Series Preview: Lowly Angels visit the Blue Jays

Game 3 : August 25 – 7:07 ET

Jered Weaver (8-11, 5.47 ERA, 5.86 FIP) vs.
J.A. Happ (17-3, 3.05 ERA, 3.89 FIP)

It is completely bizarre to admit, but Happ has firmly planted himself into the AL Cy Young discussion. He continues to baffle hitters and throw quality start after quality start. Furthermore, he’s improved the further the season has lasted. His strikeouts have continually increased, and his command is the best I’ve ever seen it.

He gave up three home runs in his latest start, but all of them were solo shots and he managed to strike out 9 hitters. Something Happ has done more this season that in the past is use his sinker. He’s throwing it 27.64% of the time, which represents a career high for him, and he’s consistently getting the ball down in the zone with the pitch.

Along with the sinker, the four-seam continues to be a very good pitch up in the zone and inside to righties, and he mixes his slider, curve and change to both handed hitters. He’s become a pitcher with good command and the ability to get swings and misses in a variety of ways.

Weaver, on the other hand, has had a terrible, terrible year. His -0.4 fWAR and 5.86 FIP are among the league’s worst, and his fastball velocity resembles an average MLB change up. We watched Buehrle succeed with a slow fastball, but the same hasn’t occurred for Weaver, who saw a sharp decline in velocity, rather than a slow decline like many veteran pitchers fall victim to.

The fastball velocity no longer allows his change up to be a successful pitch, and he’s getting an alarmingly low amount of strikeouts. His command is still good, but your chances of success with a 1.95 HR/9 and 27.7 GB% are extremely low. This is a matchup the Jays hitters should be looking forward to.