Blue Jays Series Preview and Pitching Matchups: Jays @ Yankees

Across the Diamond

On the offensive side of things, the Yankees lineup is a very veteran heavy group. Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mark Teixeira have all been around for plenty of time and don’t offer the same ceiling they used to due to deteriorating physical skills, but they still possess good plate discipline, the ability to put strong at bats together, and good barrel to ball skills.

Despite them struggling on the offensive side of the ball for much of the year, they still have the ability to grind out at bats, and find away to scrape across runs due to their veteran presence. That’s exactly what happened in the first game of their series earlier this year, with the Yankees winning 3-2 in the first game.

They didn’t blow the Jays away in any aspect of the game, except in the late innings with their bullpen, but they managed to scrape across an extra run while being able to hold the Jays bats off. In the latter two games, the Jays put up seven and four runs on offence, and we’re able to keep the Yankee bats in check, giving up four combined runs in those games.

If the Jays can do a decent job on offence by getting to their starters early in the game, then they should be able to handle the veteran Yankee hitters to the point where they can win the series.

So far this year, the Yankees don’t have any standouts offensively, but instead have a group of hitters sitting in the 105-120 wRC+ range. Gardner, Beltran, Ellsbury, McCann, and Starlin Castro have put up numbers between 103 and 122, but their offence as a whole is being dragged down by Chase Headley at 62, Didi Gregorius at 74, Teixeira at 63, and Aaron Hicks at 50.

It’s an offence that doesn’t have the firepower the Jays’ offence possesses, and it still has the black holes that give pitchers a break. This isn’t a lineup that strikes fear into the opposing pitcher, and the Jays’ pitchers will need to attack them at all times.

Ultimately, the Yankees are on their best streak so far this year, so from that perspective, the Jays get them at an unlucky time, but I don’t believe they have the rotation or the lineup to contend with the Jays. If they give a lead to their bullpen, they’re more than likely to win the game, and if the Jays can prevent that, they have a good chance to walk away with a second consecutive series victory.

Let’s dive in to the game-by-game pitching matchups:

Next: Game 1 Preview: A mismatch of styles

Game 1: May 24 – 7:05 ET

R.A. Dickey (2-5, 4.50 ERA, 4.46 FIP) vs.
Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 4.44 ERA, 3.77 FIP)

This is an interesting matchup in the sense that you have one of the most powerful starting pitchers, from a velocity perspective, against one of the least powerful starters. Eovaldi can consistently run his fastball into the upper 90’s late into his starts, and he compliments that with a power splitter and slider.

He’s always flashed plus stuff and a low walk rate, but it’s never really facilitated into anything more than a back-end starter, mid rotation starter at best. He put together FIP’s of 3.37 and 3.42 the last two season, but there always seemed to be a part of his game that needed work.

However, this year, it looks like he’s beginning to put it together. His strikeouts are up to an impressive 8.32 K/9, while reducing his walk rate to 1.85 BB/9. Both of these improvements come from a better command of all of his pitches. Despite having very good stuff since he entered the big leagues, he never struck out hitters at high rate. His walk rate was always solid because of good control, meaning he was able to put the ball in the strike zone at a high rate, but that also meant lots of contact.

What he’s done now is improved his command, meaning that while he’s throwing the ball in the zone like he always has, where that ball is placed within the zone has improved. Not only is he doing this with his fastball, but with the rest of his repertoire as well. He’s able to locate within the zone with more effectiveness, thus reducing his walk rate, amount of contact given up, and increasing his chances of getting whiffs in and out of the zone.

Once his HR/FB rate of 16.7% normalizes closer to his career rate of 7.7%, that ERA will begin to move closer to his xFIP number of 3.25. All of a sudden, you’re looking at a guy who can be a 2-3 starter in a major league rotation.

He uses a four pitch mix of a very hard fourseam fastball that averages 97.67 mph, a slider, splitter and curve. He throws the fastball 47% of the time, while mixing in the slider and splitter over 20% of the time. The curve is more of a show me pitch that he mixes in about 7% of the time, but it’s the slider and splitter he relies on to get strikeouts.

