Blue Jays preview: The search for answers heads to Minnesota

The Blue Jays are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays

There’s never been a better time for a trip to Minnesota.

The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off five straight losses and were just swept by the Tampa Bay Rays at home, losing those three games by a combined score of 31-7.

After Toronto’s starting pitching carried them throughout some early-season struggles, a string of difficult outings from J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, and R.A. Dickey left the bats and bullpen unable to carry their share of the load.

Thankfully, the Twins represent the softest possible landing spot as their 10-29 record ties them for the worst in baseball with the Atlanta Braves.

“The Twins are in complete disarray,” said Michael McKee of Puckett’s pond. “Every facet of their game is faulty. They’ve optioned some of their best defenders and pretty much their entire outfield back to AAA because they couldn’t hit (Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario). If the Jays can put the ball in play regularly, the Twins’ defense will frequently give them a helping hand.”

As a team, Minnesota ranks 28th in the league with 141 runs scored, better than only the Philadelphia Phillies and Braves. Their team average sits at .237, putting them slightly ahead of Toronto.

Minnesota’s pitching staff has struggled greatly, with a 4.98 ERA that puts them second-worst in baseball ahead of the Cincinnati Reds. Opponents have hit .282 against the Twins pitchers, the highest mark in the MLB.

Across the Diamond: Minnesota Twins

Miguel Sano entered 2016 with lofty power expectations, but has yet to hit his stride. The 23-year-old Dominican slugger posted 18 home runs with a .918 OPS in 90 games last season, but is hitting just .232 (.756 OPS) with seven home runs.

The usual suspects of Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier are falling behind their expected production levels, too. Mauer’s power numbers have fallen off significantly, but his on-base percentage remains an excellent tool. With 26 walks compared to 25 strikeouts, Mauer has worked a .383 on-base percentage. The second baseman Dozier is hitting just .214.

Eduardo Nunez has been a bright spot with his .340 average and seven stolen bases. Korean rookie Byung-ho Park has been very strong, too, leading the Twins with nine home runs and an .869 OPS.

Now to the pitching matchups, where the Blue Jays hold an advantage on paper.

Next: Estrada opens against the former near-Jay

Game 1:  Thursday, May 19th   –   8:10 ET

Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.89 ERA) vs.
Ervin Santana (1-2, 3.38 ERA)

The Blue Jays will open this series against the man [allegedly] worth passing around a hat for: Ervin Santana.

Minnesota’s right-hander has produced an awful lot of buzz for a pitcher with a career ERA north of four and a peak single-season fWAR of 2.9 since 2008. Regardless, he’s opened up the 2016 campaign relatively strong.

Santana was roughed up two outings ago in Chicago against the White Sox, allowing three earned runs on seven hits over just three and a third innings. He quickly corrected himself last week against the Cleveland Indians, however, delivering a quality start with six innings pitched, one earned run, and five strikeouts.

He’s succeeded this season by avoiding hard-hit balls. His soft-contact rate currently sits at 27.5%, nearly double his career rate of 16.1%. His velocities have not wavered, either, with his fastball still sitting around 92 to 94 miles per hour. Santana will also feature a slider and changeup. That slider was once his signature “out” pitch, but he’s still searching for it early in 2016.

Marco Estrada will counter for the Blue Jays and will be tasked with saving a beleaguered bullpen after the difficult Tampa series.

Estrada is coming off an unsteady performance of his own, where he allowed four runs on five hits over six innings against the Texas Rangers. He also walked four batters that night, expressing his displeasure with the strike zone.

He was very strong in his two outings prior, however, especially against the Dodgers where he allowed just one earned run in seven innings while striking out eight.

Despite it only being mid-May, Estrada has already produced an fWAR of 0.8 and is well on his way to surpassing last season’s total of 1.8. He has been forcing ground balls at a 42.9% rate, well above his 32.2% from last season. The right-hander has also begun to feature his cutter more frequently, with usage currently sitting at 14.6%.

Next: Blue Jays grab a Duffey for Friday night's game

Game 3:  Saturday, May 21st   –   2:10 ET

J.A. Happ (5-1, 3.40 ERA) vs.
Pat Dean (0-1, 4.50 ERA)

J.A. Happ was one of baseball’s best starters through the first month-plus, but things came unravelled against the Rays.

The tall lefty lasted just two innings, allowing eight runs on seven hits as he appeared unable to miss the Tampa bats. This should be treated as an outlier, however, given his track record since arriving in Pittsburgh at last season’s trade deadline.

His career numbers prior to that point do suggest that regression is on the way, but Happ’s recent success is not a thing of luck and chance. There have been legitimate changes made, and with some adjustments and improved pitch selection, Minnesota should be a strong opportunity for a bounce-back.

Fellow left-hander Pat Dean will be making his first major league start on Saturday after making a long relief appearance against the Detroit Tigers earlier in the week to cover for Jose Berrios.

Dean allowed two earned runs in those five and a third innings, but did give up 10 hits. In his only other MLB relief outing of 2016, he pitches two and two-thirds allowing two runs on four hits.

Expect to see a fastball around 90 miles per hour from Dean, which he’ll throw nearly half the time. He’ll also throw a mid-80s slider one-third of the time and mix in the odd changeup, though he doesn’t have much of a velocity dip between that and his hard stuff.

Over 179 innings at the triple-A level last season, Dean had a 12-11 record with a strong 2.82 ERA.

Next: Stroman and Hughes in a series finale mismatch

Game 4:  Sunday, May 22nd   –   2:10 ET

Marcus Stroman (4-1, 4.23 ERA) vs.
Phil Hughes (1-6, 5.70 ERA)

The staff ace is coming off the toughest outing of career, one that marked his first loss in 16 starts.

Stroman allowed 13 hits against the Rays, a career high. Seven runs crossed as Stroman only managed two strikeouts, so he’ll be looking for a hard reset agains the Twins in the series finale.

“You really have to put it in perspective and know that,” Stroman told MLB.com following the game, “and do everything you can to wash the start whether it be good or bad, and focus the next four days preparing for the next one. I realize I’m going to have days like that. I never get discouraged regardless of the outing and never take my starts into the next one.”

Phil Hughes is still listed as the tentative starter for the Twins, but that could change later today during his throwing session. He’s been pitching through shoulder fatigue recently and was removed early from his last start.

Next: Latest roster notes on Travis, Morales, and Leon

That outing went just fine, though, as Hughes allowed just one earned run over six and a third innings. His three starts prior were more difficult, with Hughes allowing 15 earned runs. That outing went just fine, though, as Hughes s over just 11 innings.

Hughes has allowed seven home runs this season and is coming off 29 allowed last year, so this could be a good opportunity for the Blue Jays bats to shine.