Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox: Full series preview

The Blue Jays enter their series in Chicago at 40-34, leaving them 2.5 games behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles

After the Jays offensive outburst last week and for the majority of the month of June, they dropped two straight to the Orioles and the first game in their short series against the Diamondbacks, but managed to respond Wednesday afternoon thanks to home runs from Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion.

They’ve snapped their little three-game losing streak, and head to Chicago to face the White Sox who are coming off a 3-1 road series win in Boston.

The home run from Tulo was the most encouraging of the three, due in part to the return of the real Martin since his early struggles, and the hot streak Edwin has been on. Since returning from the DL, Tulo is 5/14 (.357) with two home runs. If this is the start of the resurgence on the real Tulo, then the offence is set to receive another huge boost.

Many of Tulo’s numbers are close to what they were last year, and while he wasn’t great with the Jays after his arrival, he still put together a set of numbers that are excellent from a good defensive shortstop. Both his walk and strikeout rates are up, and despite his struggles, the silver lining exists in the fact that his ISO is up over 40 points, and his hard hit rate is still a very solid 34.1, which is only 0.3 points below his career rate.

Both ISO and hard hit rate are good indicators of regression and career decline due to age, and to see those numbers at a good place is a good sign his struggles aren’t indicative of a sharp career decline. His BABIP is a putrid .238, and a large part of that is due to his very low line drive rate of 11.4%, but it’s bound to turn around with consistent hard contact.

Line drive, ground ball, and fly ball percentages are more likely to move closer to career norms than how hard that contact may be, barring any approach or mechanical changes. To conclude this short summary of Tulo’s struggles at the plate, there are some good signs in his hitting profile, and his recent success could be a sign of things to come for the veteran.

Devon Travis has turned it on as of late and given a huge spark to the offence, and the run of success from Edwin and Michael Saunders combined with important contributions from Ezequiel Carrera has been what’s making the offence run. Jose Bautista’s return is unknown at the moment, but when he returns to health and form, you’re looking at the offence that could be the most dangerous in the league.

The Jays will send Aaron Sanchez, R.A. Dickey and Marcus Stroman to the mound in this three-game set, while Chicago responds with their own young, dynamic arm in Carlos Rodon in the first of three, followed by the familiar Miguel Gonzalez and the dominant Chris Sale.

For the Jays to have success in this series, they’ll need to take advantage of the first two matchups they get. Rodon has immense talent and very good stuff, but that’s failed to deliver consistent quality results so far in 2016, and the familiarity the Jays have with Gonzalez from his days with the Orioles should be a large advantage.

First up, we take a look Across the Diamond at the White Sox bats:

Next: Know your enemy: White Sox offence lacks punch

Across the Diamond: Chicago White Sox

As I previously mentioned, the White Sox are coming off a 3-1 series win against a strong team in the Red Sox to move them to one game under .500 at 36-37. They got off to a great start this year, but have struggled to stay afloat since.

In the last 30 days, their team wRC has slumped to third worst in the entire league with a mark of 82. Meanwhile, the Jays sit first atop that list with a number of 122. However, it isn’t the White Sox’s lineup that was leading them to victories early on, but that success hasn’t lasted.

Their 2.72 April ERA put them in second in the entire league, but that number has regressed to 4.18 and 5.31 in May June. Without a strong enough offence to carry them, their pitching has to be very good in order for them to have success.

With a couple good matchups against Rodon and Gonzalez, the Jays have an excellent opportunity to win another series. The matchup against Sale obviously isn’t ideal, as he’s arguably the toughest matchup in the entire American League, but taking two of three is more than attainable this weekend.

On the offensive side of things, Jose Abreu is the Sox best hitter, but his season long totals don’t show it. He’s hitting .267/.326/.446/.772 with a wRC+ of 102, but his June wRC+ is 144 as he looks to have turned his season around. He’s most definitely their biggest weapon at the plate.

Alongside him are a variety of hitters who bring a number of different looks at the plate. Adam Eaton provides a consistent approach at the plate while bringing good speed and contact. Melky Cabrera has arguably been their most consistent hitter this year, as he consistently puts good at bats together and makes solid contact.

