Blue Jays Series Preview: Can Jays continue run of success against AL East?

The Blue Jays enter play at 26-26 (.500), five games behind the Boston Red Sox

The Jays couldn’t complete the three game sweep of the Red Sox on Sunday, but you can’t complain with a second consecutive series win against an AL East opponent. Not only was it an important series victory, but they won the second game in memorable fashion. Those are the type of games that bring teams together, and let’s hope they can use it moving forward.

The return of Devon Travis to the lineup and the return of Russell Martin’s competency have given the Jays batting order more depth and punch one through nine. The loss of Troy Tulowitzki doesn’t help that, but a 15-day DL stint is inevitable for Tulo, and it’s good that it happened when Travis was healthy.

Their team wRC+ is steadily improving and getting closer to the mark they posted last year. It’s currently at 98, and while it still has far to go, they have a 111 number over the last week, so it’s on its way up.

On the pitching side of things, this last week wasn’t as good for the Jays. Over 53 IP, they put together a 4.08 ERA and 4.45 FIP, but their 4.9 rotational fWAR on the season is still 8th in the whole league, so their isn’t much to gripe about with regards to their staff.

This is another huge series, and if they can continue to win series against divisional opponents they will continue to make up ground on the Sox. They managed to win two of three against the Yankees last week in New York, and now in Toronto they look to continue their 2016 success against the veteran Yankee squad.

Before breaking down the individual pitching matchups, let’s first take a look across the diamond…

Next: Yankees bats continue to struggle

Across the Diamond: New York Yankees

The Yankees offensive struggles continued this week, as they posted a weak 86 wRC+ against the Jays and Rays. They managed to take of two of three from the Rays, but two of those victories saw the Rays offence score one run as the Yankee pitching staff carried them to victory.

I explained the importance of getting ahead early in last week’s series preview against the Jays, and in the games they won, they had leads heading into the late innings. The Yankees trio of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman is ridiculous. If you get to them behind in the game it’s going to be nearly impossible to come back.

The Yankees’ offence is providing little to no resistance for opposing starting pitching. The only hitters doing anything productive on a consistent basis lately have been Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Neither of them are the players they once were, but Ellsbury grinds through at bats, still has very good speed, and employs good bat to ball skills and plate discipline. The 32-year-old is now hitting .287 with a .348 on-base percentage.

Beltran has 12 HR’s on the year as his power has received a large spike this year. His .537 SLG and .274 ISO are likely to regress to his 2015 totals of .471 and .195, but there’s no questioning he’s on a roll lately and provides one of the few challenges on the Yankees.

The rest of the lineup is full of struggling youngsters and declining veterans who are having a hard time putting together any level of production that resembles their former selves.

Now on to the pitching matchups…

Next: Nova offers great matchup for Jays hitters

Game 1: May 30 – 7:07 ET

Ivan Nova (3-2, 3.65 ERA, 4.25 FIP) vs.
Marco Estrada (2-2, 2.76 ERA, 3.82 FIP)

In last week’s series preview against the Yankees, I delved into why Nova was a great matchup for the Jays lineup, and while they didn’t touch him up as much as I would have imagined, they still got to him for four runs through 6.2 IP, including Martin’s first home run of the year.

Nova struck out eight Blue Jays in that start as well, as his changeup looked better than what we’ve seen in the past from him, but overall, he still lacks big strikeout potential. He’s been able to suppress the home run ball fairly well this year, but he has given up a home run in each of his last four starts.

His sinker is a good pitch and results in plenty of ground balls, and his curveball is his go to pitch in order to get punch-outs. The Jays have seen plenty of him throughout the years, and they’ll need to work themselves into hitter’s counts and pounce on sinkers up in the zone.

Estrada’s start last week against the Yankees resulted in a decent final line of 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, but it could have been a lot worse than the three earned runs. The 4:2 BB:K ratio isn’t what you like to see, and he was lucky the two homers were both solo shots.

He did a good job of getting out of jams unscathed, but it’s not a recipe for future success. You’d like to see Estrada return to his typically excellent control, and produce a few more swing and misses.

He’s had problems with the home run in the past, but it hasn’t been an issue so far this season up until last week’s start, so it will important to monitor that going forward.

Next: CC has revitalized himself in 2016

Game 2: May 31 – 7:07 ET

CC Sabathia (3-3, 2.83 ERA, 2.97 FIP) vs.
JA Happ (6-2, 3.20 ERA, 4.26 FIP)

Happ carved up the Yankees in their latest tilt last week, as he got the nod over Aaron Sanchez against a left handed heavy Yankee lineup. He went 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K and got over 60% ground balls. He’s only had one bad start all year, and the Yankees are pitiful against LHP, so there should be more success for Happ in this one.

CC Sabathia has been remarkable so far for the Yankees this year, putting up very good numbers and already matching his 2015 fWAR of 1.2. He’s introduced a cutter this year, and he’s using it over 29% of the time, after only mixing it in very rarely over the last two years.

It’s become a weapon for him and he’s used it in all situations. It’s also made the rest of his repertoire a little bit better as well, as he’s able to rely less on his slider and curve, giving hitters another pitch to worry about. His changeup has been excellent as it’s getting over 20% whiffs, and it’s become a go to strikeout pitch.

Obviously, CC isn’t the same pitcher he once was and his fastball velocity is way down to 88 mph. But, he’s become adept at setting up hitters, mixing speeds and locations, and keeping guys off balance.

The results have been good for him so far this year, and it’s up to the Jays to put a dent in that 2.3% HR/FB ratio.

Next: Sanchez continues to impress