Indians carry winning streak into Toronto to face Blue Jays: Series Preview

Across the Diamond: Cleveland Indians

The Indians staff ERA for the entire season sits at 3.46, ranking 4th in all of baseball, and that’s supported by a 3.84 FIP. They’ve been adept at getting strikeouts, as evidence by their 8.36 K/9, and their walk rate is a very good 2.71.

Over the last 14 days, those numbers have improved to 1.82, 3.12, 8.50 and 2.23 respectively, so their already strong numbers going into the streak have received a huge boost. This staff is lights out right now. Over their last 12 wins, they’ve allowed more than three runs in only two games.

On the offensive side of the ball, they haven’t been quite as dominant, but there’s no questioning the talent in their lineup. Their team wRC+ of 102 ranks 10th in the league, one spot behind the Jays. Leading the way is the ultra-talented Francisco Lindor, who has a 123 wRC+ while playing exceptional defence. He has power and speed from both side of the plate, and he strikes out a very low rate of 12.3%. He’s a weapon wherever he is on the field and he’s one of the most exciting young players in the game.

Veterans Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, and Rajai Davis bring a diverse set of skills throughout the lineup, but they’ve all posted wRC+ numbers above 100 as they’ve provided the Indians with some depth in their lineup. Tyler Naquin and Lonnie Chisenhall, who mostly play against RHP, have also been important parts of the supporting cast.

Ultimately, I think this lineup is playing above their head a little bit; however, their success can’t be overlooked. They don’t strike out a lot, they draw a fair amount of walks, and while they don’t have any hitters who boast huge power potential, they have a decent amount of home run power balanced throughout the lineup.

Another aspect of this team that leads to much of their success is their defensive prowess. They rank seventh in all of baseball in Fangraphs defensive WAR metric, while also ranking 4th in UZR. Their DRS is at -6, which is bizarre, but nonetheless, they look to be one of the AL’s best fielding teams.

Next: Game 1: Carrasco vs Dickey

Game One: June 30 – 7:07 pm ET

Carlos Carrasco (3-2, 2.73 ERA, 4.25 FIP) vs.
RA Dickey (5-8, 4.23 ERA, 5.22 FIP)

Dickey continues to post an ERA better than the rest of his peripherals would suggest it would be, as they’ve  gotten worse than last year’s, but that’s what the unpredictability that the knuckleball brings.

Carrasco is a far more interesting pitcher, and the way in which Jays hitters should attack him is far more interesting, so I will use this space as means to discuss that.

After missing a chunk of time with an injury, Carrasco has returned to his prior form and seems to be back up to speed. If that injury hadn’t occurred, he probably would have been one of the front runners for this year’s AL Cy Young, as his performance over the last two years, despite lower innings totals, have been Cy Young worthy.

He’s coming off his best start of the season, a complete game shutout of the Tigers: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. This line is a good example of just how dominant he can be. His 7.88 K/9 is deflated from his totals of the last two, 10.58 and 9.40 respectively, but his BB/9 is a very good 2.07 and his 51.6 GB% is also excellent. This is a guy who boasts incredible strikeout potential due to his mid-90s heat and three strikeout offerings, but pairs that with excellent control and the ability to get the ball on the ground. He’s a true difference maker on the mound.

His fourseam and sinker average 95.05 and 94.18 mph, and he pairs that with a change, slider and curve. He uses all five offering at least 13.43% of the time, and doesn’t throw any of them more than 37%, so his repertoire and pitch selection is diverse.

Furthermore, he gets double digit whiff rates on four of his pitches, including a 24.50 on his slider this year, and 28.31 mark on his curve last year. So, there’s no questioning he has a number of weapons to go to with two strikes. His change has gotten whiffs right around 20% the last two years as well.

Clearly, the guys has a lot of weapons, and for the Jays to counter that, they’ll have to be aggressive on fastballs in the zone that are usually going to be thrown early in the count. His fourseam is really the only pitch of his that gets hit hard, as opponents have a .417 BA and .683 SLG% against it.

Once he gets to two strikes he has so many weapons, he can expand the zone and make hitters look silly. His command is good, and he relies on the fastball to get ahead; therefore, the Jays should look to attack early in the count and prevent him from getting in counts where he can turn to one of his many strikeout offerings.

Next: Game 2: Can Stroman make the necessary adjustments?

