What is the Blue Jays’ Window For Contention? Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

The 2017 season is finally upon us! Jays Journal is introducing a new weekly series where writers take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are three sides to every argument; comment below to share which view you agree with the most for each article.

This week, Jays Journal writers take a look at the Blue Jays’ window for contention, and how the start of the 2017 season may influence the future of the organization.

The Blue Jays have started off their season with an abysmal 1-8 record and they already sit 5.5 games back of the division leader, the Baltimore Orioles. While the pitching has produced to an All-Star caliber level, the problem with the team seems to lie in the once dynamic offense.

Through 10 games, the Jays offense has averaged 2.8 runs/game, a far cry from the 4.69 runs/game they averaged in 2016. Key hitters like Devon Travis and Russell Martin are hitting below .100, Jose Bautista has yet to hit a home run, and worse yet, the Blue Jays just lost the 2015 AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, with a calf injury.

Optimists are saying that there are still 152 games left in the season, while pessimists are pointing to the fact that only three teams have ever made the playoffs while starting with a 1-7 record or worse.

If the Blue Jays are out of the playoff picture by July, should they seek a full-on rebuild or continue the retooling process in hopes of competing again in 2018? Jays Journal writers take a look from three different perspectives.

Pessimist – Sam Bruce

A week and a half through the season, and things are already looking incredibly bleak for the Blue Jays. They have just one win to their name, and have looked completely lost offensively. While the pitching has been as strong as anticipated, baseball is a team sport. The Blue Jays are not playing like a complete team. And although the season is long and the offensive woes suffered early are likely not sustainable, the fact of the matter remains that the Blue Jays have largely squandered their chances at making a playoff three-peat.

For the Blue Jays to reach the playoffs they will first have to get to .500. This means winning an incredible number of games against foes that have proven to be tough opponents, time and time again. The Jays will also have to do this without Josh Donaldson. With an offense as horrendously bad as the Blue Jays have been, using your bench players to try to play out of a slump is generally not recommended.

Furthermore, if the Blue Jays can win their way back to an even average, they will still have to win further to build a winning record (.500 teams rarely are good enough to make it to the playoffs). The Blue Jays early hole has given them no room for error this year.

In the 2016 season, the Jays slumped hard in September, but still qualified for the Wild Card thanks in part to their excellent record beforehand. With over 150 games to play, the Blue Jays are going to need to get it together, and keep it together, for the chance to play in October.

Come July, if the Blue Jays are out of the playoff picture, the front office would be foolish not to listen to offers to players that could boost the farm system. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins should seriously consider the idea of trading away ALL valuable pieces that could bring back prospect, even Donaldson, the current face of the Blue Jays franchise.

This is a team that is far too old and far too one-dimensional to compete with the best in baseball. The Blue Jays have young building blocks in the farm system, such as Guerrero Jr., Alford, Tellez, and Reid-Foley and the best course of action for this team would be to sacrifice the 2017 and potentially even 2018 season for huge success starting in 2019. This method would be similar to that of the Red Sox and Cubs, two of the young, athletic powerhouse teams in the MLB.

Realist – Jason Lee

The path that the Blue Jays organization will take will be decided in July, based on the Blue Jays’ position in the playoff race. If the Blue Jays are within 5 games of a playoff spot in July, the likely course of action would be a similar method to 2016, where the management looks to acquire 2nd-tier options in hopes of improving the team, but keep the strength of the farm system.

However, if the Blue Jays are more than 5 games out of a playoff spot, the front office will, and should, look to take on a full-scale rebuild of the team. Everyone in baseball knows that the Blue Jays are a flawed, old team. They have their strengths that carried the team to playoff success in 2015 and 2016, but in truth, the Blue Jays lack the speed, athleticism, and youth that wins teams the World Series in the current era.

That being said, the Blue Jays are not far off from becoming a young, athletic, and fun powerhouse team in the MLB. At the Major League level, the Blue Jays have a wealth of young pieces to build around such as Sanchez and Stroman in the rotation, Osuna and Biagini in the bullpen, and Travis and Pillar in the field. In the minor leagues, more talent awaits as Guerrero Jr., Alford, Tellez, and Reid-Foley all look like potential above-average major league players.

While trading away players like Estrada, Bautista, and Donaldson may be a tough pill to swallow for Jays fans, it will only boost the farm system and set up years of success in the very near future. However, the Blue Jays would be wise to keep some of the team leaders that could help the young players transition into the big leagues, such as Tulowitzki for the infield and Martin for the young pitchers.

Either way, the Blue Jays are a team in transition. They are good enough to compete in the present, but are old enough to envision the new future core. 2017 will be a monumental year for the Blue Jays organization. If the Jays somehow manage to stay in the playoff picture come July, then expect the front office to continue the retooling efforts as they try and juggle the present needs with the future hopes.

Next: Blue Jays: How Donaldson's calves may affect his future in TO

However, if the Blue Jays continue to struggle through April and May and are realistically out of the playoffs by the Trade Deadline, Jays fans should be ready to welcome a new era of baseball in Toronto; one without the likes of Bautista and Donaldson.