Todd Frazier has hit for a ton of power and plate discipline, but his wRC+ is drained to 101 despite 21 HR’s because of his .201 average and .181 BABIP. His hard contact rate is well down from last years mark, and his batted ball profile doesn’t tend to favour a hitters BABIP, so if the Jays can avoid the home run ball with him, he shouldn’t pose a big issue.

Outside of those three alongside Abreu, they don’t offer much in terms of offensive potential. Brett Lawrie is hitting an ugly .230/.307/.389/.696 and has been striking out a ton. Dioner Navarro has been just about useless at the dish, and both Avisail Garcia and Tim Anderson don’t possess the potential to provide consistent threats at the plate.

This is a team that swept the Jays earlier in the year, but as of now, their offensive woes really drag them down, and unless they get good starting pitching, I give the Jays the upper hand in this series.

Next: An in-depth look at the three pitching matchups

Next: Game 1: Two exciting young starters go toe-to-toe Friday night

Game 2: June 25 @ 2:10 ET

R.A. Dickey (4-8, 4.08 ERA, 4.85 FIP) vs.
Miguel Gonzalez (1-2, 4.29 ERA, 4.12 FIP)

Dickey really hasn’t been very good this year, yet he’s managed to put together a decent 4.08 ERA because he’s been able to out-pitch his peripherals. Those peripherals suggest he’s been worse this year than the last couple, and that he is nothing more than a borderline MLB starter.

However, this is a guy who has consistently been better than what his peripherals would project, so it really doesn’t come as a huge surprise. At the same time, he’s fairly reliable to go six or seven innings while issuing three to five runs. But at the end of the day, this game won’t be decided by Dickey, it’s in the hands of the Jays offence against Gonzalez.

Mind you, Gonzalez has had some success against the Jays throughout his time with the Orioles, as he put together a 2.99 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) against them, including two solid starts last year.

His strikeout ability is below average, and he relies on mixing speeds and location to generate weak contact as opposed to getting swings and misses. He uses a six pitch repertoire, throwing a four-seam, sinker, cutter, slider, curve and split at least 5% this year. His three most important offerings are his fours-eam, cutter and split, as he generally goes to the splitter or high fastball with two strikes.

His repertoire is diverse, but none of the offerings are plus; therefore, his ability to keep guys off balance is key for his success. He’s virtually the opposite of Rodon, as he relies on command and diversity as opposed to nasty stuff and two go-to offerings.

The Jays haven’t had a bunch of success against him, but I still think this is an excellent matchup for them. He hasn’t been great since joining the Sox, they’re very familiar with him, and this is a combination I like for Jays hitters Saturday afternoon.

Next: Game 3: Tough matchup for the Jays in the series finale

Game 3: June 26 @ 2:10 ET

Marcus Stroman (6-3, 5.23 ERA, 3.88 FIP) vs.
Chris Sale (12-2, 2.83 ERA, 3.28 FIP)

While I like the other two matchups for the Jays, I can’t say the same about this one. Stroman has really been struggling to miss bats and generate weak contact like he was at the start of the year, and he needs to show he can make adjustments in the big leagues.

His repertoire is so diverse and dynamic, but he consistently falls into patterns. I don’t think he needs a mechanical change, but instead, he needs to rethink his strategy against hitters. He doesn’t use his whole arsenal effectively, and he needs to start diversifying the looks he gives.

Two starts ago was a step in the right direction, but last week against the Orioles was more of the same problem as he got tuned on balls left in the middle portion of the plate when opposing hitters were expecting it.

Next: Blue Jays top pitching prospect update: Greene, Maese and more

On the other hand, Sale is absolutely sickening. His average velocity for both his sinker and fourseam are down this year, but that’s due in part because he isn’t pumping high velocity early in counts or starts anymore, instead he’s focusing on command and getting weak contact early in counts. His max velo is still north of 99 MPH, so he definitely still has the ability to blow it by any hitter.

His four-seam, slider and change all get whiffs above 10%, and he can use all three against both lefties and righties. He’s a workhorse, he’s had success against the Jays in the past, his stuff is some of the best in the league, and he is simply one of the best in the game. Let’s hope he has an off day on Sunday.