future. If the 2017 team continues to struggle and a rebuild, or even retool is necessary, top prospects acquired from trading away Estrada, Bautista, Liriano, Happ, and potentially even Donaldson could further help the Blue Jays build a young, athletic team. It is also important to mention the 2018 free agent class, hailed by front offices and analysts as the best to ever hit the market. By then, if the Jays take on an overhaul, they could have the money to lure in a big star or multiple above-average players to finish the rebuild.

So while Jays fans have finally become accustomed to some winning baseball, sacrificing one or two years for a potential dynasty looks like an opportunity that is too good to pass up.

Pessimist – Lack of “Big-Name” Prospects

There is no question that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have done an admirable job in restocking the farm system that Alex Anthopolous gutted out. However, the lack of multiple “Big-Name” prospects, such as a Yoan Moncada or an Andrew Benintendi, should worry both the front office and fans if the Blue Jays decide to pursue a rebuild. There is arguably only one top prospect in the Blue Jays system and that is Guerrero Jr., who himself is a borderline top prospect due to his young age and relatively limited experience.

Taking a look at the Cubs or Red Sox as an example, the path to success was led by a boatload of top 30 prospects. Think Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi for the Red Sox and Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Russell (etc, etc.) for the Cubs. As the Jays lack multiple potential superstars, the front office will have to either nail trades involving veterans like Estrada and Happ or hope that some of the current prospects really take a big step forward in their development.

It is also important to consider that players like Pillar, Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna will only be a few years from free agency at that point so even if the front office manages to surround them with a winning roster, another continuous retool may be in store in 4-5 years.

Another caveat to the rebuild idea is that some of the Jays top prospects have their flaws and may not pan out. For example, while players like Alford, Urena, and Greene have tantalizing potential and could develop into above-average major league players, their minor league careers so far have been extremely inconsistent and it is not unknown for prospects to become busts in a very short period of time.

Although the rebuild idea could appeal to those seeking a brighter future that is similar to where the Cubs and Red Sox are right now, the safer option for the Blue Jays is likely the continuous retool process. That way, the management can keep the fans (and bandwagons) interested with “name-value” veterans while quietly stocking up young talent through small trades and successful drafts.

Realist – Anything Can Happen, Be Ready

The path that the Blue Jays organization takes will all be decided based on the team’s overall record come July and the MLB trade deadline. If the Jays are sparked by Sanchez, Happ, and Donaldson’s return and surge to a playoff spot, expect the front office to add to the roster in hopes of securing another deep playoff run. However, if the season truly appears to be over, then a rebuild or at least a retool of the roster seems inevitable.

Whichever the case, Blue Jays fans should not worry the slightest bit. The front office is led by Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, who were at the helm during the Cleveland Indians rebuild. Add in the brains of Ben Cherington, the mastermind of the Boston Red Sox retool, and you have some of the game’s most premier executives that can change an old team into a young juggernaut.

If management feels like the current core will not suffice in bringing a championship to Toronto, they have the skills and assets to overhaul the roster and build the Blue Jays into a perennial World Series contender. On the other hand, if the new regime thinks that such a drastic change to the organization is not necessary, they can also pursue the option of slowly giving the reigns to the younger core while still contending for the playoffs each year.

From a realistic perspective, a whole lot has to go right for the Blue Jays to become the next Cubs or Red Sox. Trades have to be executed to perfection, drafts have to be prosperous in acquiring young talent, and the need of the present must be balanced with the needs of the future. Frankly, the margin for error is slim and it could a long period of time before the Blue Jays become relevant once again.

That being said, Blue Jays fans should not fear change, but rather embrace it if the time comes. With so many talented young players, both at the MLB and MiLB level, to go along with a capable front office, this team could become younger, more balanced, and primed for years of success with a short rebuilding phase.

The past two years have been a great ride and many fans (and those bandwagons) appear to fear the time when there is no longer a Jose Bautista or a Josh Donaldson on the team. However, if, just if the time comes when the front office signals the start of a rebuild, be prepared to embrace it with open arms as it will do more good to the Jays organization, than harm.

Next: Blue Jays: What’s wrong with Jose?