Blue Jays and Rockies meet in Tulowitzki’s homecoming: Full series preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are heading to Coors Field. This should be fun.

The Colorado Rockies currently sit 36-39, well back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL Central division but keeping pace with 41-36 Dodgers. Not surprisingly, the Rockies’ bats have been the story in 2016.

Colorado’s 397 runs ranks second in baseball behind only the Boston Red Sox. Their 102 home runs put them fifth, just behind the Blue Jays who sit third with 110, and they rank in the top four when it comes to batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

All of this without Troy Tulowitzki anchoring the lineup, who will be making his first trip back to Coors after the 2015 trade. Tulowitzki had spent his entire career with the Rockies, and ranks highly on many of the club’s all-time leaderboards.

Career WAR:  3rd  (39.1)
Batting AVG:  8th  (.299)
On-Base %:  8th  (.371)
Games Played:  4th  (1048)
Hits:  5th  (1165)
Home Runs:  T-5th  (188)

Impressive numbers considering that Todd Helton and Larry Walker make up the few names ahead of him in many of those stats.

Not surprisingly, Colorado’s pitching has left much to be desired. Their 5.07 team ERA is the third-highest in baseball and their opponent’s batting average of .278 is the second worst league-wide behind only the Minnesota Twins.

Across the Diamond: Chicago White Sox

If Nolan Arenado played in New York, he’d be the toast of baseball. The third-baseman boasts a .963 OPS with 21 home runs, working in tandem with the incredible Trevor Story who has sent 19 balls over the wall.

Second-baseman DJ LeMahieu is as solid as they come, batting .327 with some pop and an on-base percentage of .395. Both Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are enjoying excellent seasons at the plate, too, with 12 and 16 home runs respectively.

When it comes to the Rockies’ bullpen, they’ve been searching for answers all year long. With Jake McGee still on the disabled list, Carlos Estevez has taken over the closer’s role but sports an ERA of 4.28.

Now, on to the game-by-game pitching matchups. On the surface, they should favour Toronto.

Next: Game 1: Staff ace takes on Colorado's young gun

Game 1:  Monday, June 27th  –  8:40 p.m. ET

Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.70 ERA) vs.
Jon Gray (4-3, 4.80 ERA)

Here’s an interesting matchup off the top: two starters that are coming off abbreviated outings due to minor physical issues their last time out.

Jon Gray had his last start limited to just four innings due to arm fatigue, though he likely would have been yanked even if he were at full strength. The right-hander allowed four runs on three hits and four walks, but had been coming off a stretch of five stronger starts in late May and early June.

The 2013 third overall pick has often found trouble at Coors Field, however, sporting at ERA north of 5.00 and an inflated season-long HR/FB% of 17.6. His power arm has been as advertised, however, averaging over 95.0 MPH on his fastball and striking out 9.74 batters per nine innings.

Along with that fastball, which Gray turns to 57% of the time, he’ll also throw his slider 30% of the time and dabble with a curveball or changeup. His slider has been especially problematic for hitters this year with excellent movement.

Estrada, on the other hand, left his most recent start after six innings with back soreness. This was something that hampered Estrada in spring training and almost ate into his season, so the Blue Jays will be monitoring this closely. The team is reportedly considering a program to limit his workload in the second half of the season so that Estrada still has some gas left for the playoff stretch.

With 1.7 WAR through his first 14 starts, Estrada has already come close to his mark of 1.8 last season as he’s limited opponents to an incredible 0.98 WHIP. This has been aided by a .183 opponent’s BABIP, but it’s not all luck for Estrada, he’s been forcing weak contact (especially pop-ups) at an excellent rate.

The changeup artist has also been racking up the strikeouts at a much higher clip than last year with 8.10 K/9.

Coors Field doesn’t fit well with Estrada’s past reputation of being a fly ball (see: home run) pitcher, but he’s grown increasingly strong at avoiding that since joining the Blue Jays. Even when the long ball does strike, it’s rare that Estrada has runners on base.

Next: Game 2: Happ takes on an ideal matchup for Jays

Game 2:  Tuesday, June 28th  –  8:40 p.m. ET

J.A. Happ (9-3, 3.42 ERA)  vs.
Eddie Butler (2-4, 6.71 ERA)

Eddie Butler has been rocked at home this season. And, well, in general.

The right-hander has allowed 11 home runs in just 51.0 innings pitched, and without dominant strikeout numbers (6.0 K/9) or ground ball rates (45%) to back that up, this is looking like an ideal matchup for the Blue Jays bats.

His past four outings have been especially rough, and it’s surprising that he’s stuck in the starting rotation for this start. His last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Butler allowed six runs on eleven hits over 5.0 innings pitched. The start prior, six runs crossed on just nine hits over three and a third.

Expect to see Butler feature a 92-93 MPH fastball about 60% of the time with a slider as his go-to secondary pitch. He’ll also throws a curveball and changeup, but typically only turns to those a handful of times each game.

In Happ, the Blue Jays are also turning to an arm that is prone to the odd home run. He’s allowed 12 deep flies in 94.2 innings this season, but on the whole, has proven to be an excellent offseason addition that is not only eating up more innings than expected, but he’s making them count.

Happ is coming off three wins in three starts, but did struggle with control in his last outing which limited it to just five innings. Regardless, he managed to limit the Diamondbacks to just two runs by striking out eight. In his start prior, Happ pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Phillies, allowing just three hits.

He’ll have the opportunity to be the first Blue Jays starter to 10 wins.

Next: Game 3: Can Sanchez prove to be the anti-Coors