Blue Jays Trade Options: Absorbing Money to Fill OF Needs

There’s been a ton of talk about the Detroit Tigers this offseason, initially because of their willingness to trade off assets in order to both shed payroll and rebuild their weak farm system. Recently, there have been reports that they’re going to keep assets and adjust mid season if necessary, and that their high asking prices are high enough to push away potential buyers.

So, it’s tough to say at this point what they’re going to ultimately end up doing, as a trade for one or two players could send a domino effect through the organization at any moment. Despite the unpredictability of their offseason plan, I still believe that they’re a team that is open to this type of trade.

The player I’d target is Justin Upton. He signed a large six year contract worth $132.75 million last offseason that will pay him $22.5 million each of the next five seasons, which are his age 29 through 33 seasons. His first season as a Tiger was largely deemed as a failure, as he slashed .246/.310/.465/.775 with a 105 wRC+.

Those numbers are well below his career line of .268/.347/.472/.819 with a +119 wRC+, and it looks like that contract is going to be a behemoth of an anchor if he can’t produce at a level near or above his career norms.

However, his 2016 slash was dragged down by a downright putrid April and May in which he hit .217/.264/.326/.590 with a 54 wRC+, 36.5 K% and a measly 3 HR. Upton is known to be a very streaky player, but this was awful, even by his standard of streakiness. From June 1st through the end of the season, he turned his season around with a .259/.331/.531/.862 with a 128 wRC+, 28 HR, and BB and K rates of 8.9% and 24.9%, much closer to his career norms.

A trade for Upton would be investing in the player from June 1 through the end of the year as opposed to the player from the first two months of the season. If he can avoid such a slump like he had in April/May, which is likely considering the severity of it and how he bounced back, then it’s likely that he can revert to being a 3-4 win player as opposed to his 1.4 fWAR in 2016.

He’s a proven power hitter, and that was shown that he still has the ability to hit 25 plus home runs. He’s not a fantastic defender in LF by any means, but his DRS of 1 in 2016 and 8 in 2015 show that he’s a capable outfielder, and his baserunning has received a positive rating in each of his nine seasons.

He’s an athletic, powerful hitter who runs the bases well and is a proven power hitter and run producer. You’ll have to deal with his streaks of dismal hitting, but his hot streaks often outweigh them.

If the Blue Jays can get the Tigers to eat a portion of the money in the remaining years of the deal in order to make the yearly salary a little more palatable, let’s say $2.5 million a year, you’d have to imagine they wouldn’t have to give a huge package of prospects when taking on that kind of money.

By taking on that kind of money, the Jays could demand a reliever in the deal as well. Justin Wilson is a name that has been named in rumours, Shane Greene showed lots of promise in a bullpen role last year, and Bruce Rondon is another name that would intrigue the Jays.

Upton’s contract is obviously very heavy, and owing $20+ million to Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Upton, and potentially Josh Donaldson a couple years down the road could be a roadblock for future moves, but the Blue Jays management already showed the willingness to spend $20 million on another player by offering Encarnacion 4/80 earlier this offseason.

A trade like this would fill a hole in the Jays OF, while also opening up the possibility of filling a need in the bullpen as well, without having to give up a package of prospects that would deplete the upper minors.

The one caveat of this idea that exists is Upton’s no trade clause, that allows him to block trades to 20 different teams. It’s unknown whether or not the Blue Jays are on that list or not, or if he would block a trade or not to Toronto if they are indeed on the list, but an opportunity to play with his brother on a competitive team, in a hitters ballpark could be enough to incite him to allow such a move.

The Royals are another team that seem to be caught in between trying to compete with their existing core for another year, or selling off assets that they won’t be able to re-sign in order to facilitate a quick rebuild.

They’re still a talented team, with many players still employed that were on their team when they won the World Series in 2015; however, they failed to play at a level in 2016 that would have gotten them into the playoffs, and they’ve already lost Morales in free agency and Wade Davis via trade.

This has spurned talks of a sell, and there was rumours of this beginning at last year’s trade deadline. They held off on doing so at the time, but the Davis trade could be one of many deals they make if they end up committing to this process.

The potential free agents they’ll have after the 2017 season are Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Alcides Escobar, and Danny Duffy. That’s a very good group of players, and the Royals have virtually no chance of resigning them all. With their chances of making the playoffs already lower after their 2016 season that resulted in nothing, and the compensation for departing free agents is worse than it was before the new CBA, there is plenty of value for the Royals to trade off assets.

The idea below is contingent on whether or not the Royals continue to make trades like the Davis for Jorge Soler trade, if they don’t and decide to take one more run with the current core, than this idea likely isn’t at all realistic. With that being said, I think the Jays could target Ian Kennedy and his ugly contract.

There were rumours circulating about the Royals looking to offload Kennedy’s contract in the summer and nothing came to fruition at the time, but I believe this is a good time for the Blue Jays to use this to their advantage.

Kennedy signed with the Royals last offseason for five years and 70 million. He is owed $13 million in 2017, followed by 16, 16.5, and 16.5 in the three years following. It’s not a flattering contract by any means, but Kennedy isn’t useless, coming off a season where he threw 195.2 IP with a 3.68 ERA and a 4.67 FIP, which is dragged down because of an ugly 1.52 HR/9.

If the Royals are indeed sold on selling, keeping Kennedy’s contract on the books for the next four years doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. By the time they’re ready to compete again, he won’t be a major contributor, and they’d be better off saving that money, or better yet, spending it to resign one of their young soon-to-be free agents in the short term.

