Series Preview: Lowly Angels visit the Blue Jays

Across the Diamond

On the offensive side of things, the Angels are essentially league average with a 99 wRC+. As a team, the Angels strike out at the lowest rate in the entire league. Their 16.6% is first in the MLB by 1.7%, so they definitely put the ball in play on a consistent basis. However, despite putting the ball in play more consistently than any other team in the league, they fail to consistently drive the ball for extra bases. Their 118 HR’s are 25th in the league, and they rank 26th and 20th in ISO and SLG respectively.

When you have a league average offence, but you have arguably the best hitter in the entire game, it’s a testament to the rest of the hitters. They have some veteran hitters who can provide solid production and put together strong AB’s, with the likes of Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, and Yunel Escobar, but for the most part, their lineup is below average.

Behind Trout, who owns a ridiculous 164 wRC+, Escobar sits at 115, Calhoun sits at 112 and Pujols is at 103. Pujols is the biggest power threat of the three, while Calhoun is probably the best all around hitter, as he’s trimmed his strikeouts by nearly 8%, increased his plate discipline, and has shown the ability to consistently hit the ball hard on a line.

A name that the Jays pitching staff should gameplan for is C.J. Cron. The 26-year-old has posted a 117 wRC+, and is arguably the Angels best power threat behind Trout. He doesn’t have the home runs that Pujols has (23 vs 11) but his ISO and SLG are both higher by a significant margin.

His 33% hard contact mark and 41% fly ball percentage makes him a threat every time he steps to the plate, and he should be pitched accordingly. He’s a guy that could potentially fly under the radar in this lineup, but he provides some potential danger.

The Angels offence can get by, but their pitching is the real reason they’re so bad. They possess the league’s second worst fWAR from their pitching staff with a mark of 3.8 (Joe Biagini has 1.2, for some context on how bad that is). The only team worse is the Reds.

Their team ERA is 4.59, and that’s not a matter of bad luck either, as their FIP is an atrocious 4.72. Their 7.20 K/9 is second worst, and they lack firepower in the rotation and bullpen.

Losing Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs for significant periods of time due to various injuries has saddled their rotation with below average veterans. Skaggs is back, but coming off Tommy John, you can’t expect him to jump right back to where he was prior. The Tim Lincecum experiment went about as poorly as it could have, Ricky Nolasco is very poor, Jhoulys Chacin and Nick Tropeano have some strong qualities but neither belong in a major league rotation, and Jered Weaver is a shadow of his former self.

The only starter providing any real value is Shoemaker, who has a 3.61 FIP and 2.9 fWAR through 145.2 IP. He has solid strikeout numbers to go along with excellent command. He can struggle with the home run ball, which is why I still like the matchup for the Jays at home, but he can definitely give offences trouble.

Cam Bedrosian and Jose Alvarez are their best options out of the pen, as Joe Smith and Huston Street are having down years after having plenty of previous success in years past.

Next: Game 1: Can Skaggs rebound after three rough starts

Game 1: August 23 – 7:07 ET

Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 5.19 ERA, 3.73 FIP) vs.
R.A. Dickey (8-13, 4.51 ERA, 5.22 FIP)

Skaggs’ first two starts coming off Tommy John showed why he was a former top prospect and how he had success in 2014 before going down with the injury. He threw 12.1 scoreless innings against the Red Sox and Royals, notching 13 strikeouts and only walking three.

In his last three, he’s surrendered 15 ER in just 13.2 IP. It’s not that uncommon for a starter to come back from TJ with the stuff they once had, hence his good strikeout totals, but struggling with command. His walk rate is still good at 3.12, but he’s left too many balls over the heart of the plate in the last three outings and he’s been hurt.

Stuff-wise, his fastball averages 93-94 mph, while having the ability to get it into the 97 mph range. He complements that with a curve and change, both of which flash plus at times. He uses his four-seam nearly 60% of the time, so he’s a fastball heavy pitcher, and with only one breaking ball to worry about, the Jays hitters can lock in on either one of those offerings and look for pitches early in the count that are left over the heart of the plate.

