Blue Jays vs. Astros: Full series preview and pitching matchups

Game 1: August 12 – 7:07 ET

Joe Musgrove (0-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.93 FIP) vs.
Francisco Liriano (6-11, 5.34 ERA, 5.24 FIP)

Liriano’s first start with the Jays looks less than spectacular on paper, but the stuff and fairly decent command he showed was a very good sign. It was only his sixth start of the year where he allowed two or less walks, and while it’s impossible to predict whether or not this is likely to occur on a regular basis going forward based on one start, it’s a good start to his tenure nonetheless.

His sinker averaged 94.37 mph, which admittedly, I didn’t realize before the start that he was still throwing that hard. He even touched 96 on multiple occasions, and he consistently kept the ball low in the zone. He wasn’t the most efficient with the pitch, and he worked himself into many deep counts because he threw a lot of first pitch balls, but the velocity and movement was a dominant combination.

I was actually more impressed with his off-speed stuff. He seemed to be able to throw both his slider and changeup when he was behind in the count. Perhaps it was a confidence he had with Russell Martin making the calls behind the plate. This may seem like a minor part of pitching, but the mental side of pitching cannot be understated, and when a pitcher has the utmost confidence in what the catcher is throwing down it can make a huge difference in the results.

Regardless of what the ultimate reason was, I was impressed by his ability to throw these pitches in hitter counts. It aided his ability to keep hitters off balance, and he was able to generate both whiffs and weak contact with these pitches. He generated nine swing and misses with his slider, just one underneath his season high of 10.

Overall, it was a successful first start for the Jay, and I really liked what I saw. Inconsistency has clearly been an issue this season, so we’ll have to see numerous starts like this one in order to trust him moving into the playoffs.

Musgrove quickly became familiar to the Jays as he struck out eight batters in 4.1 IP in his major league debut out of the bullpen on August 2. He relies on excellent command of both his four-seam and sinker, and his main go to of-fspeed pitch is a slider that averages 82.25 mph. He also mixes in a changeup and a curve.

He absolutely diced the Jays in his debut, and delivered a very good start against the Rangers in his first MLB start. He went 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. He doesn’t have a typical strikeout pitcher repertoire, but all of his pitches play up because of his command and his ability to use all of his pitches in any scenario.

The former Blue Jays first rounder has built quite the minor league track record. In 348.2 professional innings across all levels, he has only issued 42 walks. That’s a 1.1 BB/9 and he’s notched a 7.95 SO/BB ratio. Obviously, that includes levels in rookie ball as well, but his command is well documented. His BB/9 across three levels last year was 0.7 and this year it was 1.1 before getting called up. He will pound the zone with his sinking fastball, and the Jays will need to attack pitches that leak into the zone.

This is a matchup I’m really looking forward to, as Liriano’s stuff is exciting to watch and Musgrove is a kid who brings both a strong minor league reputation and some early success in the majors.

Next: Can the Jays take advantage of homer prone McHugh?