Blue Jays series preview and pitching matchups: Home for the Rays

The Blue Jays head home from Texas for three games against the Tampa Bay Rays

The Toronto Blue Jays return home for a three-game set against the division rival Tampa Bay Rays on Monday after their fight-filled affair in Texas. Toronto is 3-3 in the last week and 8-6 in the month of May.

Tampa Bay opened the month hot, sweeping the Angels in Los Angeles, but they have dropped five of their last six and currently sit fourth in the American League East.

Despite Toronto’s offensive struggles, the starting rotation continues to keep the roster afloat around the .500 mark. J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, and R.A. Dickey are scheduled to start against the Rays.

Following the placement of reliever Brett Cecil on the disabled list with a left triceps injury and the recall of Dustin Antolin, rookie Chad Girodo remains the only left-hander available. Before we look at each individual pitching matchup for the series ahead, let’s first look across the diamond at the Rays.

Across the Diamond: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa isn’t winning with their bats. The Rays have scored 128 runs in 2016, putting them third-last in baseball ahead of only the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.

They’ve done this in a very top-heavy way, though, as they curiously are tied for fourth in all of baseball with 50 team home runs. This helps to counterbalance their league-worst average of .221 and low on-base percentage of .296.

Logan Forsythe has been placed on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in his shoulder, so the Blue Jays will miss out on one of Tampa’s most dangerous offensive contributors. The second-baseman had been hitting .308 with a .922 OPS.

Brandon Guyer has been the star at the plate, though, with his average still sitting at .338. The left-fielder isn’t necessarily producing much by way of power or extra-base hits, but balls are finding grass for him. Steven Souza Jr. leads the team with eight home runs while Evan Longoria has 18 runs batted in and 12 doubles.

Monday’s series opener pits two strong lefties against one another in Happ and Drew Smyly. On to the full previews of the three pitching matchups ahead…

Next: Game 1 Preview: Happ looks to remain a sneaky ace

Game 1:  Monday, May 16th   –   7:07 ET

J.A. Happ (5-0, 2.05 ERA) vs.
Drew Smyly (1-4, 3.63 ERA)

Few pitchers in baseball are throwing better than J.A. Happ in 2016, and he’ll take the mound on Monday night with an opportunity to both earn his sixth win of the year and bring his season ERA below 2.00.

Tampa can represent an ideal matchup for any pitcher — though Happ will need to watch the fly balls with the Rays’ power — and the Blue Jays’ lefty is coming off arguably his two strongest starts of the season.

His last time out against the San Francisco Giants, Happ pitched eight and two-thirds innings of shutout ball, allowing just six hits and striking out five. Prior to that against the Rangers at home, Happ allowed one earned run over seven innings with another five strikeouts.

These deep starts are extremely valuable from Happ, who is averaging over seven innings per outing. Depth of start was a worry for Happ, who hasn’t topped 172 innings in his career, so his ability to work deep into games will allow Blue Jays manager John Gibbons to use two of his stronger relievers as opposed to stretching out to three or more.

Coming from the other side will be Drew Smyly, a fellow lefty who is enjoying a fine 2016 of his own.

Smyly is looking for his first full season in Tampa Bay after coming over in 2014 as part of the deal that sent old friend David Price to Detroit. His season has been interesting, though, sandwiching some very strong pitching between two rough outings in his first start and most recent start against Seattle.

Against the Mariners last week, Smyly allowed six runs on ten hits over five innings. Prior to that, however, he did work five consecutive starts without allowing more than two earned runs. He also has a pair of 11-strikeout games under his belt in 2016.

Next up, a battle of the aces…

Next: Game 2 Preview: The marquee matchup

Game 3:  Wednesday, May 18th   –   7:07 ET

R.A. Dickey (2-4, 4.31 ERA) vs.
Jake Odorizzi (0-2, 3.83 ERA)

R.A. Dickey is heating up, and it’s coming at a point much earlier than his mid-season turnaround from last season.

His last outing in Texas marked one of his best as a Blue Jay, lasting eight strong innings of shutout ball, allowing just three hits and striking out six. Beyond the simple scoreline, too, his knuckleball looked truly on.

Dickey added some extra velocity behind his signature pitch against the Rangers, remarking after the game in Texas that the humidity and game conditions were ideal on that night. He was also locating the ball very well in the upper regions of the zone, producing some swings-and-misses from the Rangers batters.

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The right-handed Odorizzi is enjoying a fine season of his own despite still searching for his first win.

Odorizzi owns a 3.83 ERA through his first eight starts, but is coming off a difficult outing against the Oakland Athletics last week. He allowed five earned runs on seven hits over four innings that day, but looked good in his three starts prior.

He did allow two home runs against Oakland, so with a low ground ball rate and a hard-contact percentage that has increased this season, the Blue Jays could be looking at an opportunity to flash their power.