Blue Jays and Rockies meet in Tulowitzki’s homecoming: Full series preview

Game 1:  Monday, June 27th  –  8:40 p.m. ET

Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.70 ERA) vs.
Jon Gray (4-3, 4.80 ERA)

Here’s an interesting matchup off the top: two starters that are coming off abbreviated outings due to minor physical issues their last time out.

Jon Gray had his last start limited to just four innings due to arm fatigue, though he likely would have been yanked even if he were at full strength. The right-hander allowed four runs on three hits and four walks, but had been coming off a stretch of five stronger starts in late May and early June.

The 2013 third overall pick has often found trouble at Coors Field, however, sporting at ERA north of 5.00 and an inflated season-long HR/FB% of 17.6. His power arm has been as advertised, however, averaging over 95.0 MPH on his fastball and striking out 9.74 batters per nine innings.

Along with that fastball, which Gray turns to 57% of the time, he’ll also throw his slider 30% of the time and dabble with a curveball or changeup. His slider has been especially problematic for hitters this year with excellent movement.

Estrada, on the other hand, left his most recent start after six innings with back soreness. This was something that hampered Estrada in spring training and almost ate into his season, so the Blue Jays will be monitoring this closely. The team is reportedly considering a program to limit his workload in the second half of the season so that Estrada still has some gas left for the playoff stretch.

With 1.7 WAR through his first 14 starts, Estrada has already come close to his mark of 1.8 last season as he’s limited opponents to an incredible 0.98 WHIP. This has been aided by a .183 opponent’s BABIP, but it’s not all luck for Estrada, he’s been forcing weak contact (especially pop-ups) at an excellent rate.

The changeup artist has also been racking up the strikeouts at a much higher clip than last year with 8.10 K/9.

Coors Field doesn’t fit well with Estrada’s past reputation of being a fly ball (see: home run) pitcher, but he’s grown increasingly strong at avoiding that since joining the Blue Jays. Even when the long ball does strike, it’s rare that Estrada has runners on base.

Next: Game 2: Happ takes on an ideal matchup for Jays

Game 2:  Tuesday, June 28th  –  8:40 p.m. ET

J.A. Happ (9-3, 3.42 ERA)  vs.
Eddie Butler (2-4, 6.71 ERA)

Eddie Butler has been rocked at home this season. And, well, in general.

The right-hander has allowed 11 home runs in just 51.0 innings pitched, and without dominant strikeout numbers (6.0 K/9) or ground ball rates (45%) to back that up, this is looking like an ideal matchup for the Blue Jays bats.

His past four outings have been especially rough, and it’s surprising that he’s stuck in the starting rotation for this start. His last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Butler allowed six runs on eleven hits over 5.0 innings pitched. The start prior, six runs crossed on just nine hits over three and a third.

Expect to see Butler feature a 92-93 MPH fastball about 60% of the time with a slider as his go-to secondary pitch. He’ll also throws a curveball and changeup, but typically only turns to those a handful of times each game.

In Happ, the Blue Jays are also turning to an arm that is prone to the odd home run. He’s allowed 12 deep flies in 94.2 innings this season, but on the whole, has proven to be an excellent offseason addition that is not only eating up more innings than expected, but he’s making them count.

Happ is coming off three wins in three starts, but did struggle with control in his last outing which limited it to just five innings. Regardless, he managed to limit the Diamondbacks to just two runs by striking out eight. In his start prior, Happ pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Phillies, allowing just three hits.

He’ll have the opportunity to be the first Blue Jays starter to 10 wins.

Next: Game 3: Can Sanchez prove to be the anti-Coors

Game 3:  Wednesday, June 29th  –  3:10 p.m. ET

Aaron Sanchez (7-1, 3.33 ERA)  vs.
Tyler Anderson (0-1, 2.55 ERA)

Rookie left-hander Tyler Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Rockies, looking strong in all three of his starts. The 2011 first round pick took a slower road than most to the major leagues, but at this point, he’s more than enough for the Rockies.

The key to Anderson’s success thus far has been forcing ground balls at a rate of 62%, something he’ll hope to do against the powerful Blue Jays bats at Coors Field. His last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Anderson did allow eight hits over five and two-thirds innings, but he limited the damage to just a pair of runs by striking out eight. Across his 17.2 MLB innings so far, he’s fanned 18.

Anderson tops out around 91 MPH with his fastball but has mixed his pitches very evenly so far. His fastball, changeup, and slider usage all sit above 30%, so especially given that he’s a fresh face to the Jays hitters, this could prove to be a difficult one-off matchup (especially the first time or two through the order).

Next: Weekly AL East Recap: Jays struggle, but it's not all bad

Sanchez counters for the Blue Jays and is approaching the mid-season mark with just a single loss to his name. His ground ball rate has remained excellent at 58.1% and he’s already earned an impressive 2.0 fWAR.

The young right-hander has kept his velocity strong and shown no signs of slowing down as talks of his workload limit grow louder. He’s gone six innings with two runs earned in both of his last two starts, and his pitching style should fit ideally in the confines of Coors. Consider this the leading candidate for best pitching matchup of the series.