This is the type of pitcher you want to be aggressive against, and attack the fastball early in the count. As a hitter, being behind in the count against a guy who can throw 100 and has two strikeout pitches in the high 80’s is very difficult to defend against. Thus, getting to him before he has the chance to expand the zone is important. This will definitely be the toughest test for the Jays offence, so it would be fantastic to see them hit the ball well in game one.

Dickey enters this one pitching basically the way you should expect him to throw. His peripherals are right in line with what he’s done over the past couple of years, and his innings are valued by quantity over quality. He was getting on a roll before slipping in his latest start, and it’s been the home run ball that has been his biggest downfall. His 13.87 HR/FB is a little inflated and is due to come down.

Next: Game 2 Preview: Can we get this man some support?

Game 2: May 25 – 7:05 ET

Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.61 ERA, 3.25 FIP) vs.
Ivan Nova (3-1, 3.26 ERA, 4.29 FIP)

Estrada continues to prove his worth. He consistently adds new weapons to his game to ensure his success at the major league level, and it’s truly a treat to watch right now. He’s done nothing but improve on a season where he threw 180 innings of 3.13 ERA baseball. He’s knocked his ERA down over have a point and over a whole run on his FIP.

He’s done so by generating more swing and misses, and continuing to get better with the home run ball. His 1.2 WAR is already close the 1.8 number he posted last year, and he’s making the Jays brass look fantastic for that offseason’s signing.

He didn’t face the Yankees in the series earlier this year, but I love this matchup for him. If his command is there, he can utilize his three plus pitches to shred the Yankee hitters. Even though his improvements against the home run ball are valid, that’s probably still his biggest weakness, but the Yankees have struggles to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

For Jays hitters, the matchup against Nova is always one I love. He’s put up a solid ERA since joining the rotation, but this is a guy the Jays have seen a lot over the last little while and they’ve hit him to a tune of .286/.361/.435/.796 in 70 IP.

This year, he’s struggled to get a decent strikeout rate and he’s had a hard time controlling the home run, which is a recipe for success in the Jays lineup.

The Jays lineup is built to strikeout a fair amount but also hit for plenty of power, so they can be carved by big strikeout guys who control the home run. Nova isn’t that type of pitcher, and that represents an opportunity for the Jays hitters to feast.

Next: Game 3 Preview: Young and old clash in the finale

Game 3: May 26 – 4:05 ET

Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.20 ERA, 3.31 FIP) vs.
C.C. Sabathia (3-2, 3.41 ERA, 3.16 FIP)

Sanchez’s command can waver at times, but there’s no doubting his ability to miss bats and generate weak contact. His three pitch mix of sinker, curve and changeup is impressive, as all three offerings have excellent movement, and when his command is there, he can be downright dominant.

His lefty-righty splits were well documented heading into the year, and while he’s been able to mitigate that as a starter so far this year, lefties are definitely still having more success, which poses a potential problem against the lefty-heavy Yankees.

In his first start against the Yankees earlier this year, he didn’t seem to have a problem with the lineup the Yankees put forward, as he went 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K in a quality start, and if his command is with him, you should expect more of the same from him.

Everything looks good from Sanchez, the stuff is obviously there, command is much better, peripherals support the strong ERA, his batted ball data is fantastic, and he continues to improve every time out. It’s exciting to watch him grow into a legitimate top of the rotation type of starter.

Next: The Saunders extension: Are we there yet?

C.C. Sabathia has gone through a well documented set of trials and tribulations, and while he’s putting a together a decent season while admirably working through his off-field issues, this is another matchup I like for Jays hitters.

His stuff is a shadow of what it used to be, and he’s been getting lucky this year with a deflated HR/FB ratio, which is dramatically helping his ratios. His latest two start against the A’s and Orioles were impressive, going a combined 13 IP, while giving up a single ER, issuing one walk, and striking out 14 batters.

He’s on a roll, but I don’t think you can realistically expect this from him start in and start out. I’m giving the Jays offence a considerable advantage in this one.