Blue Jays vs. Astros: Full series preview and pitching matchups

Heading into this weekend’s series against the Houston Astros, the Blue Jays sit a half game above the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. Every game from here until the end of the season will have big implications on this race, and it starts against the young Astros.

The Astros sit only two games back in the wild card race, coming off a doubleheader win including 25 runs against the Twins, and they will be looking to turn it on down the stretch.

The Jays were able to take three of four from the Astros in their latest series, and hold the Astros bats to just five runs in the four games, as they were able to completely shut down the Astros young guns on offence.

The Jays will see a former prospect of their own in Joe Musgrove, who will make his second MLB start. He was able to dice the Jays in a relief appearance in that series, and he was one of the key contributors in the large amounts of K’s the Jays had in that series.

Beyond Musgrove, the Jays will see Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers, both who provide favourable matchups for the Jays. McHugh has decent strikeout stuff and a fairly strong track record of success, but the Jays offence was able to tattoo him for three long balls last time out, and he’s been struggling with hard contact and home runs.

Fiers provides a great matchup for the Jays, as he struggles with the home run ball and his strikeouts have gotten to a horrible rate. It could be a big weekend for the Jays bats.

Next: Altuve, Springer and Correa lead the Astros

Game 1: August 12 – 7:07 ET

Joe Musgrove (0-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.93 FIP) vs.
Francisco Liriano (6-11, 5.34 ERA, 5.24 FIP)

Liriano’s first start with the Jays looks less than spectacular on paper, but the stuff and fairly decent command he showed was a very good sign. It was only his sixth start of the year where he allowed two or less walks, and while it’s impossible to predict whether or not this is likely to occur on a regular basis going forward based on one start, it’s a good start to his tenure nonetheless.

His sinker averaged 94.37 mph, which admittedly, I didn’t realize before the start that he was still throwing that hard. He even touched 96 on multiple occasions, and he consistently kept the ball low in the zone. He wasn’t the most efficient with the pitch, and he worked himself into many deep counts because he threw a lot of first pitch balls, but the velocity and movement was a dominant combination.

I was actually more impressed with his off-speed stuff. He seemed to be able to throw both his slider and changeup when he was behind in the count. Perhaps it was a confidence he had with Russell Martin making the calls behind the plate. This may seem like a minor part of pitching, but the mental side of pitching cannot be understated, and when a pitcher has the utmost confidence in what the catcher is throwing down it can make a huge difference in the results.

Regardless of what the ultimate reason was, I was impressed by his ability to throw these pitches in hitter counts. It aided his ability to keep hitters off balance, and he was able to generate both whiffs and weak contact with these pitches. He generated nine swing and misses with his slider, just one underneath his season high of 10.

Overall, it was a successful first start for the Jay, and I really liked what I saw. Inconsistency has clearly been an issue this season, so we’ll have to see numerous starts like this one in order to trust him moving into the playoffs.

Musgrove quickly became familiar to the Jays as he struck out eight batters in 4.1 IP in his major league debut out of the bullpen on August 2. He relies on excellent command of both his four-seam and sinker, and his main go to of-fspeed pitch is a slider that averages 82.25 mph. He also mixes in a changeup and a curve.

He absolutely diced the Jays in his debut, and delivered a very good start against the Rangers in his first MLB start. He went 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. He doesn’t have a typical strikeout pitcher repertoire, but all of his pitches play up because of his command and his ability to use all of his pitches in any scenario.

The former Blue Jays first rounder has built quite the minor league track record. In 348.2 professional innings across all levels, he has only issued 42 walks. That’s a 1.1 BB/9 and he’s notched a 7.95 SO/BB ratio. Obviously, that includes levels in rookie ball as well, but his command is well documented. His BB/9 across three levels last year was 0.7 and this year it was 1.1 before getting called up. He will pound the zone with his sinking fastball, and the Jays will need to attack pitches that leak into the zone.

This is a matchup I’m really looking forward to, as Liriano’s stuff is exciting to watch and Musgrove is a kid who brings both a strong minor league reputation and some early success in the majors.

Next: Can the Jays take advantage of homer prone McHugh?

Game 2: August 13 – 1:07 ET

Collin McHugh (7-9, 4.69 ERA, 3.78 FIP) vs.
Aaron Sanchez (11-2, 2.85 ERA, 3.30 FIP)

Coming off 3.3 and 3.9 fWAR season, McHugh was looking like a legitimate number 2-3 major league starter for an absolute bargain, but he hasn’t nearly been getting the same results this year. His 2016 WAR is still strong at 2.4 due to his strong FIP of 3.78 because of good strikeout and walk numbers, but he’s struggled with the home run ball, which is the main cause of the rise in his ERA.