By taking on Kennedy’s full salary, you open up the potential to get Dyson or Cain included in the deal at a relative bargain. Obviously, you’ll have to create a package that entices the Royals, despite the money involved, but the Blue Jays can create leverage for themselves in that regard by taking on the salary commitments.

Getting Cain would be a big boost for this team in 2017, and even Dyson would provide a lot of value if he were to be acquired as well, so I believe it’s well worth the salary investment in order to acquire one or both of them. As far as Kennedy goes, well, you can plug him into the fifth starter role, while Liriano moves into the bullpen as the primary lefty. It gives you depth in both the bullpen and rotation.

The contracts of Liriano and Marco Estrada are off the books at the end of the season, making the absorption of Kennedy’s contract a little bit easier, and he can fill a back of the rotation role following 2017. It’s obviously a pricey cost to fill such a role, but if it means you can acquire help for the major league team in 2017 without giving up top prospects, it’s a worthwhile proposition. Doing so would bridge the competitive gap until the next wave of prospects enter the big leagues.

Kennedy’s 2016 1.52 HR rate is obviously a concern, but that concern comes with a 8.46 K/9 and a 3.04 BB/9, so there’s clearly something to work with here. By no means are you acquiring dead weight. The home run concern was beat to death when Estrada was acquired, but it was simply pitch usage and repertoire adjustments that have unlocked the success he’s had the past two years. There’s no way to say if the same is possible with Kennedy, but at least the consistent track record with regards to his strikeout and walk totals is a good sign.

A deal of this capacity with the Reds would arguably present the most volatility, but the upside that would be involved is undeniable. That’s because it would involve Homer Bailey.

The Reds, a team clearly in a re-building state, and well-known as a mid-to-low market team, could benefit from getting Bailey’s contract off the books. That in itself lends in the Blue Jays’ favour when negotiating a deal that involves so much money. Bailey, who has only thrown 34.1 innings over the last two years, is owed $63 million over the next three years, with a $25 million option for 2020. That’s a lot of money for a pitcher with a multitude of arm injuries the last two years, including Tommy John, and “biceps tenderness” after returning late in 2016.

Taking on a contract of that size for a player that has failed to stay on the field with any sort of regularity is a huge risk, but with that risk comes an opportunity to include a valuable player in the same deal at a very low cost. The Reds have a couple of OF’s that are very intriguing, in Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall. I believe Duvall is more realistic in this case, so I’ll look at him in more detail.

But first, let’s look at Bailey. Before his monster contract extension and TJ surgery that followed, Bailey was a very effective, durable Major League starter. Obviously, the fact that he’s been inactive for nearly two years is a huge risk, but the stuff he showed when he returned for six starts late in 2016 was very good.

It was a small sample of just 23.1 IP, but he struckout 27 batters and only walked seven. This 11 strikeout start in September against the Brewers illustrates that power stuff. His fourseam fastball averaged 93.85 mph and got up to 97.56 mph, which is a great sign he has his velocity back. He also threw a sinker, slider, curve and split at least 8% of the time, showing that his repertoire is deep despite the missed time.

If he can indeed stay healthy, (which looks good at the moment, as his offseason is normal for the first time since 2014) then the stuff he showed, combined with the track record of success, could lead to a solid mid rotation starter. There is huge risk/reward involved here, but it may be a risk worth taking if he can stay on the field. He would enter into a fifth rotation spot with Liriano heading to the ‘pen.

Making this financial commitment worth it would only exist if a controllable OF came with Bailey. Duvall, in his first major league season, slashed .241/.297/.498/.795 with a 104 wRC+ and 33 HR. He posted a 3.3 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR, suggesting he provides value in more ways than with just his bat.

The power he showed in the minor leagues transferred rather seamlessly to the MLB this year, as his .257 ISO ranked 13th among all qualified hitters, and he makes hard contact at a 38.9% rate, ranking 18th among all hitters.

Concerns relate to his below average 6.7% BB rate, and high K rate of 27%. However, despite the OPS falling from .839 in the first half to .741 in the second, he made some strides forward in this regard. His first half BB rate of 4.9% went up to 8.8%, and the K rate moved from 29% to 24.6%. If he can maintain rates like that while his plus power plays, he’s going to be an effective hitter.

He was mostly a corner infielder in the minors, but the Reds moved him to LF last year and the move paid dividends. Defensive metrics are prone to fluctuation, but his 16 DRS and 10.2 UZR across 1173.1 innings is a great sign that he’s more than a place holder out there. He also threw out eight baserunners, showing off the decent arm strength he possesses. His experience at 3B is also an asset, as he can fill in for days Donaldson gets a rest or plays at DH.

He’s also got five years of control, so the money you pay Bailey the next three years can be made up by the value that Duvall could provide while paying him league minumum. That Bailey contract is undoubtedly tough to take on, but if the asset cost is affordable and you can get a player of Duvall’s caliber without giving up a big package of prospects, then you can afford to do so.

Next: Report: Jays, Mets stilling discussing Bruce, Granderson

Due to the volatility of Bailey and his health, and the questions about Duvall’s ability to replicate or improve upon what he did last year, this deal carries the most risk of the ones I’ve outlined. But, it also has a high upside aspect as well. Bailey can provide a viable mid-to-back end starter if healthy, and Duvall can be an everyday, middle-of-the-order 30 HR bat in LF, that’s big value. Any money that the Reds can eat is a bonus.

Any trade between MLB teams, nevermind one that has as many variables as these kind of deals, are incredibly hard to predict. But, due to the current free agent and trade markets, and the Blue Jays position with regards to team needs, payroll availability, and prospect capital, it seems like a scenario that could be in play for Atkins and the rest of the management group.