Blue Jays Series Preview: Time for the offence to breakout?

Across the Diamond: Texas Rangers

Just like the Jays, the Rangers have been stuck in and around the middle of the pack all year long from an offensive perspective. Their wRC+ of 97 is only one point above the Jays, and their .263/.321/.415 puts them right around league average.

Their lineup is an intriguing mix of young and veteran talent, but the player that came into the year as the best left-handed hitter in the lineup is dragging them down. Prince Fielder is hitting a putrid .198/.260/.298 for a 44 wRC+. Here we are worried about Troy Tulowitzki.

Despite Fielders struggles, Rougned Odor has been a fantastic blend of power and speed from a weak offensive position, Nomar Mazara is showing that he definitely belongs in the big leagues, and they’re getting roughly what they should expect from veterans Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre.

It’s a lineup I like quite a bit, but much like the Jays, they’ve been unable to consistently put together games of strong performances. Despite that, and the fact that their bullpen has been much worse than the Jays, they sit at five games above .500.

The numbers would skew the Jays fairly heavily, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve won a number of close ball games, and the Jays have been on the losing side of many of those games.

Unfortunately, the Jays miss Derek Holland in this series, or the Rangers are simply doing anything they can to avoid his against the Jays, but they get Cesar Ramos instead, who shouldn’t provide any more of a challenge than Holland would.

It really is time for the Jays to break out here. They get three favourable matchups in a very hitter friendly ballpark, and the time has come for them to emerge as one of the league’s top offensive units.

Now, let’s dive in to the individual pitching matchups for each game…

Next: Is Dickey about to turn it around?

Game 1: May 13 – 8:05 ET @ Texas

R.A. Dickey (1-4, 5.18 ERA, 4.43 FIP) vs.
Martin Perez (1-2, 3.51 ERA, 4.64 FIP)

Perez threw five scoreless against the Jays in their first series earlier this year, as he struck out four while allowing seven baserunners. It was a solid start, and he flashes plus stuff at times, but his peripherals this year leave plenty to be desired. His strikeouts-per-nine sits at an underwhelming 5.49, and his BB/9 is an ugly 5.00. It’s a never a good sign when a pitcher’s strikeout and walk totals are near each other.

He throws hard, with an average 4-seam velocity of 93.80 and sinker average of 93.55, and can get both pitches up to 97 when he needs to, and the sinker is particularly adept at getting both whiffs and ground balls. His changeup is also very good, as he uses it as his go-to offspeed and two strike pitch, but he lacks a strong third pitch. He throws both a slider and curve, but neither are very effective swing and miss offerings, only generating 6.86 and 7.25 whiff percentages and Perez doesn’t use them frequently.

He was always touted as a top prospect due to his upside and velocity, getting as high as #17 on Baseball America’s top 100, and #15 on Baseball Prospectus’. But, he’s never really broken through like many scouts thought he would. His career strikeout rate is a pedestrian 5.86, and he’s never been able to create an above third offering to go with his sinker and change up.

What he does do well is get the ball on the ground with a high frequency. His 2016 GB% of 54.3% is very good, and he controls the home run ball fairly well. But he shouldn’t be giving a lineup with the talent of the Jays a hard time.

They need to be patient with him. His BB/9 suggests some serious command issues in 2016, and a patient approach will force him to come into the zone or walk too many hitters to be successful. Furthermore, even if he is pounding the zone early in the count, his lack of strikeout potential doesn’t give the hitter a big disadvantage in a two strike count.

Despite the weak ERA, Dickey has been very Dickey-like. His FIP and xFIP are right in line with what he’s done in the last two years, but his ERA is bloated due to higher BABIP and lower LOB%. There’s a percentage of luck that goes into every pitcher’s performance from every single kind of pitcher, but with Dickey, the role that luck plays is on another level.

He’s so hard to predict from start to start, and the variables are so great with the knuckleball that it’s difficult to say with any confidence when he’s going to go on one of his patented streaks. His last two starts have been the best of his short season, though.

He’s gotten into the 7th inning in each start, allowed two or less earned runs, and gotten double-digit ground ball totals for the first time in 2016.

If there’s any indication towards R.A. Dickey turning it around and putting together a string of quality starts, that’s probably it. Furthermore, his start against the Rangers earlier this year was a success, as he went 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K.