His 2015 ERA of 3.89 was actually higher than his 3.58 FIP, but those numbers have reversed this year. He still grades out well due to his ability to get strikeouts (8.88 K/9) and limit walks (2.52 BB/9), but his home run rate has gone from 0.84 to 1.19. Compounding problems, his hard hit rate has jumped from a respectable 25.1% to a relatively high 31.1%.

It seems like he’s having an issue of leaving too many pitches in the big part of the zone, and despite the fact that he’s been able to get whiffs with his solid stuff, major league hitters will make you pay for mistakes in the zone.

It reminds me a little of what we’ve seen with Stroman this year. Good stuff, good control, but at times, simply leaving too many pitches in the heart of the zone, leading to an increase in the amount extra base hits given up. His velocity, pitch usage, and whiff rates are largely the same, but the ISO and SLG on his three main pitches (four-seam, cutter, and curve) have all risen to a large degree. This points at a problem with pitch location within the zone.

With all that being said, it will be important for Jays hitter to take advantage of these mistakes. Obviously, this could easily be said for any starter, but when a successful pitcher like McHugh is having these issues, it’s important to take advantage of that, because he’s proven he can shut down an offence when they don’t.

Only one of his last 10 starts has resulted in more than three ER, so he’s found his groove a little bit in the second half, but the fact he has still struggled with the home run ball during this time is a good sign for the Jays offence. The last time the Jays faced him, they hit three home runs, all of the solo variety, so it they can do a better job of getting on base, I like this matchup for them.

Sanchez is set to make his second start since the six man rotation was announced, and it was the first time since June 12 against the Orioles that he’s allowed more than 3 ER. His velocity was excellent and all of his pitches looked very sharp, but his command wasn’t completely in tack.

This shouldn’t be any cause for concern, and there wasn’t anything else I saw that should inhibit him moving forward. Expect Sanchez to get back to what’s made him extremely successful this season.

Next: Will Stroman dominate the Astros again?

Game 3: August 14 – 1:07 ET

Mike Fiers (8-5, 4.46 ERA, 4.65 FIP) vs.
Marcus Stroman (8-5, 4.76 ERA, 3.86 FIP)

After being a late round draft pick in 2009, and largely deemed as an organizational depth guy for the Brewers, Fiers broke out in 2014 at the age of 29. Mind you, it was a small sample, but he posted a 2.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP through 71.2 IP. His peripherals: 9.54 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, made him a really interesting pitcher and a potentially valuable commodity for the Brewers moving forward.

Last year, his numbers dipped somewhat, but were still very respectable: 3.69 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 8.98 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9. His biggest problem was the home run spike, and that problem has escalated this year.

His 1.49 HR/9 this year has really hurt his ratios, and having his strikeouts take a huge help has not helped his case also. His 6.62 K/9 is 18th worst among qualified starters, and that HR/9 is 12th worst, so it’s safe to say that what made him successful the last couple of years hasn’t transferred to 2016.

His four-seam fastball sits right at 90 mph, but much like we see with Marco Estrada, he has a rising action to the pitch so he isn’t afraid to use it up in the zone to get whiffs. He also mixes in a cutter, curve, change and slider.

The repertoire is diverse, but he doesn’t have a true out pitch, especially with regards to his breaking balls. Neither of them garner double digit whiff rates, and he doesn’t turn to them to get quality hitters out. Mind you, his whiff rates have decreased on all of his pitches except for his cutter, so it may be a case of a pitcher losing some zip and action on his pitches.

He has good command, but when his stuff isn’t missing bats, and his mistakes get crushed, he’s going to struggle. This has the makings of an excellent matchup for the Jays.

Next: What has Bautista done to his free agent value?

Stroman’s season has been a series of ups and downs, there’s no doubt about that, but his best start of the year came against these Astros just two weeks ago. He struckout 13 batters and looked downright nasty.

His last start against the Royals wasn’t nearly as dominant, as he laboured through 5 innings against the Royals, but he was still able to generate 12 swing and misses, including 10 with his slider, so that points towards his excellent stuff making an emergence.

It was the type of start where he got burnt by weak hits and infield singles, and I’m still encouraged by what I’ve seen of him as of late.