Dickey continues to put together his worst campaign as a Blue Jay, as is 0.6 fWAR and 5.22 FIP are his worst marks to date. This is largely due to his problems with the home run. His 1.58 HR/9 is the worst mark of his career and well above his career mark of 1.14. The 1.58 number is also the tenth worst among qualified starters.

If he can manage to control the home run ball, his starts typically go well, but outside of that, there aren’t very many predictive measures that are reliable with regards to how his starts go.

Next: G2: Can Marco bounce back after command issues plague him?

Game 2 : August 24 – 7:07 ET

Matt Shoemaker (7-13, 4.14 ERA, 3.61 FIP) vs.
Marco Estrada (7-5, 3.20 ERA, 4.17 FIP)

The aforementioned Shoemaker has thrown well this year, reverting back to his 2014 form when he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA. Last year, his HR/9 spiked and it had a huge effect on his performance. His 2016 mark has gone back down to 1.05, but the home run is probably the biggest factor in his inflated ERA.

His batted ball profile — 24% LD, 38.7% GB, and 37.3% FB — means the ball is put in the air on a regular basis. Combine that with his fairly high 31.1% hard contact percentage and you have the potential for a home run problem.

This bodes well for the Jays and Shoemaker’s start in the Rogers Centre. In one start last year in Toronto, Shoemaker allowed 7 ER in 6 IP, including two home runs on May 21.

Shoemaker’s velocity is up across the board, as his four-seam fastball is averaging 92.29 mph, up from 90.82 last season. He also mixes in a sinker, slider and the occasional curve, but he relies heavily on the splitter to put hitters away on a regular basis.

He gets whiffs on 21.30% of his splitters, and he buries down in the zone to get swings and misses. He also gets 18.86% on his sliders, and he also gets his four-seam up in the zone to get pop-ups and whiffs.

He has a diverse repertoire and he uses three different pitches to get hitters out, and excellent command to use all of those pitches in a variety of situations.

Since his start on the 3rd of August, Estrada has struggled in his last two starts against the Yankees and Rays. He’s surrendered 7 ER in 9 IP, including 4 BB’s against the Rays. Along with the walks, he gave up 3 HR in those 9 IP and that has inflated his FIP.

The Angels lineup isn’t strong, and if Estrada can pitch well to the Angels home run threats he stands a good chance at getting back on track in this one.

Next: G3: Happ vs Weaver provides excellent matchup for Jays

Game 3 : August 25 – 7:07 ET

Jered Weaver (8-11, 5.47 ERA, 5.86 FIP) vs.
J.A. Happ (17-3, 3.05 ERA, 3.89 FIP)

It is completely bizarre to admit, but Happ has firmly planted himself into the AL Cy Young discussion. He continues to baffle hitters and throw quality start after quality start. Furthermore, he’s improved the further the season has lasted. His strikeouts have continually increased, and his command is the best I’ve ever seen it.

He gave up three home runs in his latest start, but all of them were solo shots and he managed to strike out 9 hitters. Something Happ has done more this season that in the past is use his sinker. He’s throwing it 27.64% of the time, which represents a career high for him, and he’s consistently getting the ball down in the zone with the pitch.

Along with the sinker, the four-seam continues to be a very good pitch up in the zone and inside to righties, and he mixes his slider, curve and change to both handed hitters. He’s become a pitcher with good command and the ability to get swings and misses in a variety of ways.

Weaver, on the other hand, has had a terrible, terrible year. His -0.4 fWAR and 5.86 FIP are among the league’s worst, and his fastball velocity resembles an average MLB change up. We watched Buehrle succeed with a slow fastball, but the same hasn’t occurred for Weaver, who saw a sharp decline in velocity, rather than a slow decline like many veteran pitchers fall victim to.

The fastball velocity no longer allows his change up to be a successful pitch, and he’s getting an alarmingly low amount of strikeouts. His command is still good, but your chances of success with a 1.95 HR/9 and 27.7 GB% are extremely low. This is a matchup the Jays hitters should be looking forward to.