Blue Jays’ Rotation Depth: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

The 2017 season is finally upon us! Jays Journal is introducing a new weekly series where contributors take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are three sides to every argument; comment below to share which view you agree with the most for each article.

This week’s article topic is the Blue Jays’ starting rotation depth, and what may happen if there is an extended injury to one of the starting five. Toronto’s rotation currently consists of five above-average pitchers, all of whom can act as a rotation ace on any given day.

However, the next tier of Blue Jays starters are limited in both talent and number. If a starter were to go down with a long-term injury, the Blue Jays could theoretically choose from the following pitchers currently in the minor leagues:

Mat Latos: 4.89 ERA, 1.49 WHIP (2016) and 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (career)

Mike Bolsinger: 6.83 ERA, 1.52 WHIP (2016) and 4.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP (career)

T.J. House: 3.38 ERA, 2.25 WHIP (2016) and 4.44 ERA, 1.48 WHIP (career)

Casey Lawrence: 3.77 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (MiLB career), No MLB experience

Sean Reid-Foley: 3.58 ERA,1.27 WHIP (MiLB career), No MLB experience

The aforementioned names definitely do not bring any particular excitement or reason for optimism. However, there are players on the list that either have MLB experience and prior success like Mat Latos, or bring high upside to the table like top prospect, Sean Reid-Foley, who is starting off the year in Double-A.

Do the Jays have enough depth to survive a long-term injury to the starting staff and if so, what are the reasonable results to expect out of the next group of pitchers? Jays Journal writers take a look from three different perspectives.

Optimist – Clayton Richer

The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the deepest rotations in all of the majors; there are very few rotations that possess the consistency, one through five, that the Blue Jays are equipped with. If healthy the Blue Jays strength and hopes for a successful 2017 campaign lies within the rotation.

Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro went on the record a few weeks back on the Jeff Blair show expressing his concern should the Jays rotation run into a long-term injury with one of their starters.

Shapiro stated the following: “While we do have guys capable of filling in for two, three, four starts, I’m not sure at (triple-A) Buffalo as we start the season we’re going to have a guy we feel can hop into the rotation and pitch half a year in our rotation and sustain a championship level of starting pitching performance.”

However, I am not sure how many teams throughout the league are stacked on the depth chart once past the fifth starter. The Blue Jays have a very competent weapon in Mat Latos who has a proven track record at the major league level. Although Latos is not the talent he once was, he is still very much capable of holding down the fifth spot on a number of major league rotations.

As well Casey Lawrence is poised the see major league action this season and may have actually surpassed Latos on the depth chart after a very successful spring training. Lawrence is the opening day starter for the Bisons and could force his way into the conversation with a successful start to the season.

“While we do have guys capable of filling in for two, three, four starts, I’m not sure at (triple-A) Buffalo as we start the season we’re going to have a guy we feel can hop into the rotation and pitch half a year in our rotation and sustain a championship level of starting pitching performance.”

I also really like the potential Mike Bolsinger brings to that table if the Jays decide to stretch him out now that he has cleared waivers. Bolsinger had a very successful 2015 season with the Dodgers where he put up a 3.62 ERA in 21 starts.

Furthermore, injured hurler T.J. House has major league experience as a starter in 2014 with the Cleveland Indians where he put up a 3.35 ERA in 18 starts for the Tribe.

As well, heralded rookie Sean Reid-Foley could be afforded an opportunity if he presents well in the first few months of the season down on the farm.

So yes, an injury to starting rotation is never ideal, but if the unfortunate does occur, there will be no need to wave the proverbial white flag on the season as the Jays have some arms who could do the job if afforded the opportunity.

Pessimist – Brendan Panikkar

The Toronto Blue Jays have had remarkable health from their rotation over the past few seasons. 2014, 2015, and 2016 have all seen the Blue Jays be quite fortunate in terms of the little to no need for starters in AAA or AA.

However, unlike seasons past where they’ve been 1-2 starters deep in AAA, this would not be the season the Blue Jays could afford an absence from any of their “Fantastic Five” starters. Last year, they had some cushion with Drew Hutchison in AAA. This year they do not have someone who could come in and provide stability for 3-4 turns through the rotation.

The closest arm they have to being able to step in and provide stability would be the veteran Mat Latos. It’s remarkable to think that Latos is still only 29. He’s been around forever and has actually had some ace calibre seasons with the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds. The Latos the Blue Jays saw in spring was extremely inconsistent. He showed us that he can barely make it 1 trip through the batting order. If he did and started a 2nd time through, he got hit hard. He simply does not have the same velocity and movement on his stuff like he used too.

Beyond Mat Latos, the team has Casey Lawrence and Mike Bolsinger, and either would likely be the first guy to be called up. Bolsinger would have to go back through waivers, Lawrence does not. Lawrence is Buffalo’s Opening Day starter this year but he has not pitched above AA before. He might be able to go through 1-2 turns through the rotation in Toronto, but that is a stretch. Bolsinger would be my call – I have the most faith in him as a starter in the majors as he’s had great success in the past with the Dodgers.

The rest of the lot includes Brett Oberholtzer, Lucas Harrell, and T.J House, but Harrell is currently injured. All three have had brief spurts of success in the majors (Harrell being the most successful) but they’re all 3-4 seasons removed from that success. House and Oberholtzer profile better as long relievers and not starters. If any of these three are up, it’s a disaster of a season to the Blue Jays rotation.

Quite simply put, they Blue Jays do not have reliable depth that they could turn to in the rotation to provide stability, if a starter goes down for more than 1 month. Perhaps the Blue Jays can survive 1-2 starts but anything beyond that could signal the end of the 2017 playoff aspirations.