Next: Estrada continues proving doubters wrong

Game 2: May 14 – 8:05 ET @ Texas

Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.39 ERA, 3.32 FIP) vs.
Colby Lewis (2-0, 3.20 ERA, 5.13 FIP)

Estrada continues to show that last year wasn’t a fluke, as his pair of starts last week combined for two earned runs over 13 innings pitched with 11 strikeouts and three walks. His fastball and changeup combination offers incredible deception and timing problems for hitters, and he’s consistently been able to use his cutter and curveball in all counts.

His command is still strong despite the walk rate that’s climbed a touch, and he’s developed into the type of pitcher who relies on setting hitters up instead of blowing them away with dynamite stuff.

Not only has Estrada had a great amount of success this year, but he’s also done it against a number of offensively gifted teams. He’s faced Boston twice, and then Baltimore, Texas, the White Sox and the Dodgers once each. Those are teams with piles of talent, and he’s done an admirable job of handling and mitigating what they’re able to do at the plate.

Something I’ve noticed in Estrada’s arsenal that could be playing a role in his continued success is the development of his cutter. He’s taken some velocity off of it, registering at 87.05 compared to 88.41 last year, but he’s more than doubled the amount of horizontal break it gets. According to Brooks Baseball, his cutter moved on average 0.75 inches in 2015, while this year it’s moving 1.85. That’s a pretty sizeable jump and it’s turned the pitch into a much better offering for Estrada.

He uses the cutter 14.86% of the time, an increase on last year’s 8.53 total, and it has a whiff percentage of 10.11%, which is way up on last year’s 4.20. Clearly, he’s developed a sharper cutter, that has more movement to his glove side, giving him the opportunity to use it more in all situations and turn to it for swing and misses. It’s another weapon on top of the fastball and changeup combo he uses so well.

Lewis was dealing against the Jays in the latest series, striking out seven batters over seven innings while only issuing one walk and giving up five hits. He did give up three earned runs, but it was one of his better starts of the year against a lineup that should do more damage against him.

He offers five different pitches, with a fourseam, sinker, change, slider and curve, so he offers a diverse look, but only one of his pitches is a decent swing and miss option. His slider offers the best potential for him to get whiffs, as it owns a 19.50 whiff percentage, but the other four offerings don’t register anything over 6.59.

He’ll rely heavily on both his fourseam and slider, while mixing in the rest of his pitches. He doesn’t get the ball on the ground with great frequency, and he struggles with the home run ball. This is a matchup you love to see for the Jays, but as I mentioned before, on paper is far different from on the field, so you can’t take anything for granted.

Next: Sanchez looks to continue success as a starter

Game 3: May 15 – 3:05 ET @ Texas

Aaron Sanchez (3-1, 2.58 ERA, 3.41 FIP) vs.
Cesar Ramos (0-2, 5.11 ERA, 6.57 FIP)

Watching Sanchez start this year has truly been a treat. His velocity is staying high deep into starts, he continues to get plenty of groundballs, his command is improving, and his repertoire continues to diversify as he consistently gets swing and misses. It’s great to see one of the most heralded Jays prospects of recent memory do so well, and now he could sit near the top of the rotation with Marcus Stroman for years to come.

In his latest start in San Francisco, his command wasn’t 100% there, as he walked five batters, but his pure stuff got him out of jams as he only gave up three hits and struck out five Giants.

He’s the type of pitcher that can get away without having his best command because his stuff is that good, so when his command is there, he can be downright dominant.

Along with his great batted ball ratios (20% LD, 59.2% GB, 20.8% FB), he hasn’t been giving up very much hard contact. His hard contact rate of 24.6% sits 15th among all qualified pitchers, sitting right between fellow young stars Joe Ross and Danny Salazar, and above pitchers such as Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard.

Take hard contact% for what you will, but it’s unquestionably a good sign to see Sanchez’s name with guys like that.

Next: HIstory lessons: The Jays broadcasters in their playing days

As far as Ramos is concerned, I’m not sure what the Jays’ hitters could be asking more for. They get a guy who has been struggling to be a below average major league reliever, nevermind a starting pitcher. If he’s starting, it should be in AAA, so the Jays get a gift here. They need to take advantage of this matchup.

Primarily a relief pitcher through most of his career, Ramos has made one start in three appearances this season and owns a 5.11 ERA over 12.2 innings pitched.