What is the Blue Jays’ Window For Contention? Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

The 2017 season is finally upon us! Jays Journal is introducing a new weekly series where writers take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are three sides to every argument; comment below to share which view you agree with the most for each article.

This week, Jays Journal writers take a look at the Blue Jays’ window for contention, and how the start of the 2017 season may influence the future of the organization.

The Blue Jays have started off their season with an abysmal 1-8 record and they already sit 5.5 games back of the division leader, the Baltimore Orioles. While the pitching has produced to an All-Star caliber level, the problem with the team seems to lie in the once dynamic offense.

Through 10 games, the Jays offense has averaged 2.8 runs/game, a far cry from the 4.69 runs/game they averaged in 2016. Key hitters like Devon Travis and Russell Martin are hitting below .100, Jose Bautista has yet to hit a home run, and worse yet, the Blue Jays just lost the 2015 AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, with a calf injury.

Optimists are saying that there are still 152 games left in the season, while pessimists are pointing to the fact that only three teams have ever made the playoffs while starting with a 1-7 record or worse.

If the Blue Jays are out of the playoff picture by July, should they seek a full-on rebuild or continue the retooling process in hopes of competing again in 2018? Jays Journal writers take a look from three different perspectives.

Optimist – Chris Henderson

Is there an optimistic way to look at the future of the Toronto Blue Jays? Of course there is, even after a start to the season like they’ve experienced thus far.

Despite being the oldest club in baseball, the Blue Jays have several great pieces to build on, for the immediate future and in coming seasons. Yes, the likes of Bautista, Donaldson, Tulowitzki and more are on the wrong side of 30, but there are several more key pieces to the organization that are just getting their careers started.

In the rotation, the Blue Jays have two key pieces that collectively cost less than than Justin Smoak in salary this season. Aaron Sanchez lead the American League in ERA last season, and is on a minimum contract for 2017, much to the chagrin of his agent, Scott Boras. Sanchez won’t be a free agent until the 2021 season, so the Jays will get to enjoy his talent for several seasons at a minimal cost compared to his talent.

Marcus Stroman is slightly further along, earning himself 3.4 million this year, after getting a big raise through arbitration. Stroman also earned the minimum last season, and is just starting to get more expensive. At the same time, the young star seems to be really coming into his own as well. The Blue Jays still have 4 seasons of control (counting this year) with Stroman as well, giving them a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for awhile at least.

Add players like Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, Rowdy Tellez, Vlad Guerrero Jr, and more withing the minor leagues, and the Blue Jays have the pieces to continue to contend, while continuing to build the club from within. Assuming the Blue Jays can stay competitive this year and next, look for Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins to employ a similar model to what we’re seeing in New York with the Yankees right now.

It would be a shame to sell everything and build from the ground up, especially after reviving a starved franchise with back to back playoff appearances. Given the way the club is built, it shouldn’t have to come to that.

Realist – Jason Lee

The path that the Blue Jays organization will take will be decided in July, based on the Blue Jays’ position in the playoff race. If the Blue Jays are within 5 games of a playoff spot in July, the likely course of action would be a similar method to 2016, where the management looks to acquire 2nd-tier options in hopes of improving the team, but keep the strength of the farm system.

However, if the Blue Jays are more than 5 games out of a playoff spot, the front office will, and should, look to take on a full-scale rebuild of the team. Everyone in baseball knows that the Blue Jays are a flawed, old team. They have their strengths that carried the team to playoff success in 2015 and 2016, but in truth, the Blue Jays lack the speed, athleticism, and youth that wins teams the World Series in the current era.

That being said, the Blue Jays are not far off from becoming a young, athletic, and fun powerhouse team in the MLB. At the Major League level, the Blue Jays have a wealth of young pieces to build around such as Sanchez and Stroman in the rotation, Osuna and Biagini in the bullpen, and Travis and Pillar in the field. In the minor leagues, more talent awaits as Guerrero Jr., Alford, Tellez, and Reid-Foley all look like potential above-average major league players.

While trading away players like Estrada, Bautista, and Donaldson may be a tough pill to swallow for Jays fans, it will only boost the farm system and set up years of success in the very near future. However, the Blue Jays would be wise to keep some of the team leaders that could help the young players transition into the big leagues, such as Tulowitzki for the infield and Martin for the young pitchers.

Either way, the Blue Jays are a team in transition. They are good enough to compete in the present, but are old enough to envision the new future core. 2017 will be a monumental year for the Blue Jays organization. If the Jays somehow manage to stay in the playoff picture come July, then expect the front office to continue the retooling efforts as they try and juggle the present needs with the future hopes.

Next: Blue Jays: How Donaldson's calves may affect his future in TO

However, if the Blue Jays continue to struggle through April and May and are realistically out of the playoffs by the Trade Deadline, Jays fans should be ready to welcome a new era of baseball in Toronto; one without the likes of Bautista and Donaldson.