Toronto Blue Jays outfield targets: Big names to watch in free agency, trades

The Toronto Blue Jays. two primary positional needs this offseason come in left and right field

After a relatively quiet 2015 offseason in terms of positional transactions, the Toronto Blue Jays could need to fill as many as three starting positions this winter.

Two of those are left and right field, and whether it comes through an internal filler or the open market, those spots need to be addressed.

Ahead, we’ll take a look at the “big” names that will earn the most chatter over the coming months, especially in the Toronto market. This doesn’t necessarily make these players the likeliest to sign — even with Toronto’s potential payroll flexibility — but it’s important to get familiar with the top end of the market before the rush begins.

(Important note: Several of the discussed players could come with a draft pick attached due to declined qualifying offers).

Internal Options:  Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera, Dalton Pompey
Re-sign Options:  Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders

Jon Jay  –  31 years old
San Diego Padres (Formerly St. Louis Cardinals)

Jay represents more of a mid-level option for the Blue Jays, but we’re including him first because of all of the boxes he checks off for Toronto.

A left-handed bat, something the Blue Jays would like to add, Jay has played the majority of his career as a centre-fielder and would need to transition into a corner spot. Jay is not a base-stealing threat at this point in his career, but he does possess the athleticism to be an improvement from Saunders or Bautista in that area. His base running value has fluctuated through his career, but he did post an impressive 3.3 Base Running Runs Above Average in 2016 with the Padres despite stealing just two bases.

At the plate, Jay’s appeal is his on-base percentage. This tool doesn’t always come in expected ways, however, as Jay has walked 35 or more times just once. Regardless, he owns a career .352 OBP and has topped .370 twice in his career.

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Injuries have been a worry with Jay the past two seasons, however, as he followed a limited 2015 (79 games) with a 90-game 2016. Jay broke his forearm in late June and missed over two months, only returning for the final 22 games of the season.

Jay is a player who, much like the familiar Ben Revere, relies on good fortune for his high level of balls in play and is unlikely to hit more than a handful of home runs. If the Blue Jays are after an affordable option that can reach base, however, Jay is on the list.

Up Next: An early fan favourite…

Josh Reddick (He’s the one on the right)  –  29 years old
Los Angeles Dodgers (Formerly Oakland Athletics)

Perhaps it’s the hair, the personality, and thus, the related Donaldson-esque aura of Josh Reddick, but he’s already become a fan favourite to be in the Blue Jays outfield next season.

Reddick’s career has taken a variety of shapes over the years as he’s developed into a very strong outfielder despite not maintaining his breakout season in 2012.

That year, his first with the Athletics at age 25 after a deal from Boston, Reddick launched 32 home runs with 85 RBI. He balanced that out with 151 strikeouts though, which he thankfully has not approached since.

He still possesses 20-homer power and has plenty of prime years left. Perhaps a reasonable power comparable for his expected peak would be Michael Saunders. He’s taken steps each season since 2012 to cut his strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage, something that has grown to the point of being a legitimate tool for him.

Between the Athletics and Dodgers this season, Reddick posted a line of .281 / .345 / .405. His production fell off the table after being dealt to Los Angeles, but he recovered in the final month of the season and went 8-for-26 in the playoffs.

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Defensively, Reddick has played primarily as a right-fielder throughout his career and possesses a very powerful throwing arm, something the Blue Jays have seen fade in Jose Bautista since his shoulder injury.

Reddick’s numbers should still keep him as more of a mid-level option, but he’s certainly in the upper echelon of that ‘B’ group. This is especially true in a free agent market that’s not overflowing with talent, so Reddick will be able to command a handsome salary.

The more difficult conversation with the Blue Jays would be the term of a deal, as adding another four-to-five year deal alongside Troy Tulowitzki’s and Russell Martin’s hefty salaries would further consolidate Toronto’s salary to a small group of players. With young talent like Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, and Pillar getting more expensive soon, the Jays need to be careful.

Up Next: The former shortstop who became an outfield All-Star

Ian Desmond  –  31 years old
Texas Rangers (Formerly Washington Nationals)

Desmond, a 2004 selection of the Montreal Expos, has been a fascinating case to watch over the past two years.

Entering the 2014 season, Desmond turned down a seven-year, $107 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals (as reported at the time by Bill Ladson). Instead, the two sides agreed to a smaller two-year deal to close out his arbitration years. Desmond had bet on himself, and early on, he lost.

Following a 2014 that was right on par with his career averages, Desmond experienced a down year in 2015 (.674 OPS, 1.7 WAR) and entered the free agent market with his value significantly lower than it had been. A career shortstop, Desmond signed a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers where he’s re-emerged as an outfielder.

