What is the Blue Jays’ Window For Contention? Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

The 2017 season is finally upon us! Jays Journal is introducing a new weekly series where writers take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are three sides to every argument; comment below to share which view you agree with the most for each article.

This week, Jays Journal writers take a look at the Blue Jays’ window for contention, and how the start of the 2017 season may influence the future of the organization.

The Blue Jays have started off their season with an abysmal 1-8 record and they already sit 5.5 games back of the division leader, the Baltimore Orioles. While the pitching has produced to an All-Star caliber level, the problem with the team seems to lie in the once dynamic offense.

Through 10 games, the Jays offense has averaged 2.8 runs/game, a far cry from the 4.69 runs/game they averaged in 2016. Key hitters like Devon Travis and Russell Martin are hitting below .100, Jose Bautista has yet to hit a home run, and worse yet, the Blue Jays just lost the 2015 AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, with a calf injury.

Optimists are saying that there are still 152 games left in the season, while pessimists are pointing to the fact that only three teams have ever made the playoffs while starting with a 1-7 record or worse.

If the Blue Jays are out of the playoff picture by July, should they seek a full-on rebuild or continue the retooling process in hopes of competing again in 2018? Jays Journal writers take a look from three different perspectives.

Optimist – Chris Henderson

Is there an optimistic way to look at the future of the Toronto Blue Jays? Of course there is, even after a start to the season like they’ve experienced thus far.

Despite being the oldest club in baseball, the Blue Jays have several great pieces to build on, for the immediate future and in coming seasons. Yes, the likes of Bautista, Donaldson, Tulowitzki and more are on the wrong side of 30, but there are several more key pieces to the organization that are just getting their careers started.

In the rotation, the Blue Jays have two key pieces that collectively cost less than than Justin Smoak in salary this season. Aaron Sanchez lead the American League in ERA last season, and is on a minimum contract for 2017, much to the chagrin of his agent, Scott Boras. Sanchez won’t be a free agent until the 2021 season, so the Jays will get to enjoy his talent for several seasons at a minimal cost compared to his talent.

Marcus Stroman is slightly further along, earning himself 3.4 million this year, after getting a big raise through arbitration. Stroman also earned the minimum last season, and is just starting to get more expensive. At the same time, the young star seems to be really coming into his own as well. The Blue Jays still have 4 seasons of control (counting this year) with Stroman as well, giving them a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for awhile at least.

Add players like Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, Rowdy Tellez, Vlad Guerrero Jr, and more withing the minor leagues, and the Blue Jays have the pieces to continue to contend, while continuing to build the club from within. Assuming the Blue Jays can stay competitive this year and next, look for Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins to employ a similar model to what we’re seeing in New York with the Yankees right now.

It would be a shame to sell everything and build from the ground up, especially after reviving a starved franchise with back to back playoff appearances. Given the way the club is built, it shouldn’t have to come to that.

Pessimist – Sam Bruce

A week and a half through the season, and things are already looking incredibly bleak for the Blue Jays. They have just one win to their name, and have looked completely lost offensively. While the pitching has been as strong as anticipated, baseball is a team sport. The Blue Jays are not playing like a complete team. And although the season is long and the offensive woes suffered early are likely not sustainable, the fact of the matter remains that the Blue Jays have largely squandered their chances at making a playoff three-peat.

For the Blue Jays to reach the playoffs they will first have to get to .500. This means winning an incredible number of games against foes that have proven to be tough opponents, time and time again. The Jays will also have to do this without Josh Donaldson. With an offense as horrendously bad as the Blue Jays have been, using your bench players to try to play out of a slump is generally not recommended.

Furthermore, if the Blue Jays can win their way back to an even average, they will still have to win further to build a winning record (.500 teams rarely are good enough to make it to the playoffs). The Blue Jays early hole has given them no room for error this year.

In the 2016 season, the Jays slumped hard in September, but still qualified for the Wild Card thanks in part to their excellent record beforehand. With over 150 games to play, the Blue Jays are going to need to get it together, and keep it together, for the chance to play in October.

Come July, if the Blue Jays are out of the playoff picture, the front office would be foolish not to listen to offers to players that could boost the farm system. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins should seriously consider the idea of trading away ALL valuable pieces that could bring back prospect, even Donaldson, the current face of the Blue Jays franchise.

This is a team that is far too old and far too one-dimensional to compete with the best in baseball. The Blue Jays have young building blocks in the farm system, such as Guerrero Jr., Alford, Tellez, and Reid-Foley and the best course of action for this team would be to sacrifice the 2017 and potentially even 2018 season for huge success starting in 2019. This method would be similar to that of the Red Sox and Cubs, two of the young, athletic powerhouse teams in the MLB.