Blue Jays Series Preview: Can Jays continue run of success against AL East?

Across the Diamond: New York Yankees

The Yankees offensive struggles continued this week, as they posted a weak 86 wRC+ against the Jays and Rays. They managed to take of two of three from the Rays, but two of those victories saw the Rays offence score one run as the Yankee pitching staff carried them to victory.

I explained the importance of getting ahead early in last week’s series preview against the Jays, and in the games they won, they had leads heading into the late innings. The Yankees trio of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman is ridiculous. If you get to them behind in the game it’s going to be nearly impossible to come back.

The Yankees’ offence is providing little to no resistance for opposing starting pitching. The only hitters doing anything productive on a consistent basis lately have been Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Neither of them are the players they once were, but Ellsbury grinds through at bats, still has very good speed, and employs good bat to ball skills and plate discipline. The 32-year-old is now hitting .287 with a .348 on-base percentage.

Beltran has 12 HR’s on the year as his power has received a large spike this year. His .537 SLG and .274 ISO are likely to regress to his 2015 totals of .471 and .195, but there’s no questioning he’s on a roll lately and provides one of the few challenges on the Yankees.

The rest of the lineup is full of struggling youngsters and declining veterans who are having a hard time putting together any level of production that resembles their former selves.

Now on to the pitching matchups…

Next: Nova offers great matchup for Jays hitters

Game 1: May 30 – 7:07 ET

Ivan Nova (3-2, 3.65 ERA, 4.25 FIP) vs.
Marco Estrada (2-2, 2.76 ERA, 3.82 FIP)

In last week’s series preview against the Yankees, I delved into why Nova was a great matchup for the Jays lineup, and while they didn’t touch him up as much as I would have imagined, they still got to him for four runs through 6.2 IP, including Martin’s first home run of the year.

Nova struck out eight Blue Jays in that start as well, as his changeup looked better than what we’ve seen in the past from him, but overall, he still lacks big strikeout potential. He’s been able to suppress the home run ball fairly well this year, but he has given up a home run in each of his last four starts.

His sinker is a good pitch and results in plenty of ground balls, and his curveball is his go to pitch in order to get punch-outs. The Jays have seen plenty of him throughout the years, and they’ll need to work themselves into hitter’s counts and pounce on sinkers up in the zone.

Estrada’s start last week against the Yankees resulted in a decent final line of 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, but it could have been a lot worse than the three earned runs. The 4:2 BB:K ratio isn’t what you like to see, and he was lucky the two homers were both solo shots.

He did a good job of getting out of jams unscathed, but it’s not a recipe for future success. You’d like to see Estrada return to his typically excellent control, and produce a few more swing and misses.

He’s had problems with the home run in the past, but it hasn’t been an issue so far this season up until last week’s start, so it will important to monitor that going forward.

Next: CC has revitalized himself in 2016

Game 2: May 31 – 7:07 ET

CC Sabathia (3-3, 2.83 ERA, 2.97 FIP) vs.
JA Happ (6-2, 3.20 ERA, 4.26 FIP)

Happ carved up the Yankees in their latest tilt last week, as he got the nod over Aaron Sanchez against a left handed heavy Yankee lineup. He went 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K and got over 60% ground balls. He’s only had one bad start all year, and the Yankees are pitiful against LHP, so there should be more success for Happ in this one.

CC Sabathia has been remarkable so far for the Yankees this year, putting up very good numbers and already matching his 2015 fWAR of 1.2. He’s introduced a cutter this year, and he’s using it over 29% of the time, after only mixing it in very rarely over the last two years.

It’s become a weapon for him and he’s used it in all situations. It’s also made the rest of his repertoire a little bit better as well, as he’s able to rely less on his slider and curve, giving hitters another pitch to worry about. His changeup has been excellent as it’s getting over 20% whiffs, and it’s become a go to strikeout pitch.

Obviously, CC isn’t the same pitcher he once was and his fastball velocity is way down to 88 mph. But, he’s become adept at setting up hitters, mixing speeds and locations, and keeping guys off balance.

The results have been good for him so far this year, and it’s up to the Jays to put a dent in that 2.3% HR/FB ratio.

Next: Sanchez continues to impress

Game 3: June 1 – 7:07 ET

Masahiro Tanaka (3-0, 2.89 ERA, 3.22 FIP) vs.
Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.29 ERA, 3.24 FIP)

Sanchez’s latest start was an excellent example of a young starter maturing and growing as a major leaguer. He didn’t have his best command, his changeup wasn’t there, making him a two-pitch pitcher, but he managed to escape jams and grind through 6.2 innings against the best lineup in the league.

His line of 6.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K might not look like one of his better starts of the year, but against a lineup that has been the best in the league by a wide margin, you’ll take that every single time.

It’s not that his command was poor, not by any means, but he didn’t seem to be locating within the zone like he has in other starts this year. He was able to get away with it because his stuff is so good, and in particular, his curveball was ridiculous. That’s probably the best curve we’ve seen from Sanchez all year.

He heavily relied on it, throwing it 28 times in the start, which was a season high, and he got 7 whiffs, also a season high. He used it with two strikes to get strikeouts, and he used it early in the count to keep hitters off the sinker. He was basically a two-pitch pitcher in this one, but since his stuff is so dynamite, he was able to generate weak contact, get the ball on the ground, get swing and misses, and avoid the home run ball.

His current fWAR sits at 1.4, which is a testament to how he’s performed and how important he’s been for the Jays. That 1.4 mark is tied for 20th in all of the baseball, out of 103 qualified starters. His strong 3.29 ERA is supported by a good FIP of 3.24, very good peripherals and encouraging batted ball data.

He’s made big strides with regards to his walk rate, as it sits at 3.15, nearly two walks better than the 5.05 mark he posted last year as a starter. His K/9 has also improved from 5.73 to 7.95, and I think there’s room to grow in that regard. His 59.7 GB% is excellent, third in the entire league, only behind Marcus Stroman and Jaime Garcia, and his 18.8 FB% is the lowest of all qualified starters.

He was skipped over in his last start in an effort to give him some more rest between starts, but I think it was fairly obvious that the Jays brass was avoiding him against the lefty heavy Yankee lineup. Despite that decision, If he continues to keep the ball down and mix in off-speed pitches enough, he shouldn’t have any trouble with the Yankees lineup that has struggled to score runs.

Next: Blue Jays Minor League Standouts from last week

Tanaka enters this game on quite a roll himself. His last two starts have stretched over 14 IP, and he’s only allowed 1 ER while walking 2 and striking out 8. After his elbow injury, he’s become more of a command expert than a guy who can strike out the whole lineup.

His command is excellent, as his 1.65 BB/9 sits 10th in all of baseball. He uses an array of pitches in any situation or count, and he turns to his splitter in two strike counts. What he’s done since joining the Yankees in 2014, is that he’s been able to get the ball on ground with more frequency and control contact as opposed to blowing away hitters with his premium stuff.

The Jays hitters will have to attack his fastball when he throws in the middle third of the plate. His cutter, splitter, and slider are all getting whiff rates around 20%, which gives him plenty of options to keep hitters off balance and get ahead in counts. It’s easy to say they should attack fastballs in the zone, but it’s especially important against a pitcher who nibbles on the edge of the zone with a multitude of pitches.