Can Blue Jays stay hot against the Orioles? Full series preview

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (June 17 – 19)

It’s finally time to say that the Blue Jays are truly rolling. I don’t think they’re at the point where they were post-deadline last season, but it’s close. The offence is firing on all cylinders, led by Edwin Encarnacion who is absolutely crushing the ball as of late, the pitching has continued to impress, and the bullpen has solidified itself.

They’ve caught up to the Orioles and Red Sox in the AL East and they look like a team that can contend with anyone in the league. This is the type of team we’ve been expecting since the season started, and once Troy Tulowitzki returns, you’re looking at the lineup that led them to the ALCS last year.

After yesterday’s offensive outburst, their team wRC+ sits at 103, which places them in eighth place, the highest it’s been all year. Over the last 14 days, that number is an outstanding 131, and the aforementioned Encarnacion is leading the way. We’re witnessing Edwin go on one of his patented hot streaks.

Since the beginning of June, he’s raised his OPS from .760 to .863 in 47 AB’s thanks to his .289/.414/.809/1.222 slash rate with 7 HR, 17 RBI and a sparkling 9:8 BB:K ratio. His discipline has improved tenfold, and the power spike has been tremendous. His wRC+ is up to 130 on the year now, inching closer to last year’s mark of 150.

Josh Donaldson has also been fabulous lately after limping through the majority of May. Donaldson’s June slash rate rits at .318/.475/.682/1.156 with 3 HR, 14 RBI and a 14:9 BB:K ratio. With these two guys in the middle of the lineup, it’s a scary matchup for any pitcher.

Despite Jose Bautista’s struggles, the lineup has been fantastic. Michael Saunders continues to be a consistent machine when healthy, Kevin Pillar has been on fire at the dish lately, moving his season long wRC+ to 90 after his two home runs night, just three points under last year’s mark. That 90 wRC+ is less than impressive on it’s own, but when it’s coming with the arguably the league’s best defender, it’s something that carries huge value.

Devon Travis seems to be coming around after cutting his rehab assignment short leading to struggles, and Russell Martin continues to improve his numbers. Like I said, this lineup isn’t at the point it was during the stretch run of last year, but it’s certainly showing signs of getting there for the first time this year.

This weekend’s series against the Orioles offers a couple of tantalizing matchups for Jays hitters. Mike Wright has struggled against the Jays in the past, including his last start, and is simply putting together a poor campaign. Yovani Gallardo has had success against the Jays in the past, but had a rough start to the year before hitting the DL. This will be his first start since returning as he takes the place of Ubaldo Jimenez in the rotation.

Before we break down the three pitching matchups, let’s take a look across the diamond at the Blue Jays’ formidable opponent:

Next: Orioles rotation holding them back

Game One: June 17 – 7:05 pm ET

Aaron Sanchez (6-1, 3.38 ERA, 3.47 FIP) vs.
Mike Wright (3-3, 5.31 ERA, 5.02 FIP)

Aaron Sanchez is coming off one of his uglier starts of the year against these same Orioles. He ended up getting the win, but he was hit fairly hard and gave up four home runs. However, the start before that was arguably his best start of his career as he struck out 12 and only walked one.

The Orioles are a very talented offensive team, but the four home runs Sanchez gave up against them are an outlier. His stuff gets plenty of ground balls and whiffs, and the home run has never been anything that’s given him problems.

His peripherals are fantastic, as he’s been able to increase his strikeout totals as his K/9 has improved to 8.75 on the year. His BB/9 is a very solid 3.09, and his GB% is one of the best in the league at 58.6%. That’s a recipe for success, and he’s yet to even consistently incorporate his changeup into his arsenal.

His future health is obviously very important, but it’s a true disappointment that he will eventually be moved to the bullpen later this year. He’s been the ace of the staff, arguably with Marco Estrada, and he’s been a very important factor in the Jays success this year.

The aforementioned Wright has decent stuff and good velocity, and the former 3rd-rounder in 2011 has had some success in the minor leagues, but it hasn’t translated to the major leagues for the 26-year-old.

He’s struggled to miss bats while also struggling to pound the zone with any consistency. In his career against the Blue Jays, he’s thrown 17.2 IP and given up 24 H, 14 ER, 15 BB, and 12 K. They’ve crushed him and his results against other teams don’t suggest that it should change tonight. Expect more of the same from the Jays offence against Wright.

Next: Yovani returns from the DL and gets Jays in first start back

Game Two: June 18 – 4:10 pm ET

R.A. Dickey (4-7, 4.16 ERA, 4.81 FIP) vs.
Yovani Gallardo (1-1, 7.00 ERA, 4.03 FIP)

Gallardo has had some success against the Jays in the past, but I don’t really foresee him providing a big challenge for Jays hitters. His strikeout ability has all but deteriorated, his walk rate is below average, and he’s fresh coming off the DL so rust could be an issue.

He’s the type of pitcher who nibbles on the edges and gets hitters to expand the zone, not to get whiffs, but in order to get weak contact. He’s not the pitcher he once was, and he won’t attack hitters or get many swing and misses on pitches inside the zone, so the strategy must be to be patient and force him to go inside the zone with his average stuff.

Dickey has continuously gotten better this year, as his ERA per month has gone from 6.75 to 3.20 and to 2.45 in June. The peripherals he’s posted this year obviously don’t support a 2.45 ERA, and his K%, BB% and FIP have gone in the opposite direction of his ERA.

It just goes to show the unpredictability of the knuckleball. The movement it creates, the way individual hitters react to it, and the results it derives from start to start can be completely different.

Dickey has made a habit of turning it on as the year goes on, and I’m not 100% sure if that’s due to weather or comfort on Dickey’s behalf, but it’s clearly become a pattern. Hopefully this can continue nonetheless.

Next: Stroman looks to build off last start against the Phillies

Game Three: June 19 – 1:35 pm ET

Marcus Stroman (6-2, 4.76 ERA, 3.87 FIP) vs.
TBA

To everyone’s surprise, Stroman has been the rotation’s biggest weakness this season, especially as of late, as his June ERA of 6.00 is ugly. He took a step in the right direction with his last start, going 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.

His low K/9 of 6.12, and high hard-hit percentage of 31.2% suggests that he’s relying on the sinker too much. He’s thrown it 56.28% of the time this year, and he goes to it in every type of situation. It has a lot of movement, but unless you find the edges of the strike zone consistently, MLB hitters who are sitting on a pitch, and see it in the zone, are likely to do damage. He’s fallen into a pattern of using the sinker with too much frequency, and it’s clear that hitters are sitting on it.

Even with the success of his last start, he only got seven swing and misses and still used the sinker with plenty of frequency. He’s shown the ability in the past to use his vast repertoire in a variety of fashions, but he’s gone away from that this year.

The key to pitching success is keeping hitters off balance and messing up timing. He has six pitches he’s thrown effectively in the major leagues, but he’s refusing to use all of them. The sinker is key to his success, no doubt about it, but I’d like to see him use all of his pitches more effectively moving forward.

Next: Blue Jays weekly top pitching prospect update

Baltimore does not yet have a starter officially listed, but expect to see Chris Tillman on the mound who last pitched June 14th.

The right-hander has been a welcome surprise for the Orioles this season, entering this series with a 9-1 record and 2.87 ERA. Tillman is striking out batters at a career-high rate, 8.7 per nine innings, thanks to a fastball that’s seen a bump in velocity and effectiveness.