Toronto Blue Jays: Surviving The Dog Days

They are known as the Dog Days of Summer – a seemingly arcane period of time embraced by astronomers basking in the afterglow of sultry days, warm temperatures, and the pristine sight of the dog-star Sirius towering high above them in the night sky. For the sport of baseball, it represents a peculiar and almost mythical arc beginning in early July until the middle of August which solely exists to separate bona fide contenders from over-achieving pretenders.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, this sweltering stretch finds them battling for first place in the American League East. From July 3rd to August 11th, the team went an impressive 21-11 and judiciously punched their ticket to an inevitable three-team clash of the titans – a battle royale featuring the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles in a ruthless bid to decide who captures the division crown, and who ends up with the gruesome concession prize of a wild card berth. Which, not surprisingly, is also known as striking fear directly into the tender hearts of endlessly devoted fans dreading the single game playoff scenario.

Unlike the previous year of second half heroics which resulted in a veritable coast to the finish line, this year’s conclusion is likely to be the most thrilling in years for a division now regarded by many as the toughest in all of baseball.

Toronto’s recent series loss against the L.A. Angels was a prime example of counting your chickens before they’ve hatched; against a team with such baseball demigods as Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, but with few other pitching and hitting threats, the Jays came out flat and listless. Those in attendance were left scratching their heads and wondering how one of the most disappointing and underachieving clubs in the league – devastated by injuries and twenty games under .500 – was able to so easily humble their hometown heroes in front of 40,000+ fans…in their own barn.

After Friday’s 15-8 lopsided victory over Minnesota, the Blue Jays find themselves with only 34 games left in the season and surrounded by two legitimate contenders to their division throne. Unlike the previous year of second half heroics which resulted in a veritable coast to the finish line (6.0 games ahead of the Yankees), this year’s conclusion is likely to be the most thrilling in years for a division now regarded by many as the toughest in all of baseball.

Here’s a quick glance at the remaining teams standing in the way of Toronto’s quest for back-to-back division championships:

Boston Red Sox – Jays lead season series 7-6
Games remaining: 3 in Toronto (September 9th to 11th), 3 in Boston (Sept. 30th, October 1st & 2nd)

The Red Sox are able to match the Blue Jays when it comes to their success at home and on the road. They have a wealth of talent and possess the best run differential in the American League. Betts, Ortiz, Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., Pedroia, and Leon are all in the top 40 in WAR – that’s two thirds of an entire lineup consisting of young guns, veteran situational hitters, and a bona fide Hall-of-Famer. And while they can’t pitch nearly as well (16th in the league, 4.15 ERA), there’s no doubting their ability to make it a race right down to the wire.

Baltimore Orioles – Jays lead season series 7-6
Games remaining: 3 in Baltimore (August 29th to 31st), 3 in Toronto (September 27th to 29th)

The Orioles have the best closer in the game (Britton), the best home run hitter in the league (Trumbo), and the best divisional manager (Showalter) who easily gives Gibbons a run for his money. As if that weren’t daunting enough, we should probably add Manny Machado into the argument for best player in the league. They give up the most runs in the division, have a starting staff which heralds an absolute stud (Tillman) and an absolute dud (Jimenez), and are led by an absolute warrior.

New York Yankees – Jays lead season series 9-3
Games remaining: 3 in New York (September 5th to 7th), 4 in Toronto (September 23rd to 26th)

The Jays have handled their old nemesis this year having won five consecutive series in New York. These are key games against a team battling major injuries to crucial players while trading away most of their vaunted bullpen (Miller, Chapman). The youth movement is in full bloom with blue chip prospects like Sanchez and Judge picking up the lion’s share of playing time as the Bronx Bombers make a final (albeit late) push for a wild card spot. While it’s not likely to happen, underestimating this team would be folly when there’s Yankee pride at stake.

Tampa Bay Rays – Rays lead season series 7-6
Games remaining: 3 in Tampa Bay (September 2nd to 4th), 3 in Toronto (September 12th to 14th)

The Rays are exclusively spoilers for the second half of the season after falling out of contention around late May. Prodigal pitching son Chris Archer sports 17 losses before September – the kind of annus horribilis which destroyed a promising season and somehow, amidst all the calamity, Tampa Bay still finds ways to beat the Jays with maddening regularity – including a stunning May sweep in front of “paltry” crowds of 25,000 back when the bandwagon was still in the fan garage.

Seattle Mariners – Mariners lead season series 2-1
Games remaining: 3 in Seattle (September 19th to 21th)

The Mariners are only 2 games out of the wild card hunt and remain hungry even as the Adam Lind honeymoon seems to have finally come to an end. Seattle has Cano, Seager, and Cruz providing ample firepower and have enough solid pitching on their staff led by Iwakuma – who took care of business in July while his team belted out 19 hits against Dickey and company.  Make no mistake – this is a very good baseball club that will fight tooth and nail in September.

Minnesota Twins – Jays lead season series 3-1
Games remaining: 3 in Toronto (September 26th to 28th)

Paul Molitor’s Twins had a .383 winning percentage before Friday’s game, which should make you appreciate how the former World Series hero and HOFer must feel about this lost year. The cupboards are hardly bare, and there is definite room for optimism in the future, but this is a lousy team today that the Jays must absolutely beat in order to compete down the stretch.

Los Angeles Angels – Angels lead season series 2-1
Games remaining: 4 in Los Angeles (September 15th to 18th)

Dropping two out of three recent games to the Angels was a painful reminder that teams with nothing to lose usually end up becoming the most challenging of adversaries. That was no exception earlier in the week for an organization wasting the best years of Mike Trout while simultaneously failing to generate enough prospects for the future. It’s a terrible mess that must be contained with four games during a vital stretch for the Jays.

Next: Exploring the impact of the Dioner Navarro trade

And there you have it – 4 teams bent on preventing us from entering the post-season while 3 others look towards the future, playing out what remains of their disappointing regular seasons with as much dignity as possible. With 72 wins under their belt, the Blue Jays would need to go 20-14 to hit 92 wins, a figure universally accepted as an ideal win total to secure a playoff appearance this year. And yet, the question still lingering on the furrowed brows and restless minds of the faithful remains…will it be enough?