Series Preview: Lowly Angels visit the Blue Jays

Game 1: August 23 – 7:07 ET

Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 5.19 ERA, 3.73 FIP) vs.
R.A. Dickey (8-13, 4.51 ERA, 5.22 FIP)

Skaggs’ first two starts coming off Tommy John showed why he was a former top prospect and how he had success in 2014 before going down with the injury. He threw 12.1 scoreless innings against the Red Sox and Royals, notching 13 strikeouts and only walking three.

In his last three, he’s surrendered 15 ER in just 13.2 IP. It’s not that uncommon for a starter to come back from TJ with the stuff they once had, hence his good strikeout totals, but struggling with command. His walk rate is still good at 3.12, but he’s left too many balls over the heart of the plate in the last three outings and he’s been hurt.

Stuff-wise, his fastball averages 93-94 mph, while having the ability to get it into the 97 mph range. He complements that with a curve and change, both of which flash plus at times. He uses his four-seam nearly 60% of the time, so he’s a fastball heavy pitcher, and with only one breaking ball to worry about, the Jays hitters can lock in on either one of those offerings and look for pitches early in the count that are left over the heart of the plate.

Dickey continues to put together his worst campaign as a Blue Jay, as is 0.6 fWAR and 5.22 FIP are his worst marks to date. This is largely due to his problems with the home run. His 1.58 HR/9 is the worst mark of his career and well above his career mark of 1.14. The 1.58 number is also the tenth worst among qualified starters.

If he can manage to control the home run ball, his starts typically go well, but outside of that, there aren’t very many predictive measures that are reliable with regards to how his starts go.

Next: G2: Can Marco bounce back after command issues plague him?