Can Blue Jays stay hot against the Orioles? Full series preview

Across the Diamond: Baltimore Orioles

Outside of the recent 3-1 series loss against the Jays, the Orioles have been playing some very good baseball as of late. They limped through the end of May, losing seven of nine at the end of the month, but since the turn of the month they’ve won every series outside of the Jays one.

They won two in a row against the Red Sox, took two of three from the Yankees, swept the Royals, lost 3-1 to the Jays, and most recently, they took down the Red Sox in a three-game set. It’s an impressive string of baseball against a good set of teams. It’s a testament to how the Jays are playing to see them take three of four against them.

The Orioles strengths and weaknesses have become glaringly obvious. Their offence can win them a string of games, as they possess a number of different weapons that can do damage night in and night out.

The Jays staff has become very familiar with what Chris Davis and Adam Jones can do to opposing pitching. Not to mention Manny Machado, who’s grown into one of the best players in the game, and Mark Trumbo, who’s revitalized his career by punishing baseballs.

Baltimore’s season wRC+ of 107 sits near the top of the league and it’s been there for the duration of the year.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, is the O’s rotation. They’ve put together a 4.78 ERA, which puts them in 22nd place. The struggles in their rotation are truly what’s keeping them from being one of the game’s elite teams. The offence is dangerous, the defence is excellent, and the bullpen is one of the game’s best. Yet their rotation consistently gives opposing hitters easy matchups, and that’s what keeps them back.

Now for the pitching matchups:

Next: Game 1: Wright poses great matchup for scorching Jays offence

Game One: June 17 – 7:05 pm ET

Aaron Sanchez (6-1, 3.38 ERA, 3.47 FIP) vs.
Mike Wright (3-3, 5.31 ERA, 5.02 FIP)

Aaron Sanchez is coming off one of his uglier starts of the year against these same Orioles. He ended up getting the win, but he was hit fairly hard and gave up four home runs. However, the start before that was arguably his best start of his career as he struck out 12 and only walked one.

The Orioles are a very talented offensive team, but the four home runs Sanchez gave up against them are an outlier. His stuff gets plenty of ground balls and whiffs, and the home run has never been anything that’s given him problems.

His peripherals are fantastic, as he’s been able to increase his strikeout totals as his K/9 has improved to 8.75 on the year. His BB/9 is a very solid 3.09, and his GB% is one of the best in the league at 58.6%. That’s a recipe for success, and he’s yet to even consistently incorporate his changeup into his arsenal.

His future health is obviously very important, but it’s a true disappointment that he will eventually be moved to the bullpen later this year. He’s been the ace of the staff, arguably with Marco Estrada, and he’s been a very important factor in the Jays success this year.

The aforementioned Wright has decent stuff and good velocity, and the former 3rd-rounder in 2011 has had some success in the minor leagues, but it hasn’t translated to the major leagues for the 26-year-old.

He’s struggled to miss bats while also struggling to pound the zone with any consistency. In his career against the Blue Jays, he’s thrown 17.2 IP and given up 24 H, 14 ER, 15 BB, and 12 K. They’ve crushed him and his results against other teams don’t suggest that it should change tonight. Expect more of the same from the Jays offence against Wright.

Next: Yovani returns from the DL and gets Jays in first start back

Game Two: June 18 – 4:10 pm ET

R.A. Dickey (4-7, 4.16 ERA, 4.81 FIP) vs.
Yovani Gallardo (1-1, 7.00 ERA, 4.03 FIP)

Gallardo has had some success against the Jays in the past, but I don’t really foresee him providing a big challenge for Jays hitters. His strikeout ability has all but deteriorated, his walk rate is below average, and he’s fresh coming off the DL so rust could be an issue.

He’s the type of pitcher who nibbles on the edges and gets hitters to expand the zone, not to get whiffs, but in order to get weak contact. He’s not the pitcher he once was, and he won’t attack hitters or get many swing and misses on pitches inside the zone, so the strategy must be to be patient and force him to go inside the zone with his average stuff.

Dickey has continuously gotten better this year, as his ERA per month has gone from 6.75 to 3.20 and to 2.45 in June. The peripherals he’s posted this year obviously don’t support a 2.45 ERA, and his K%, BB% and FIP have gone in the opposite direction of his ERA.

It just goes to show the unpredictability of the knuckleball. The movement it creates, the way individual hitters react to it, and the results it derives from start to start can be completely different.

Dickey has made a habit of turning it on as the year goes on, and I’m not 100% sure if that’s due to weather or comfort on Dickey’s behalf, but it’s clearly become a pattern. Hopefully this can continue nonetheless.

Next: Stroman looks to build off last start against the Phillies

Game Three: June 19 – 1:35 pm ET

Marcus Stroman (6-2, 4.76 ERA, 3.87 FIP) vs.
TBA

To everyone’s surprise, Stroman has been the rotation’s biggest weakness this season, especially as of late, as his June ERA of 6.00 is ugly. He took a step in the right direction with his last start, going 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.

His low K/9 of 6.12, and high hard-hit percentage of 31.2% suggests that he’s relying on the sinker too much. He’s thrown it 56.28% of the time this year, and he goes to it in every type of situation. It has a lot of movement, but unless you find the edges of the strike zone consistently, MLB hitters who are sitting on a pitch, and see it in the zone, are likely to do damage. He’s fallen into a pattern of using the sinker with too much frequency, and it’s clear that hitters are sitting on it.

Even with the success of his last start, he only got seven swing and misses and still used the sinker with plenty of frequency. He’s shown the ability in the past to use his vast repertoire in a variety of fashions, but he’s gone away from that this year.

The key to pitching success is keeping hitters off balance and messing up timing. He has six pitches he’s thrown effectively in the major leagues, but he’s refusing to use all of them. The sinker is key to his success, no doubt about it, but I’d like to see him use all of his pitches more effectively moving forward.

Next: Blue Jays weekly top pitching prospect update

Baltimore does not yet have a starter officially listed, but expect to see Chris Tillman on the mound who last pitched June 14th.

The right-hander has been a welcome surprise for the Orioles this season, entering this series with a 9-1 record and 2.87 ERA. Tillman is striking out batters at a career-high rate, 8.7 per nine innings, thanks to a fastball that’s seen a bump in velocity and effectiveness.