Blue Jays: Is Osuna’s Velocity Dip a Concern: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

For the upcoming season, Jays Journal will be introducing a new weekly series where contributors take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are three sides to every argument; comment below to share which view you agree with the most for each article.

The topic for this week’s article is Osuna’s spring training struggles, and more specifically, the young closer’s dip in velocity. Roberto Osuna‘s troubles appeared to start in the World Baseball Classic while pitching for his home country of Mexico.

In two brief appearances, the Blue Jays’ closer pitched 0.2 innings while allowing 5 runs (4 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks, adding up to a grotesque 54.00 ERA for the tournament.

Pete Walker and the rest of the Blue Jays staff seemed to dismiss the rough showings as merely an anomalous result, one that should be forgotten and moved forward with. After watching video replay of Osuna’s horrendous ninth inning against Italy, Pete Walker stated that he found nothing wrong with Osuna’s mechanics or the pitches themselves.

Osuna returned to the Blue Jays’ spring training facilities in Dunedin soon after Mexico was eliminated in the first round of the WBC, and suffered from neck stiffness due to a “bad mattress”. Since his return to the mound, Osuna has had mixed results.

The more concerning fact other than spring training numbers is the Mexican closer’s velocity. Usually operating in the mid to high nineties in peak form, Osuna struggled to throw even 95 mph in his spring appearances thus far, operating at around 93-94 mph.

Should this 2-3 mph drop be a cause for concern, or is Osuna just taking it slowly before the regular season?

Optimist – Brendan Panikkar

Roberto Osuna has had a very interesting spring. He started in Blue Jays camp and left early to join Team Mexico for the World Baseball Classic. In his appearance against Team Italy, Osuna allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and it immediately raised some red flags.

The biggest red flag is the dip in velocity. Osuna is sitting around 93-94 MPH, compared to his average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph in 2016. However, I think Osuna will be just fine. He is only just starting to ramp it up and we will get to see Osuna once more this weekend in Montreal.

In the past two seasons, Osuna has pitched 69.2 and 74.0 innings. Combine that with the post-season and he’s right around 80.0 innings in each of the past two seasons. While there may be some fatigue, I fully expect Osuna to be the dominant 1.3 and 1.8 fWAR closer we’ve seen the past 2 seasons.

I even believe he has another step to take which could lead to his first all-star appearance. Unless we see something truly notable the first few weeks like his velocity staying around 93-94 MPH, there is nothing to worry about with the young closer.

Pessimist – Jason Lee

The thing that should be most concerning to Blue Jays fans is not Osuna’s implosion in the WBC. In fact, it’s not even Osuna’s velocity dip in recent spring training outings. The question that Blue Jays fans should be asking is harsh and pessimistic, but fairly reasonable under the given circumstances: Is Roberto Osuna injury prone?

June 2013 – Torn UCL (Tommy John Surgery)

May 2016 – Groin Injury

October 2016 – Shoulder Stretch/Fatigue

March 2017 – Neck Stiffness

Analyzing his career injuries and DL stints, Blue Jays fans can rest assured: Roberto Osuna is not injury prone, yet. The only real significant injury that Osuna has had in his young career is the torn UCL in 2013, leading to Tommy John surgery and its rigorous rehabilitation. In 2016, Roberto Osuna had his fair share of body aches and pains, but this can simply be attributed to the long grind of an MLB season, nothing that raises red flags.

However, Osuna’s velocity is still a situation worth monitoring considering the volatility of a young arm that’s undergone a major surgery. If Osuna’s velocity continues to sit in the 93-94 mph range at the beginning of the regular season, this could suggest an arm-related ailment that Osuna could be hiding from the Jays, or an issue that the Jays are hiding from the media, much like the Greg Holland situation in Kansas City a couple of years ago.

Another major surgery for Osuna could potentially derail his promising career and it wouldn’t be the first time that a young star failed to live up to the hype due to injuries. That being said, this is the utmost worst-case scenario for Osuna. As Roberto would probably say after reading this: “Osuna Matata – no worries, I’m just getting ready for Opening Day.”