Game Two: July 1 – 1:07 pm ET

Josh Tomlin (9-1, 3.32 ERA, 4.86 FIP) vs.
Marcus Stroman (6-4, 5.33 ERA, 4.05 FIP)

The story of Marcus Stroman this year is a hard one to listen to. This is a young man who exerts an extreme amount of confidence and energy, and you really want to see a kid like this exceed, but that’s been far from the case this year.

Why? Well, that’s been hard to distinguish. I still believe it’s a pitch selection/repertoire issue, as his most successful time as a big leaguer came when he was actively mixing pitches in all situations and locations. He’s become too sinker heavy, and hitters are whaling on it.

Another problem I see when he pitches is the lack of differentiation between his two breaking pitches. They come in on the same plane, making it easier for hitters to distinguish spin and attack breaking ball in the zone. If he were to separate the two offerings, hitters would not only have to see spin, but see what kind of spin in order to guess what kind of break it will have.

It makes a hitters job incredibly difficult when a pitcher has multiple breaking balls that separate on different planes.

He’s a work in progress right now, as unfortunate as it is to say. There are clearly some issues here, and every step in the right direction is a good thing, so hopefully we can see some of those from Stroman in this one.

Tomlin is a guy who will rely on strong command and pitch diversity to get soft contact. He’s not going to get a lot of swing and misses as his stuff lacks fire power, but he’s proven to be a weapon in this very good rotation due to his savvy veteran presence on the mound.

Next: Game 3: Bauer's resurgence as a starting pitcher

Game Three: July 2 – 1:07 pm ET

Trevor Bauer (6-2, 3.19 ERA, 3.44 FIP) vs.
Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.81 ERA, 4.06 FIP)

The aforementioned Bauer has turned his career around and become a weapon for the Indians this year, mostly due to his ability to limit the walks and get ground balls while continuing to get strikeouts.

His 2.99 BB/9 rate is nearly a full walk below his career rate of 3.94, and much better than last years number of 4.04. This control improvement has allowed his good stuff to play up. Another piece of evidence that supports his control this year, is his career high GB% rate of 50%, exactly 10% higher than his career average.

He’s getting ahead on a more consistent basis, and he’s pitching in the lower parts of the zone, then when he gets to two strikes, he has a couple of different weapons to get hitters out.

It’s also worth mentioning that his velocity has increased nearly a full mph on both his fourseam and sinker, which makes a great combo with the control improvement he’s shown. Much like Carrasco, Bauer is able to use 5 pitches at least 13.41% of the time, while not using any pitch more than 31.84%.

He compliments his fourseam and sinker with a cutter, curve and change. All of his pitches except for the sinker notch whiff rates above 10%, as he’s able to use his cutter, change or curve with two strikes. He’s always had an impressive array of pitches, but the command he’s shown as a starter this year has allowed him to use them in pitcher’s counts more often.

There really haven’t been a lot of holes in his game this year, but the same could be said for the pitcher facing him in Marco Estrada, so this one could be quite the pitching matchup.

Next: Game 4: Jays in tough against Kluber

Game Four: July 3 – 1:07 pm ET

Corey Kluber (8-7, 3.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP) vs.
JA Happ (10-3, 3.70 ERA, 4.49 FIP)

Happ’s underwhelming peripherals are starting to catch up to him a little bit as we’ve seen that ERA rise as of late, but I don’t think anyone would be complaining if he can keep it in the 3.70 – 3.90 range for the duration of the year. However, I think this is another tough matchup for the Jays.

Corey Kluber hasn’t been as dominant since his 2014 Cy Young season, but he is absolutely still one of the top pitchers in the AL. His K/9 has fallen from 10.27 in 2014 to 9.93 in 2015 and 8.95 this year, but his walk rate has remained elite, and his soft contact rate is actually higher right now than what it was in 2014.

He’s definitely declining with age here, but there’s no questioning he still has very good stuff. Since 2014, his fourseam and sinker velocity has dropped over an mph, but his repertoire is still excellent. His cutter is a borderline slider due to its nasty movement, and his slider is one of the best in the game.

He’ll also flash a change to lefties and he’ll run his fastball into the mid 90’s when he needs to. He’s getting whiff rates of 25.87%, 24.55%, and 15.32% with his slider, change and cutter, and he can use all three to get swing and misses in a variety of situations.

Next: Listen: Jays Nest Podcast ep. 80! JB, EE, pitching

Like I said, he’s definitely not the pitcher he was in 2014, but he can’t be overlooked when discussing the best pitchers in the AL. With himself, Carrasco and Bauer all taking the hill against the Jays in this series, the Jays offence will most definitely have to be on their game this weekend.