Blue Jays role for Justin Smoak in playoff run becoming less certain

The Toronto Blue Jays knew what they were getting when they locked up Justin Smoak with a two-year, $8.25 million contract earlier this summer that included a 2019 team option.

A powerful but flawed switch-hitter, Smoak raises the floor of the roster when he’s at his best and should factor into the 1B/DH dynamic over the next two seasons, but in the short-term picture of the Blue Jays’ current playoff run, his recent struggles could lead to a shrunken role.

Since the calendar turned to July, Smoak has hit just .181 with a .244 on-base percentage over 25 games (78 plate appearances). The power has sustained, with six of his 13 home runs coming in this span, but empty at-bats become more difficult towards the bottom of a lineup that now features the strikeout-prone Melvin Upton Jr. and unproven Darrell Ceciliani.

More from Toronto Blue Jays News

• Matt Chapman has been exactly what the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: The goalposts are moving in the right direction
• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King

Smoak’s defence is often held up as a redeeming quality but the metrics have failed to back that up, and going by those same numbers (which can certainly have their shortcomings as a measurement tool for first-basemen), Smoak is having one of his poorer defensive seasons. His current 2016 WAR sits at 0.2.

For now, Smoak’s job is safe. Jesus Montero doesn’t appear to be in the MLB plans and Rowdy Tellez won’t be pushing the 25-man roster until 2017 at the earliest, but the eventual return of Toronto’s injured outfielders will create a squeeze.

Kevin Pillar‘s return will exist in more of a vacuum when it relates to Smoak, but Jose Bautista could conceivably slide back in as a full-time designated hitter when he’s back from a recent knee sprain.

This is Bautista’s second trip to the disabled list after a bout of turf toe earlier in the season, and if he returns as expected in late August, there is little-to-no reason for the Blue Jays to risk Bautista further by playing him in the field. Beyond the basic risk of injury, he’s been very poor defensively and his once-dominant throwing arm has all but abandoned him.

Toronto will essentially be choosing between the net impact of: RF Bautista, 1B Smoak, DH Encarnacion -or- RF Upton Jr., 1B Encarnacion, DH Bautista.

The play of Upton and Smoak up until that time could help to increase the Jays’ comfort level in making the move to full-time DH with Bautista. In that case, Smoak would become a primary pinch-hitting option off the bench throughout September and the playoffs.

Next: What has Bautista done to his free agent value?

Follow on Twitter:    @KeeganMatheson
@JaysJournal