Toronto Blue Jays: The Dickey-Thole Effect

There are countless stars and numerous heavenly objects to which the eye can see across the panorama at night – Alpha Centauri, Proxima, and Sirius are just a few of the celestial bodies which runs our imagination wild in the darkest of hours. These are heavenly gems which shine brightly when called upon to illuminate the sky with wonderment. Sadly, the Dickey-Thole constellation is not one of them. In fact, it’s in danger of quickly becoming an asteroid belt.

With a 10.44 ERA over his last three starts, Dickey is struggling mightily. He’s not simply scuffling, he’s labouring, and there seems to be an abundance of rising anxiety spreading across Jays nation with repeatedly short outings, visibly lackluster efforts, and disturbingly bad pitch selection wrapped around a fundamental lack of control. It’s made the faithful miserable, crestfallen, and left to ponder the events which took place on December 17^th, 2012, when the Toronto Blue Jays traded Travis D’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra for knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and Mike Nickeas. A day that’s also known to some fans as Helheim Monday as a nod to Norse mythology and a desire to feel generally masochistic.

With apologies to Travis, John, Wuilmer and Mike, who were never a part of the value narrative when it came to this transaction, this trade has gone down in the annals of history as “Dickey for Thor” – a colloquially unendearing reference for Jays loyalists to beat themselves up repeatedly over a monumental decision which, hyperbole notwithstanding, will likely be discussed for baseball generations to come. Many times. Over and over again.

This trade has gone down in the annals of history as “Dickey for Thor” – a colloquially unendearing reference for Jays loyalists to beat themselves up over a monumental decision which will likely be discussed for baseball generations to come.

Of course, in all fairness, it would be ludicrous to suggest that the timing wasn’t ideal when Alex Anthopoulos decided to pull the trigger on this cosmic overture, luring the reigning NL Cy Young winner over to an AL East team. Hot off the heels of a massive blockbuster trade with the Miami Marlins in early November, the sky seemed the limit for the Jays GM in his quest to fortify his team with a true window of competition – even as many professional scouts mourned the prospect of trading two of the Lansing Three to be absolutely unfathomable. It was an epic gamble that was largely overlooked when the arrival of Dickey set off a powerful wave of off-season excitement and anticipation not felt since some bloke named Roger Clemens showed up in 1996, as a free agent, and proceeded to go supernova with back-to-back pitching triple crowns.

Coming off a monster year for the Mets, Dickey arrived to tremendous fanfare and appreciation of his zen-master sensibilities with his new team. He became an instant media darling, always offering the perfect sound bite with wizened perspectives on the science and/or art of pitching, and quickly becoming a fan favourite with his refreshingly candid answers to often predictable and unnervingly clichéd questions. But this was the American League and the Rogers Centre, and suddenly the mystique of his candor became trivial compared to his recurring bouts of “ordinariness.”

It wasn’t long before everything went off-script and Murphy’s Law prevailed with a vengeance. Everything that could go wrong went wrong, and Dickey was smack dab in the middle of it. He finished 14-13 with a 4.21 ERA in his first taste of the American League while his splits were down across the board. He gave up more hits, more home runs, walked more, struck out less, and delivered astonishingly middling results which were easily dismissed (in the media but not with fans) for his “innings eating” ability. It wasn’t that his numbers were particularly terrible – it was that they simply weren’t good enough to contend.

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Furthermore, the inclusion of a personalized caddy and dedicated catcher included in the trade was supposed to be the tonic to contain his formidable knuckler. It’s universally accepted that Josh Thole occupies a coveted roster spot on the team solely to make Dickey function like a well-oiled machine capable of bringing success to the club – even if his offensive contributions at the plate are loathsome. In 156 games, Thole has 13 extra base hits and 2 home runs. He’s hitting .157 while proudly displaying a Wile E. Coyote running prowess on the bases, essentially making the team pay a heavy price for sitting a 4-time all-star and one of the top 5 paid catchers in the game. It’s really simple – when Josh isn’t hitting and R.A. isn’t pitching, you have the baseball equivalent of a black hole.

The 2012 edition of the Jays went 12-11 in April and hovered around .500 until fading out of contention by mid-July. Once the bottom fell out and the season was over (73-89, .451 winning percentage), Anthopoulos found himself holding his hat wondering how a team with so much substantial talent managed to produce such a disastrous year. 6 of the 12 top WAR roster players have since come and gone – Rasmus, Reyes, Lawrie, Lind, Davis, and Janssen.

Looking to rebound in 2013 and determined to prove his detractors wrong, R.A. delivered a virtually identical campaign with a slightly better earned run average. And again in 2014. In fact, it comes as no shame in acknowledging that Dickey may (existentially) be the second coming of Jim Clancy – a golden era Jays workhorse who delivered the same reliable mediocrity which defined his career. The problem is that Clancy wasn’t acquired for a generational pitcher who, at age 23, is considered to be one of the best starters in the National League.

Perhaps our mistake was in assuming Dickey would resemble the pitcher who captivated baseball as a New York Met, armed with a virtually unhittable knuckleball thrown three different ways with changing speeds. Instead, it would seem we received an average pitcher whose saving grace is that he can throw 200 average innings and be used for spot starts on a Wednesday afternoon – even if his career ERA is 5.73 in such scenarios. Or perhaps we’re simply overestimating how effective a knuckleballer truly is during this era of the sport?

It comes as no shame in acknowledging that Dickey may be the second coming of Jim Clancy – a golden era workhorse who delivered the same reliable mediocrity which defined his career. The problem is that Clancy wasn’t acquired for a generational pitcher who, at age 23, is considered to be one of the best starters in the National League.

With 60 games remaining in the balance of the regular season, my affinity for Dickey has yet to falter even if his performance against San Diego was profoundly disappointing. He strikes me as a solid teammate and a vibrant conversationalist who no doubt inspires this roster with his philosophical musings and introspective observations. He’s a true survivor, a highly respected clubhouse guy, and he’s traveled around the world conducting the kind of philanthropic pursuits which makes me want to put his number on my jersey.

For now I’ll just take one simple quality start. One seven inning effort without an asterisk, without apologists like Buck or Tabler defending him, and without any of his quirky post-game allusions to adversity or humidity or precipitation during media scrums – because in a brutal three-team race against vulnerable opponents ripe for the picking, this team cannot afford to have a struggling veteran relying on excuses when other pitching variables remain in flux – from Aaron Sanchez and his controversial innings limit, to Marco Estrada and his wonky back, or to Marcus Stroman with his maddening inconsistency.

The time for Dickey to shine brightly is now, and it wouldn’t hurt one bit if Thole joined him on the comet trail of success straight to the post-season. Let’s just hope that, along the way, the gravitational pull of mostly forgettable on-field performances this year doesn’t end up leaving them both stranded on Mars.

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