His defence in centre certainly didn’t match the value he once provided at shortstop, but all things considered, the transition went smoothly. The Blue Jays saw first-hand in the ALDS that he’s still not a “natural” in the outfield, though.

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One standout value of Desmond is his ability to stay on the field, something Toronto didn’t always get from Saunders or Bautista (though the sprinkler head incident can not be put on Saunders). Desmond has played in 154 or more games in six of the past seven seasons.

He also comes with some speed and a good understanding of base running, something the Blue Jays will be targeting this offseason. Mixed with his power, Desmond is a legitimate candidate to hit 20 home runs with 20 steals each and every season.

Desmond is due for a nice raise from the one-year, $8 million deal he just finished with the Rangers, and will be one of the more coveted players on the free agent market.

Up Next: He’s World Series bound

Dexter Fowler  –  31 years old
Chicago Cubs

Dexter Fowler is part of the storybook playoff run unfolding in Chicago right now, but when that eventually comes to an end, he’ll have a decision to make on his 2017 option.

It should be a no-brainer, though, as Fowler has the opportunity to seek something much more lucrative than $9 million in 2017 (Chicago can buy out the option year for $5 million, which won’t happen).

Since being traded to the Cubs prior to 2015 then re-signing with the team again last offseason — thanks in large part to the Baltimore Orioles botching their chance — Fowler has given Chicago the two most valuable years of his career. The switch-hitter has posted WARs of 3.3 and 4.7 in his two seasons, playing far above his salary level both times.

His desire to stay in Chicago will be the first obstacle for any team targeting Fowler, but if he’s open to playing elsewhere, there’s a lot to like.

Fowler’s greatest appeal to the Blue Jays, alongside being a switch-hitter, is his on-base tool. The veteran posted a .393 on-base percentage this past season and has a career mark of .366. After a season that saw Ezequiel Carrera bat leadoff far too often, having Fowler atop the lineup would be a notable upgrade.

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Standing six-foot-five, Fowler remains a strong athlete with the ability to impact the game with his base running. Fowler’s defence hasn’t always been his strongest asset, however, and therein lies one of the stumbling blocks for Toronto.

Fowler has played over 8,000 innings in centre field but just one in right field and none in left. It wouldn’t be as big an adjustment as Ian Desmond moving out from shortstop, of course, but Fowler’s home has undeniably been in centre.

Like many players in this free agent class, teams must feel confident that Fowler will maintain this level of play through to his age-35 or 36 seasons. Will he still be worth the value of his free agent deal by 2020 and beyond? With six consecutive seasons of an OPS+ over 100, Fowler has set himself up nicely.

Up Next: Dreaming Big

Jay Bruce  –  29 years old
New York Mets (Formerly almost Toronto Blue Jays)

Jay Bruce is not scheduled to be a free agent, but that hasn’t stopped the Blue Jays in the past.

The slugging outfielder has a $13 million team option with the New York Mets — $1 million buyout — that could be an easy pick-up even if the Mets do not intend on keeping Bruce.

“If they don’t want him, they could always trade him,” a National League executive told Jon Heyman last week. This could be made even more possible if the man just discussed, Yoenis Cespedes, stays with the Mets.

Like Cespedes, Bruce is being included on this list because I expect him to be discussed in relation to the Blue Jays, not because there’s a particularly high likelihood of a move being made. Here’s why:

Even with Toronto’s history of Jay Bruce rumours and their deal prior to this season that was all but official, Bruce fit the 2016 Blue Jays much better than he does the 2017 picture. This past season the Blue Jays accepted and owned the identity of a slow-moving heavyweight that usually delivered the knockout punch. Bruce fit that all-or-nothing model in a way, but as the Blue Jays look to add some team speed and improve their defence in the corner outfields, his fit becomes less natural.

When a player hits 33 home runs with 99 RBI and still only escapes the season with a 0.9 WAR (just 0.2 above Ezequiel Carrera), it’s a sure sign that there is no glove to be found. Bruce had the worst defensive season of his career, and at some point, a shift to first base or full-time designated hitter has to enter the conversation.

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Of course, Bruce’s value isn’t entirely empty. Finding a left-handed bat who is an annual threat to “click” and find 30 home runs with 100 RBI is not easy, and if the Mets really do choose to look elsewhere with Bruce, there will be a team happy to take him.

As long as he’s being used as an outfielder, though, his lone impact will come via the home run ball. Even as a first baseman or designate hitter, Bruce’s speed and high strikeout rate make him a poor fit for the 2017 Blue Jays.

Next: Exploring Grilli's $3 million option in context of free agency

*Editor’s note: Mark Trumbo was knowingly excluded from the discussion because, like Bruce, his defence is too great a liability. Unlike Bruce, he has already seen extensive time as a first-baseman or designated hitter, which is where I would classify him in regards to the Blue Jays.