Will the Blue Jays trust Jason Grilli in big moments of Wild Card?

Without Jason Grilli, it’s possible the Toronto Blue Jays are watching Tuesday night’s American League Wild Card game from home.

The 39-year-old reliever came over from the Atlanta Braves in a small salary dump deal for a minor leaguer on May 31st and solidified the back end of a bullpen in need of one more piece. Grilli landed with an ERA north of five, but in his first 43 appearances with the Blue Jays up to and including September 24th, he pitched to a 2.45 ERA and held opponents to a brilliant .154 batting average against.

In his three outings to close out the season, though, it’s been a different story. The right-hander has allowed six runs on seven hits over those one and two-thirds innings, including three home runs after giving up seven in his previous 57.1 IP.

Is this the sign of a veteran reliever slowing down late in the season, signalling that Grilli’s best innings of 2016 are firmly behind him, or is this a classic blip on the radar in a small sample size? The Blue Jays may not have time to find out, especially in a one-game Wild Card scenario.

Grilli has been tasked with a large workload this season (59.0 IP) that already marks his largest MLB-level total since 2008 with the Detroit Tigers and Colorado Rockies. That can pose problems, but a quick look at Grilli’s velocity charts suggest that he’s not slowing down.

In fact, Grilli has been throwing his fastball marginally harder in his last three games. According to data from Brooks Baseball, Grilli has averaged a 94.0+ MPH release velocity on his fastball just eight times in 2016, but has topped that number in all three of his most recent outings. Is this the sign of a reliever pushing himself on fumes, or again, another small sample blip?

Given the injury to Joaquin Benoit, Grilli seemed to be the next in line for the eighth-inning right-handed role. In the past week, Joe Biagini has also reentered that conversation by sandwiching two big outings around a poor one in the series opener against the Boston Red Sox.

Next: Inside the fragile, unforgiving nature of the Wild Card game

Whoever emerges as the highest-leverage right-hander will work in tandem with Brett Cecil to bridge the gap to Roberto Osuna, and while Grilli has undoubtedly done enough to earn the opportunity when considering his big-picture contributions, the nature of the Wild Card game may not fit well with his recent struggles. Not in the biggest moments of the game, at least.

In a five-game series, perhaps that changes. A rough outing from Grilli — or any reliever, for that matter — could be weathered in the coming games as adjustments are made