Blue Jays: Is Osuna’s Velocity Dip a Concern: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

Optimist – Brendan Panikkar

Roberto Osuna has had a very interesting spring. He started in Blue Jays camp and left early to join Team Mexico for the World Baseball Classic. In his appearance against Team Italy, Osuna allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and it immediately raised some red flags.

The biggest red flag is the dip in velocity. Osuna is sitting around 93-94 MPH, compared to his average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph in 2016. However, I think Osuna will be just fine. He is only just starting to ramp it up and we will get to see Osuna once more this weekend in Montreal.

In the past two seasons, Osuna has pitched 69.2 and 74.0 innings. Combine that with the post-season and he’s right around 80.0 innings in each of the past two seasons. While there may be some fatigue, I fully expect Osuna to be the dominant 1.3 and 1.8 fWAR closer we’ve seen the past 2 seasons.

I even believe he has another step to take which could lead to his first all-star appearance. Unless we see something truly notable the first few weeks like his velocity staying around 93-94 MPH, there is nothing to worry about with the young closer.

Pessimist – Jason Lee

The thing that should be most concerning to Blue Jays fans is not Osuna’s implosion in the WBC. In fact, it’s not even Osuna’s velocity dip in recent spring training outings. The question that Blue Jays fans should be asking is harsh and pessimistic, but fairly reasonable under the given circumstances: Is Roberto Osuna injury prone?

June 2013 – Torn UCL (Tommy John Surgery)

May 2016 – Groin Injury

October 2016 – Shoulder Stretch/Fatigue

March 2017 – Neck Stiffness

Analyzing his career injuries and DL stints, Blue Jays fans can rest assured: Roberto Osuna is not injury prone, yet. The only real significant injury that Osuna has had in his young career is the torn UCL in 2013, leading to Tommy John surgery and its rigorous rehabilitation. In 2016, Roberto Osuna had his fair share of body aches and pains, but this can simply be attributed to the long grind of an MLB season, nothing that raises red flags.

However, Osuna’s velocity is still a situation worth monitoring considering the volatility of a young arm that’s undergone a major surgery. If Osuna’s velocity continues to sit in the 93-94 mph range at the beginning of the regular season, this could suggest an arm-related ailment that Osuna could be hiding from the Jays, or an issue that the Jays are hiding from the media, much like the Greg Holland situation in Kansas City a couple of years ago.

Another major surgery for Osuna could potentially derail his promising career and it wouldn’t be the first time that a young star failed to live up to the hype due to injuries. That being said, this is the utmost worst-case scenario for Osuna. As Roberto would probably say after reading this: “Osuna Matata – no worries, I’m just getting ready for Opening Day.”

Realist – Sam Bruce

Roberto Osuna’s dropped velocity and troubling spring performance are definitely one for the Jays and fans to watch, but nothing to panic over just yet. Osuna posted an ERA of 54.00 during the WBC with 5 runs given up (4 earned) to go along with rough spring outings (all of his spring runs were unearned), which is definitely a far cry from the ace closer we have become accustomed to. Osuna looked like his old self on Wednesday, though the radar gun was ‘not functioning’. It looks like we’ll have to wait until Montreal to really dive into his numbers.

Yet even if Osuna’s velocity is down again this weekend, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Osuna emerged onto the major league scene as an absolute force to be reckoned with. Since then the 9th has firmly been his, with little doubt of the outcome.

Even if Osuna struggles at the beginning of the season, it’s only natural for a young hurler to face some setbacks. Osuna hasn’t really had a setback in his professional career; he has had a Tommy John surgery in the past, but his major league performance hasn’t indicated that so far.

Take, for example, Marcus Stroman who demonstrated the qualities of an ace in 2014 and 2015, yet struggled mightily through the first half of 2016. This setback has not changed his potential of staff ace, just forced him to work harder.

The same can be true of Osuna. If he has indeed lost some velocity off his fastball, it doesn’t mean he’s doomed to mediocrity. Rather, it means the 22-year-old has time to make the adjustments needed to re-invent himself as another form of a dominant reliever.

However, it’s more likely that this dip in velocity is merely a blip on the radar and that Osuna is just working himself back up to mid-season form after some mild neck stiffness. Sure, this velocity loss could be permanent and Osuna will have to rework himself as a pitcher, but the most likely scenario is that media and fans are over-evaluating the situation at hand.

Unless the Jays are hiding crucial medical information, dismissing two years of outstanding pitching with a few outings in March is unreasonable. Yes, Osuna’s velocity is something to monitor for the first few games of the season, but expect him to be the hard-throwing, shut-down closer he was in 2015 and 2016.

Next: Blue Jays Enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame