Blue Jays: Is Osuna’s Velocity Dip a Concern: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

For the upcoming season, Jays Journal will be introducing a new weekly series where contributors take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are three sides to every argument; comment below to share which view you agree with the most for each article.

The topic for this week’s article is Osuna’s spring training struggles, and more specifically, the young closer’s dip in velocity. Roberto Osuna‘s troubles appeared to start in the World Baseball Classic while pitching for his home country of Mexico.

In two brief appearances, the Blue Jays’ closer pitched 0.2 innings while allowing 5 runs (4 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks, adding up to a grotesque 54.00 ERA for the tournament.

Pete Walker and the rest of the Blue Jays staff seemed to dismiss the rough showings as merely an anomalous result, one that should be forgotten and moved forward with. After watching video replay of Osuna’s horrendous ninth inning against Italy, Pete Walker stated that he found nothing wrong with Osuna’s mechanics or the pitches themselves.

Osuna returned to the Blue Jays’ spring training facilities in Dunedin soon after Mexico was eliminated in the first round of the WBC, and suffered from neck stiffness due to a “bad mattress”. Since his return to the mound, Osuna has had mixed results.

The more concerning fact other than spring training numbers is the Mexican closer’s velocity. Usually operating in the mid to high nineties in peak form, Osuna struggled to throw even 95 mph in his spring appearances thus far, operating at around 93-94 mph.

Should this 2-3 mph drop be a cause for concern, or is Osuna just taking it slowly before the regular season?

Optimist – Brendan Panikkar

Roberto Osuna has had a very interesting spring. He started in Blue Jays camp and left early to join Team Mexico for the World Baseball Classic. In his appearance against Team Italy, Osuna allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and it immediately raised some red flags.

The biggest red flag is the dip in velocity. Osuna is sitting around 93-94 MPH, compared to his average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph in 2016. However, I think Osuna will be just fine. He is only just starting to ramp it up and we will get to see Osuna once more this weekend in Montreal.

In the past two seasons, Osuna has pitched 69.2 and 74.0 innings. Combine that with the post-season and he’s right around 80.0 innings in each of the past two seasons. While there may be some fatigue, I fully expect Osuna to be the dominant 1.3 and 1.8 fWAR closer we’ve seen the past 2 seasons.

I even believe he has another step to take which could lead to his first all-star appearance. Unless we see something truly notable the first few weeks like his velocity staying around 93-94 MPH, there is nothing to worry about with the young closer.

Realist – Sam Bruce

Roberto Osuna’s dropped velocity and troubling spring performance are definitely one for the Jays and fans to watch, but nothing to panic over just yet. Osuna posted an ERA of 54.00 during the WBC with 5 runs given up (4 earned) to go along with rough spring outings (all of his spring runs were unearned), which is definitely a far cry from the ace closer we have become accustomed to. Osuna looked like his old self on Wednesday, though the radar gun was ‘not functioning’. It looks like we’ll have to wait until Montreal to really dive into his numbers.

Yet even if Osuna’s velocity is down again this weekend, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Osuna emerged onto the major league scene as an absolute force to be reckoned with. Since then the 9th has firmly been his, with little doubt of the outcome.

Even if Osuna struggles at the beginning of the season, it’s only natural for a young hurler to face some setbacks. Osuna hasn’t really had a setback in his professional career; he has had a Tommy John surgery in the past, but his major league performance hasn’t indicated that so far.

Take, for example, Marcus Stroman who demonstrated the qualities of an ace in 2014 and 2015, yet struggled mightily through the first half of 2016. This setback has not changed his potential of staff ace, just forced him to work harder.

The same can be true of Osuna. If he has indeed lost some velocity off his fastball, it doesn’t mean he’s doomed to mediocrity. Rather, it means the 22-year-old has time to make the adjustments needed to re-invent himself as another form of a dominant reliever.

However, it’s more likely that this dip in velocity is merely a blip on the radar and that Osuna is just working himself back up to mid-season form after some mild neck stiffness. Sure, this velocity loss could be permanent and Osuna will have to rework himself as a pitcher, but the most likely scenario is that media and fans are over-evaluating the situation at hand.

Unless the Jays are hiding crucial medical information, dismissing two years of outstanding pitching with a few outings in March is unreasonable. Yes, Osuna’s velocity is something to monitor for the first few games of the season, but expect him to be the hard-throwing, shut-down closer he was in 2015 and 2016.

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